The focus for Kyle Shanahan and John Lynch this offseason is to identify the root causes of this year’s failures and fix them.
For Shanahan, the top of his fix-it list is likely red zone touchdowns. The Niners fell from first to ninth. For Lynch, it falls to a defensive line that needs to add a run stuffer and a pass rusher.
Breaking it down by position, offense today, defense tomorrow.
OFFENSE
OL The top of the fan wish list annually, but this year it isn’t justified. The highest-rated linemen Will Campbell and Kelvin Banks have short arms and are expected to move inside, reducing their value. Several analysts moved off Banks recently due to technique concerns. Josh Simmons is the top tackle but he’s coming off knee surgery. Aireontae Ersery is a 6-6, 330-pound mountain, not the Shanahan type even though he moves well for his size.
The best OL value is led by an interior lineman in the early second, Donovan Jackson of Ohio State. Additional guards to watch in the late 2nd to early 3rd include Tate Ratledge of Georgia and Grey Zabel of North Dakota State, who is getting talk as the top center. He plays guard, but will likely be given center reps at Mobile.
QB The decision makers are set on Brock Purdy as the present and future. Drafting his backup is not a high priority compared to the other team needs. Jaxson Dart of Ole Miss is a fan favorite, but the league questions the transition from an RPO offense and Shanahan doesn’t like one-read quarterbacks. The Niners may decide Tanner Mordecai has more upside than this draft class after the 2nd round.
RB The 49ers led the league in red zone scoring with prime Christian McCaffrey last year and fell hard this year without him, so drafting Boise State’s Ashton Jeanty at 11 fits. He had over 2,600 yards rushing and is a threat to score every time he touches the ball. His receiving stats were poor this year but solid last year. Jeanty checks all the boxes but one, eight fumbles in two years. That gets a veto from Shanahan.
Given this year’s deep RB class, the Niners will likely pick a back later. The best fits include D.J. Giddens of Kansas State and Dylan Sampson of Tennessee in the late 3rd or 5th round sleeper Brashard Smith of SMU.
WR With $60 million invested in Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel, and two draft picks last year, picking a receiver at 11 cannot be justified. Don’t be surprised if a receiver is picked later though, it’s a talented group and they will be BPA later in the draft. Jayden Higgins of Iowa State and Pat Bryant of Illinois are taller receivers that would make good system fits, they are projected for late 3rd-early 4th.
TE In my view, there are three tight ends who are receiving weapons that can develop into inline blockers. The 49ers need to come out of this draft with one of them: Tyler Warren of Penn State 6-6/257, Colston Loveland of Michigan 6-5/245, and Mason Tayor of LSU 6-5/255.
George Kittle is 31, the 49ers need to find his future replacement. Adding a tight end can allow the Niners to play 12 personnel and move on from Kyle Juszczyk.
Warren is a scoring machine with 17 red zone touchdowns in the last two years. This year eight receiving touchdowns and four rushing, one each from longer than 20 yards. The Niners need red zone touchdowns, here’s the guy.
Loveland is two years younger than Warren and faster, but also lighter. Warren’s success is built on explosion and power, the question is if Warren can maintain physical dominance in the NFL.
Loveland’s production is hurt by playing with a lesser quarterback. A reminder that production hurt Sam LaPorta’s draft stock, but the league’s best GM Brad Holmes of Detroit saw the skills, Iowa’s weak QB, and projected LaPorta’s success in the NFL.
I believe Loveland has the higher ceiling, I also believe Shanahan doesn’t care about horizons he wants now and will prefer Warren. Loveland is comped to Buffalo’s Dalton Kincaid, Warren by some to a poor man’s Gronk.
Things to watch for: performance in the practices at Mobile, Warren’s 10-yard split compared to Loveland, their lifting reps at Indy, and weight.
The wild card is Taylor. If Warren and Loveland go elsewhere, Taylor is a possible Plan B in the 3rd. He has 55 catches for 556 yards and two touchdowns. Taylor has the power of an inline blocker but lacks the top end speed to be a receiving threat deep.
There is a cliff from Warren and Loveland to Taylor, and an abyss from Taylor to the rest. Fannin Jr. of Bowling Green has gaudy stats but he’s 230 pounds. Helm of Texas isn’t a blocker. Briningstool of Clemson is a body catcher. The tight end class after the top three is a mine field.
The finalists at 11: Tyler Warren (Penn State) TE and Colston Loveland (Michigan) TE.
Are they BPA at 11? No, but they’re close. Warren is projected at 14 by Tankathon, Loveland at 19. Several teams need an impact tight end and after Brock Bowers’ rookie year success with the Raiders, the league will be looking for their version. That makes a trade down risky.
A trade up is warranted given the available talent, but I expect the Niners have PTSD on trading into the early 1st after the Trey Lance deal. A trade out for a veteran star is possible but unlikely.
So the offense puts Warren and Loveland up as their finalists at 11. The candidates on defense tomorrow.
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