John Means is a free agent for the first time in his career, though the southpaw entered the open market under a cloud of uncertainty following Tommy John surgery last June. It was the second TJ procedure in a little over two years’ time for Means, which has limited him to 52 1/3 Major League innings over the 2022-24 seasons.

Despite this checkered health situation, a reunion with the Orioles still seems like a possibility. MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko writes that the O’s “haven’t closed the door on” Means, and “it would be a mistake to downplay their interest. Re-signing him is a possibility.” This interest might not translate into a contract in the immediate future, as Means is expected to only reach a deal later in the offseason given that he’ll be sidelined for most or all of the 2025 campaign.

In all likelihood, Means and his reps at the Wasserman Agency are looking for the type of backloaded, two-year contract that has become the norm for pitchers recovering from a long-term injury. Such deals commonly see the pitcher receive a small guaranteed salary in the first year with the understanding that most or all of the season will be spent rehabbing, and more guaranteed money is backloaded into the second year when the pitcher is hopefully healthy and ready to go.

An 11th-round pick for Baltimore in the 2014 draft, Means has spent his entire pro career in an Orioles uniform, posting a 3.68 ERA over 401 innings in the orange-and-black. Means’ tenure has been highlighted by a second-place finish in AL Rookie of the Year voting in 2019, an All-Star selection in that same season, and a no-hitter in 2021. This early success came while the Orioles were in their deep rebuild, and Means was one of the few bright spots on an otherwise dismal roster.

Unfortunately for Means, his injury problems have kept him from playing much of a role in the Orioles’ emergence from that rebuild. He underwent his first Tommy John surgery in May 2022 and returned in time to make four starts in September 2023, but elbow soreness kept him off Baltimore’s playoff roster. He didn’t make his 2024 season debut until May 4, and Means made another four starts before UCL damage again led to another long layoff.

The usual 13-15 month recovery period for Tommy John procedures would put July 2025 as the best-case scenario for Means’ return date. Of course, the fact that this is his second TJ surgery (and in such a short span of time) could very well push Means to the longer end of that projected timeline, and even one setback could keep him off a Major League mound entirely in 2025.

This is purely speculative given the lack of details on Means’ recovery process, but a quicker return to the majors might be possible if he aimed to return as a reliever for the 2025 season. Rather than rebuild the arm strength needed for a starters’ workload, Means could focus on just working one or two innings at most, in order to perhaps make him ready for July or August. Means has started 73 of his 78 career games, and would well return to starting down the road, once he has knocked off some rust with a few relief outings in 2025. Or, since Means is turning 32 in April and has such a lengthy injury history, he could even consider a full-time move to the bullpen as a way of keeping him healthy and extending his career.

Re-signing with the O’s might also make relief pitching more of a direct short-term option for Means, since cracking Baltimore’s bullpen could be easier than working his way into what is a pretty crowded rotation depth chart. Charlie Morton and Tomoyuki Sugano have been signed this season to join Zach Eflin, Grayson Rodriguez, and Dean Kremer as the top starting options, with Albert Suarez likely operating as a swingman, and several depth arms (Trevor Rogers, Cade Povich, Chayce McDermott, Brandon young) at Triple-A. Kyle Bradish and Tyler Wells also aiming to return from UCL surgeries of their own — Bradish a TJ procedure and Wells an internal brace procedure — at some point in 2025.

The Orioles obviously know Means’ medicals better than any other team, and their continued interest in the left-hander indicates some confidence that Means will be able to recover in some form. Bringing Means back on a two-year deal also lines up a starting option for 2026, which is noteworthy since Morton, Sugano, and Eflin are all slated to become free agents next winter.