Will the Orioles go after the most expensive starting pitchers this winter?

By now, we’ve all come to the same conclusion that the Orioles will go after a top-tier replacement for Corbin Burnes this winter.

It’s not clear whether Mike Elias wants to dish out a massive free agent contract to one of the available guys, or if he wants to use prospect capital to acquire someone via trade, but all signs point toward the Orioles finding a top of the rotation type guy before the start of 2025.

MLB insider Jim Bowden of The Athletic agrees with the sentiment. In his most recent column, Bowden outlines the top-45 free agents this offseason and makes predictions regarding their eventual signings.

Bowden has the Orioles listed as a potential suitor for just about every pitcher on the list, including everyone in the top-tier.

The three most sought after starters this winter should wind up being Burnes, Max Fried, and Blake Snell.

Roki Sasaki could technically still get posted but due to his age, he’d have to sign a minimum contract like Shohei Ohtani did when he came over to MLB back in 2018. If Sasaki comes this winter, he’ll just pick his favorite spot and get paid a pittance for his efforts, so we’re not entirely counting that one.

But in terms of the other three, Burnes and Fried will almost certainly push the envelope and get in the neighborhood of $200 million. Snell could be a bit cheaper thanks to having pitched just 104 innings this past year.

However, his performance in that limited time was stellar. Snell has two Cy Young awards to his name and a career 3.33 ERA. You’d expect him to get paid like a star, but we’ll see if he has to settle for a sub-par deal like he did just this past winter.

Will the Orioles go after Max Fried or Blake Snell this offseason?

Mike Elias came out earlier this year and told reporters that the Orioles plan to increase payroll in the offseason. David Rubenstein also told reporters that he wants to give Elias every resource to get Baltimore back into World Series contention as soon as possible.

While Grayson Rodriguez and Zack Eflin are strong assets in their own rights, going into 2025 with those two atop the rotation would still be a step down from where they were with Burnes in 2024. So with everything in place, it makes sense that the O’s would want to acquire another ace.

However, it would be pretty uncharacteristic of Elias to go out and spend top dollar on a free agent. He’s yet to do so in Baltimore, and while he wasn’t the top man in either Houston or St. Louis during his time in those locations, that wasn’t either team’s modus operandi.

The next massive free agent deal Elias signs will be his first, so we’ll see how things play out and how much he’s willing to risk to push the Orioles over the top.

Basically all of the pitchers at the top of the market would be fits in Baltimore. Whether it’s Burnes, Fried, Snell, or someone acquired via trade like a Sonny Gray type, any of those guys could come to Baltimore and make an immediate impact.

Guys in the next tier down, like Sean Manaea, Jack Flaherty, Shane Bieber, Walker Buehler, or Nate Eovaldi, would all make sense for the Orioles as well. However, those guys are all in the same mold as Eflin – very good but not quite an ace. Eovaldi would probably be the most desirable of that group, and he also might wind up being the most cost effective choice as well.

Ultimately, it’s fair to think that the Orioles will pursue at least one more starter this winter. Where they find him, and how much they invest, remains to be seen.