Every time one reads something said by Dave Dombrowski, there is a new bit of information to discuss. We’ve seen him headfake us with “We’re all done!” quote about this offseason only to make a fairly seismic deal days later. We’ve heard him talk about wanting to “shake things up” on the lineup card only see teams bow out of trading for anyone from said lineup. Yet this one stood out a bit more, a bit more concrete perhaps.

When speaking about how the rest of the offseason might go, specifically about adding more options in the bullpen, Dombrowski’s response was fairly matter-of-fact.

“I think it’s pretty well set at this time,” Dombrowski said of the bullpen.

Huh.

At first, it doesn’t seem all that interesting. If he says they’re done adding to the bullpen, then by golly they’re probably done. Yet one could look at it through the lens of public negotiation. Maybe the team is interested in adding still another horse to the bullpen stable, but they’re finding the price points of free agents to by a bitter pill to swallow. With hardly any of the top options on the table having signed, that take is probably closer to a reality than we might assume. There has been no market set, so how can we really know what someone like Jeff Hoffman or Tanner Scott is looking for? That quote might be Dombrowski’s way of telling them to lower the price a bit and a more serious conversation could be had.

Dombrowski’s quote could also be taken as truthful on at face value. Maybe the team truly is done adding pieces to their bullpen mix. The team has mentioned multiple times that they are happy with what they have, which at this point looks like this (according to Fangraphs);

A good bullpen as is, but a bullpen with holes. There are assumptions being made with this groups – health, lack of regression, steps forward – that are made with any version of a bullpen composition, but for a team that expects to contend for a World Series title, it’s at least a little surprising that more certainty hasn’t been added, both to the bullpen in particular but to the roster at large.

Why?

The first and most obvious is the luxury tax that the team seems to be trying to avoid. Using Fangraphs’ RosterResource payroll estimator, the team currently sits at a little less than $308 million in luxury tax payroll, a more than $6 million over the third surcharge threshold of $301 million for 2025. Assuming that they stay over that threshold for the entirety of the season, the team is looking at paying a 110% tax on whatever they spend over the $301 million (50% for being over the threshold for third season in a row + 60% for going over the third threshold) in addition to having their draft pick moved back 10 spots in 2026. That’s roughly $7.3 million in tax money paid to the league.

That should not be an issue for the team.

Paying that kind of tax money is likely something the team is not willing to do, particularly because adding another reliever to the mix would be putting more money on top of the money we just figured out. For example, were the team to re-sign Jeff Hoffman for something in the neighborhood of $10 million AAV, that means now, the team would be about $16 million over the threshold, which equates to something in the neighborhood of $17.6 million. Now that starts to represent some real tax money being given to the league. It gives us the very real assumption that despite all the proclamations to the contrary, the front office is being slightly hamstrung in their desired moves by a budget that has been imposed on the team.

It also leads to the second possibility, the trading deadline.

If we are to believe that there is some kind of budget in place, both in terms of dollars and the luxury tax implications, the team is likely keeping some of that powder dry to see what needs have to be addressed in July. If they were to spend everything they needed to right now, there would be limited flexibility once the deadline rolls around to make improvements to the team. That is something no one wants to witness.

Picture this scenario. The team is in what is shaping up to be a dogfight not only the division lead, but also for a playoff spot at all. With the way that the National League teams have improved themselves this offseason, it’s not something that is far fetched at all. Now, imagine that several of those teams were making additions at the trade deadline that bolster their chances of making the postseason while the Phillies sat on the sidelines, unable to add anything further to the budget.

What might the reaction be from the fanbase then?

Pretty sure we know what the reaction would be. There is no guarantee that anyone added at the trade deadline can springboard anyone to go on a serious playoff run similar to the Braves adding Fred McGriff in 1993.

It still would be really cool to find out.

If another reason the team is waiting to make further additions to the ballclub until July rolls around, it’s not the worst idea to do. On paper, this team still looks like a playoff contender. The rotation is a top two version in the game, the bullpen, though a bit thinner, is still a good one and the lineup should still produce like a top eight or nine version in the game. Yet it doesn’t take much to find places to improve. The outfield probably will need an upgrade at some point, bullpens can always be deeper and so on and so on. So if there truly are budgetary limitations in place for the front office, if there truly is an upper limit to how much luxury tax money the team is willing to pay, why not wait until there are actual holes to address with the money that can be spent?

It’s fun to watch the team get better in the offseason. Watching free agents sign and players come into the organization through a trade is one of the best parts of being a fan. Yet we also have to take into account that the game is a business. Rich people like to stay rich and don’t want to give others their money. If the Phillies are “done” with their offseason due to a luxury tax concern, so be it, so long as there is action when the calendar calls for it.

The truth is somewhere out there and we’ll likely never know the full extent of it. This might be the best guess I can give, but it does make some sense.

The team better be right about it.