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San Francisco 49ers’ quarterback Brock Purdy looks on against the Philadelphia Eagles

The San Francisco 49ers and quarterback Brock Purdy are all but certain to reach an agreement on a lucrative contract this extension this offseason. The two parties have verbally committed to each other long-term, the only question is what the inevitable price tag will be.

Knowing how the 49ers operate, contract negotiations with Purdy will drag on longer than necessary in hopes of penny-pinching. However, that strategy does not have a history of working when it comes to paying assumed franchise quarterbacks. 

Predictions for Purdy’s contract vary from $30 million per year to $55 million, with some analysts believing the team should not pay the former MVP finalist at all.

Yet, one 49ers’ beat reporter predicts Brock Purdy to break the glass ceiling and reset the quarterback market entirely.

Predicting Brock Purdy’s New Contract

In his latest article, David Lombardi of the San Francisco Standard details how Brock Purdy could be in line for a massive-year, $305 million contract extension. The potential deal would make Purdy one of the NFL’s highest-paid players, averaging a record-breaking $61 million annually — a remarkable leap for the 2022 NFL Draft Mr. Irrelevant. 

Lombardi points to the recent failures of playoff quarterbacks Justin Herbert and Jordan Love as a reason for Purdy’s monumental raise. Both quarterbacks put together strong years, justifying an above-$52 million annual salary. However, in the playoffs, it was a different story. Combining for 22 points and seven total turnovers, Herbert and Love’s abysmal Wild Card performances further highlight Purdy’s value.

In six career playoff games, Purdy has a 96.2 passer rating, six touchdowns, one interception, and a 4-2 record. Lombardi points out that Purdy has the third-highest EPA since 2018, ranking behind Matthew Stafford and Patrick Mahomes.

Even in what is considered a down year, Purdy still finished 2024 with the seventh-highest QBR in the NFL, leading Lombardi to ask, “Why can’t the Iowa State product reset the quarterback market?“

Debate over Purdy’s Worth?

The potential $305 million contract has sparked debate. Critics argue that Brock Purdy’s short track record does not yet justify such a significant investment. Pro Football Talk analyst Chris Simms called the valuation excessive , believing Purdy is nowhere near an elite quarterback and the 49ers would be foolish to pay him like one.

Although Purdy’s predictive total value would rank second among NFL players, Lombardi explains how the 49ers can ease the financial commitment due to prorated bonuses.

SF Standard

“By rule, signing bonuses and certain option bonuses can be prorated for up to five years against the cap, so the 49ers can utilize both in the staggered structure illustrated above to keep Purdy’s 2025 cap hit at about $15 million. Over the past half-decade, they’ve deftly surfed the wave of a rising salary cap, carrying cap space from year to year while pushing expenses into a future with higher limits. Think of it as a zero-interest loan against the cap.”

Lombardi adds that Brock Purdy’s total guarantees would amount to $143.6 million, ranking third among quarterbacks. He justifies the number by pointing out Purdy’s success compared to the currently top-five highest-paid quarterbacks.

“No one else on that list has finished No. 1 in QBR, a statistic that does its best to disentangle QB performance from team factors as much as possible (Purdy has also ranked No. 1 in EPA per play since joining the league). Only Burrow, whose team has also lost a Super Bowl, has more playoff wins (five). Purdy’s four postseason victories equal the total notched by Prescott, Love, Lawrence, and Tagovailoa combined.”

Time will tell what the San Francisco 49ers actually pay Brock Purdy this offseason, but based on Lombardi’s prediction, the NFL could have a newly crowned highest-p