Starr’s 7 Questions: Would the Red Sox lose in an arbitration hearing against Jarren Duran?

It’s Red Sox Rookie Development Program week and pitchers and catchers report to spring training in less than a month. Seven questions as baseball’s return draws nearer:

1. Why are the Sox haggling with Jarren Duran?

For most people, including athletes in the early years of careers with very little job security, $500K is a life-changing sum. For a multibillion-dollar sports franchise such as the Red Sox, it’s a drop in the bucket.

It’s also how much stood between the Red Sox and Jarren Duran at last week’s deadline to avoid going to arbitration. Duran filed at $4 million, his club offered $3.5 million.

Come on.

Duran was one of the best all-around players in the game last season. He led the majors in plate appearances, at-bats, doubles, triples, and was nominated for a Silver Slugger and Gold Glove. Not only was he a first-time All-Star, he was named the game’s MVP.

The Red Sox avoided arbitration with their other three eligible players, Tanner Houck, Kutter Crawford, and Garrett Crochet, and even settled well under the projected sums with Houck and Crawford. They were also willing to offer Juan Soto $700 million a month ago and have barely spent in free agency, but can’t shell out an extra $500K for Duran?

It’s no secret that arbitration is a recipe for disaster. In their respective media availabilities at Fenway Fest on Saturday, manager Alex Cora described it as “a bad process” and said “it doesn’t make sense,” and team president and CEO Sam Kennedy called it a “necessary evil.” Both expressed how glad they are to not be involved in the actual ordeal.

Yet, here the Red Sox go, nonetheless. Barring an agreement before the hearings begin at the end of the month, they will force Duran to sit with them and listen to a team representative tell him and everyone else in the room exactly why he isn’t worth the money. Then an independent arbiter will decide whether it’s monetarily true or not. Either way, he’ll have to sit there and take it.

Unsurprisingly, the practice doesn’t engender much goodwill with players. After Corbin Burnes’ hearing with the Brewers two years ago, he told reporters, including the AP, “There’s no denying that the relationship is definitely hurt.”

“You kind of find out your true value,” Burnes explained. “They won it. But when it came down to winning or losing the hearing, it was more than that for me.”

With Duran, in particular, the Red Sox are playing an especially dangerous and unnecessary game. He’s been very open about struggling with mental health and self-esteem. Getting picked apart by his employer right before spring training is among the worst ways to kick off a new season on the job. And as the team’s leadoff man, his performance sets the tone for every game. If he’s struggling, the Red Sox will struggle.

The Red Sox might be able to beat Duran in a hearing and save some of their precious pennies. But if they can’t avoid sitting down at that table with him, they’ll lose no matter what. And it will cost them a lot more.

2. Which top prospects from the Rookie Development Program will make their MLB debut in 2025?

With the annual Red Sox Rookie Development Program underway and less than a month until pitchers and catchers are due to report to spring training, it’s getting easier to imagine a 2025 season full of top prospect debuts. Roman Anthony, Kristian Campbell, perhaps Marcelo Mayer?

3. Would the Red Sox really sign a top prospect to a pre-debut extension?

By Baseball America’s estimation, Anthony is currently the No. 1 prospect in baseball. Earlier this month, MLB executives voted the Red Sox farm system as the best in the league.

Does that mean Craig Breslow is going to jump the gun and ink Anthony or Campbell to a pre-debut extension? Not likely. Those talks haven’t happened yet, the two top prospects told WEEI at Fenway Fest.

While such contracts are very affordable compared to what a player can command if he proves to be a top talent at the big-league level, they’re still risky. There’s no way to know how a player will pan out. Fans once considered Michael Chavis and Bobby Dalbec the incoming saviors of the Red Sox offense. Scott Kingery was a Top 100 prospect when the Phillies signed him to a six-year, $24 million contract before his MLB debut. Kingery struggled in various stints at the big-league level, and has only played one game in the majors since undergoing season-ending shoulder surgery in July ‘21. In November, the Angels acquired him from the Phillies for cash considerations.

It’s far more likely the Red Sox do something along the lines of Ceddanne Rafaela’s contract. The defensive standout got called up late in ‘23 and played 28 games, then signed an eight-year, $50 million extension (which maxes out at $62 million over nine years) last April.

4. Why wasn’t Roki Sasaki interested in the Red Sox?

Sasaki’s posting window closes on Jan. 23, but for Boston, that window closed long ago. As of last week, the Red Sox hadn’t even been granted an in-person interview with the Japanese pitching phenom and his agents. Instead, ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported Monday that the Los Angeles Dodgers, San Diego Padres, and Toronto Blue Jays are the finalists to sign Sasaki.

5. Will Masataka Yoshida play the outfield in 2025?

It turns out Yoshida’s relegation to designated hitter last season turned out to be more due to a nagging injury than his defensive abilities. Now that he’s rehabbing from the necessary surgery, the Red Sox are hoping to use him in both roles, thereby opening up more flexibility in the DH role.

The Red Sox certainly prize defensive versatility and positional flexibility. At Fenway Fest on Saturday, Cora announced that speedy infielder David Hamilton will spend some time in the outfield during spring training. Marcelo Mayer, the organization’s top shortstop prospect, will broaden his horizons by playing some second and third base.

And if the Red Sox want to trade Yoshida, showing teams that he offers more than just a bat will certainly help.

6. Is Kristian Campbell psychic?

Add ‘Predict Celtics score’ to the long list of Campbell’s talents. In a video on the Red Sox X account of him and Anthony attending Sunday night’s game at TD Garden, Campbell predicted the Celtics would put up 120 points.