On Friday night, the Orioles announced their latest addition to the rotation in veteran right-hander Charlie Morton.

In years past, the signing of two-time All-Star and two-time World Series champion would be hailed as a savvy move for a young Orioles team in need of a veteran presence.

However, the success of the last two seasons, coupled with the emerging talent in the Orioles lineup, paints this move in a different light.

The acquisition of Morton, along with other recent moves for relatively volatile starters, show the Orioles are once again willing to gamble on the strength of their pitching staff.

If the Orioles don’t acquire any other starters in the 83 days between now and Opening Day, they’ll likely head into the 2025 season with a rotation composed of Zach Eflin, Grayson Rodriguez, Morton, Tomoyuki Sugano and Dean Kremer.

Cade Povich, Albert Suárez and Trevor Rogers will all undoubtedly get a shot at earning a starting role as well, giving the Orioles plenty of depth in the starting pitching department.

The concern with the rotation is not whether there will be enough bodies to get through 162 games, but whether Baltimore has the right arms to win 11+ games in October.

Corbin Burnes was exactly what the Orioles needed last year—from Opening Day all the way through his dazzling eight innings of work in his only playoff appearance for the O’s.

Last year’s ace is now a member of the Arizona Diamondbacks and there’s no longer a clear path to filling the whole he leaves atop the rotation.

Seemingly no amount of David Rubenstein’s money could have convinced Burnes to turn down the opportunity to play in the same city as his wife and three kids.

Yet Mike Elias & Co. did not seem to have a true contingency plan for when they failed to bring back their ace.

While Baltimore waited on Burnes to make a decision, the Yankees snapped up Max Fried, the Rangers re-signed Nathan Eovaldi, the Guardians re-upped with Shane Bieber and the Red Sox triple dipped with the additions of Garrett Crochet, Walker Buehler and Patrick Sandoval.

As the Orioles’ front office waited for their biggest longshot bet to maybe come good, the rest of MLB took all of their potential Burnes replacements off the board.

That’s not to say new additions Morton and Sugano will be insignificant contributors in 2025. Over the last four years in Atlanta, the now 41-year-old Morton has posted an ERA of 3.87, an ERA+ of 110, a FIP of 3.92 and an impressive K/9 rate of 10.1. If Morton could put up those numbers for the Orioles this season, he’d more than earn his keep as Baltimore’s third starter.

With Sugano, the O’s will try and ride the wave of Japanese pitching talent that’s made its way stateside the last couple seasons. In 2024 alone, rookies Shota Imanaga and Yoshinobu Yamamoto combined to throw 263.1 innings, rack up 279 strikeouts and post a combined 2.94 ERA.

Imanaga was an All-Star and finished Top 5 in Cy Young voting, while Yamamoto was a key contributor in the Dodgers’ run to a World Series title.

Sugano is coming off a 2024 in the NPB that was even better than Yamamoto or Imanaga’s final seasons in Japan, earning the Central League MVP while posting a 1.67 ERA. With an arsenal similar to Imanaga’s, there’s plenty of hope that Sugano and his pinpoint pitching style can find the same success his compatriots found last year.

However, that hope is undoubtedly tinged with a sizable serving of doubt when it comes to both Morton and Sugano. These moves are gambles—not the same type of gamble that comes in handing $200M+ to a pitcher, but gambles nonetheless. They are the type of gambles that have become all too common in Elias’ approach to building a pitching staff.

The moves for Morton and Suagno are the latest in a string in Elias gambles where, sure, there’s not a lot at risk in terms of money, prospects and/or long-term commitment to a player. However, the potential upside is also excruciatingly low—especially for a team capable of positioning itself atop the AL for the next decade.

When the Orioles needed pitching at the 2023 deadline, instead of swinging big for a veteran like Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander or Jordan Montgomery, the Orioles went with “high-upside”/low-cost additions of Jack Flaherty and Shintaro Fujinami. Both Flaherty and Fujinami struggled in Baltimore and the 101-win Orioles got bounced from the postseason largely due to the struggles of their pitching staff.

When the Orioles again needed pitching at the 2024 trade deadline, Elias again went shopping in the bargain bin, trading five prospects to acquire Eflin and Rogers. While the Eflin deal ended up looking like a steal, Rogers pitched himself into a demotion to Triple-A and six months later the Orioles still feel like a team that is starting pitcher needy.

The Morton and Sugano signings seem to come from the same risk averse playbook. Morton is old enough that he’s faced both Vlad Guerrero Sr. and Jr. and is coming off a season where he posted his lowest K-rate since 2015. He will undoubtedly provide a valuable veteran presence to young pitchers like Grayson Rodriguez, but the Orioles will need more than that to win a pennant. Sugano carries the same downside due to age, but without the wealth of MLB experience.

With three months left to go before Opening Day, there is still time to make another move to mitigate these concerns. After all, the Orioles did not consummate the trade to acquire Burnes until February 1, 2024. There are rumors swirling that the O’s are pondering a reunion with Flaherty or a trade for former All-Star Luis Castillo. If one of those materialize, the loud grumblings currently heard around Birdland will start to quiet.

Yet, if Morton is the last pitching move the Orioles make, Elias can pat himself on the back for another offseason without wasting any precious prospects. Instead, the only thing the front office truly wasted was the fan base’s goodwill and (potentially) another season of the most exciting young core in Camden Yards history.