MLB notes: A Pete Alonso contract prediction plus more players who could sign short-term deals

Now that first baseman Pete Alonso’s camp has told the New York Mets he is willing to accept a three-year contract with opt-outs, other prominent free agents are contemplating whether to follow suit.

At least two — right-hander Jack Flaherty and outfielder Anthony Santander — are open to considering short-term deals with high average annual values, according to league sources briefed on their discussions.

Spring training camps open in less than a month. A free agent such as Flaherty or Santander probably would not settle for a shorter deal before exhausting other alternatives. But with certain players, a pivot such as the kind made by four Scott Boras clients last offseason eventually might be appealing.

Left-hander Blake Snell turned his opt-out into a lucrative long-term deal. Third baseman Matt Chapman used the threat of an opt-out to do the same. First baseman/outfielder Cody Bellinger and left-hander Jordan Montgomery, on the other hand, stayed on their present contracts.

Flaherty, 29, is the youngest of the 15 domestic starting pitchers on The Athletic’s free-agent Big Board and the only one who is unsigned. His lingering presence on the open market qualifies as something of a surprise. He was ineligible to receive a qualifying offer because he was traded in the middle of the season and thus is not subject to draft-pick compensation.

Teams perhaps want to see Flaherty put together two consecutive seasons of elite performance. He produced a 3.17 ERA for the Detroit Tigers and Los Angeles Dodgers last season, then was inconsistent for the Dodgers in the postseason, following stellar performances in Game 1 of both the National League Championship Series and World Series with subpar showings in the respective Game 5s. Before that, he had a rocky ’23 coming off two straight injury-marred campaigns.

A one-year opt-out would enable Flaherty to re-enter the market at 30 but also would subject him to a qualifying offer for the first time. The early opt-outs are more appealing for the remaining free agents with QOs — Alonso, Santander, right-hander Nick Pivetta and third baseman Alex Bregman. The collective bargaining agreement prohibits a player from receiving qualifying offers twice.

The Athletic’s Tim Britton projected a four-year, $92 million contract for Flaherty and a five-year, $105 million deal for Santander. As written last month, Santander, 30, also is an imperfect free agent, even after hitting a career-high 44 homers. His career .307 on-base percentage, below-average sprint speed and poor defensive metrics all might be contributing to his seeming difficulties in the market.

Predicting Pete

Here’s a prediction on Alonso’s contract if the Mets take him up on Boras’ proposal for a three-year deal with opt-outs, an offer confirmed by The Athletic’s Will Sammon:

Three years, $93.3 million, with deferrals that will lower the deal’s present-day value.

Why $93.3 million? Because a $31.1 million average annual value would set a record for a first baseman, beating Miguel Cabrera’s $31 million AAV in his eight-year, $248 million extension with the Detroit Tigers that ran from 2016 to ’23, his ages 33 to 40 seasons.

Alonso isn’t a future Hall of Famer like Cabrera, but he’s three years younger than Cabrera was at the start of that deal. Plus, that contract was agreed upon 11 years ago.

Agents, including Alonso’s representative, Boras, routinely try to establish records of some sort in contract negotiations.

Consider:

• Carlos Correa’s $35.1 million AAV in his first deal with the Minnesota Twins beat Anthony Rendon’s previous mark for an infielder, $35 million (both were Boras clients).

• Francisco Lindor’s $34.1 million AAV with the Mets, negotiated by David Meter, beat Fernando Tatis Jr.’s $34 million record AAV for a shortstop.

• J.T. Realmuto’s $23.1 million AAV with the Philadelphia Phillies, negotiated by former CAA agent Jeff Berry, beat Joe Mauer’s record $23 million AAV for a catcher.

A $31.1 million AAV for Alonso might seem excessive, considering the game’s current highest-paid first baseman on a multiyear deal, Freddie Freeman, is at $27 million — and $24.7 million when factoring in deferrals. Even if the Mets reduced Alonso’s present-day value with deferrals, it would only be for salary and not luxury-tax purposes. The signing of Alonso almost certainly would push them over the highest threshold, which in 2025 is $301 million.

Beware the markup on Marcus Stroman

MLB notes: A Pete Alonso contract prediction plus more players who could sign short-term deals

Marcus Stroman’s contract includes an option that might scare off some teams. (Stacy Revere / Getty Images)

The problem with the New York Yankees trading right-hander Marcus Stroman is the $18 million player option they included in his contract if he pitches 140 innings in 2025.

A team that acquired Stroman would need to accept it might be getting him for two years. The team would not be trading for Stroman to pitch 130 innings, work in long relief or remain with the club for two months, then get released. And while the team could limit Stroman to five-inning starts and skip him on occasion, the goal of a trade seemingly would be for him to pitch well enough to gain the option.

The Yankees want to clear money to acquire an infielder, and not a particularly high-priced one, according to sources briefed on their plans. Perhaps they could get the player they want by finding another club to swap inflated contracts. Barring that, any trade of Stroman likely would need to account not only for his $18 million salary in 2025, but also the possibility of him earning $18 million in 2026. The Yankees would need to pay down some of the remaining obligation — and the more money they included, the less the trade would serve their purposes.

Stroman, who turns 34 on May 1, worked 154 2/3 innings last season, finishing with an ERA+ below league average and the lowest ground-ball rate of his 10-year career. Left-hander Martín Pérez, who is one month older than Stroman and had a slightly worse ERA+ in 135 innings, just signed a one-year, $5 million free-agent contract with the Chicago White Sox — and that was after dramatically improving his performance following a trade to the San Diego Padres.

Another obstacle for the Yankees in trading Stroman is that comparable free agents such as Kyle Gibson, Lance Lynn, Andrew Heaney and Jose Quintana remain unsigned, as do superior ones such as Flaherty and Pivetta (Roki Sasaki is in a category apart).

Minor-league park, major-league amenities

The difficulties the Tampa Bay Rays will face playing at the Yankees’ spring training facility in 2025 are well-documented. But if there is one consolation to their move to Steinbrenner Field, it’s that the Yankees just completed a two-year renovation of their baseball operations at the facility.

“The Rays’ players and staff and front office are going to have a great environment to work in as they transition from a very difficult circumstance,” Yankees general manager Brian Cashman said, referring to the damage Hurricane Milton inflicted on Tropicana Field. “From a facility standpoint, it’s something I know will ease the burden of having to leave their ballpark while it’s under repair.”

The Yankees renovated their home clubhouse at Steinbrenner Field before last year’s spring training. As reported by The Athletic’s Chris Kirschner, their new multistory baseball operations building will include an expanded weight room, training room, locker room for women, players’ lounge, dining area, family lounge and new offices for the baseball operations’ staff. The Rays will have access to all of those facilities once the regular season begins, but not Yankees equipment, technology or proprietary spaces.

How much does a state-of-the-art work environment matter? Here’s Cashman:

“I remember when I was younger. I worked in the old Yankee Stadium. And it was a dungeon,” Cashman said. “(Buck) Showalter became the manager and started pushing for renovations. We upgraded the home clubhouse and all of a sudden, if report time was at 4, players were showing up at 2.

“We created an environment they liked coming to. Showalter would talk to me about how these minor details were important. Atmosphere is important. If you’re going to try to create a culture, your facilities can provide assistance in that. A lot gets baked into it. We definitely have spent a lot of time when we can to try to improve our environment. The Rays are going to be walking into a wonderful environment, albeit under the trying circumstances of the tragedy down there.”

Brooks Raley drawing interest

Free agent left-handed reliever Brooks Raley has discussed multiyear arrangements with some clubs, league sources said.

Raley, 36, had Tommy John surgery in May. He hopes to be ready to pitch in games as early as the start of July, people briefed on the matter said. Clubs known to be in the market for bullpen help, including the Cubs and Yankees, have checked in.

A precedent exists for relievers in similar situations. In recent years, relievers coming off surgeries such as Liam Hendriks and Luke Jackson netted two-year deals with options.

Clubs may want to sign Raley to something along the lines of a two-year pact for a few reasons. After rehabbing for the first few months of the season, teams in contention could see Raley as a pre-deadline addition of sorts. If he signed with a club that ended up experiencing a losing season in the first half, they could showcase him in July and flip him at the deadline. Another possibility: Keeping Raley for all of 2025, then trading him in the offseason as a possible high-leverage option similar to what the Rays did ahead of the 2023 season, when they sent him to the New York Mets for a prospect.

Before his injury, Raley had established himself as a steady left-handed option in the back end of bullpens. Of the 10 left-handed relievers who faced at least 300 left-handed batters from 2020 until April 2024, Raley ranked first in strikeout rate (35.2 percent) and WHIP (0.93), among other categories. In 2023, he had a 2.80 ERA and 61 strikeouts in 54 2/3 innings.

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