A few more clues about where Roki Sasaki might sign

Earlier this week, I posted this article with some information about Roki Sasaki’s process for deciding which MLB team he will choose later this month.

Now, thanks to Pete Abraham’s Sunday notes column in the Boston Globe, we have a bit more information.

In it, Abraham notes the seven teams Sasaki met with last month in person in Los Angeles — the Cubs, Dodgers, Giants, Mets, Padres, Rangers and Yankees. He also goes on at length about the failure of the Red Sox to land such a meeting and the possible reasons for that. Then Abraham quoted Sasaki’s agent Joel Wolfe:

Wolfe said “one or two” other teams could land a meeting over the next 10 days but it’s more likely Sasaki would pick one of the clubs on his initial list.

Ah, ha.

So from the original list of 20 teams who submitted presentations to Sasaki and Wolfe, Sasaki seems likely to have cut that list to the seven teams named above, plus possibly those “one or two” others, so at most nine.

The seven teams noted above all have significant experience with signing Japanese players, and in fact, all of them have had important Japanese contributors on their teams at one time or another. So that’s not likely to move the needle one way or the other, and in fact, Sasaki has stated that the presence or absence of Japanese players on the team he chooses won’t necessarily be a difference-maker (although I’d think he might want to have teammates with whom he can converse in his native language).

With the sole exception of the Padres, all the other teams on the list represent big markets, so that doesn’t appear to be a significant consideration. Interestingly, the Giants now have the Bay Area to themselves with the departure of the A’s. What that will mean for Sasaki is unknown, as is what it will mean for the Giants going forward.

The 2025 international bonus pools, which go into effect Jan. 15, range from $5,146,200 (Dodgers and Giants) to $7,555,500 (eight teams, none of which are among the teams who have met with Sasaki). Neither have any of the six teams in the second-highest pool tier ($6,908,600) met with him. The Cubs are in the third tier ($6,261,600) along with all the teams that have met with Sasaki except the Dodgers and Giants.

The money won’t matter, most likely, because eventually Sasaki will get paid, whether it’s through a long-term extension from the team he signs with, or via free agency. A couple of things should be noted: First, assuming a team pays Sasaki their entire 2025 bonus pool money, they would then have no cash at all to sign prospects from, say, the Dominican Republic or Venezuela — unless they make trades for international money, which is allowed. Second, per Abraham’s article:

Assuming he makes his new team out of spring training, Sasaki would receive the MLB minimum salary. In time, he will likely sign a long-term contract. But the commissioner’s office has warned teams not to bend the rules with promises of deals down the road.

I think the commissioner’s office is serious here — any vague promises of long-term deals before Sasaki signs might result in the team being punished, up to the point of voiding any possible Sasaki deal. Give Rob Manfred and the commissioner’s office some credit here, they are definitely trying to help make this a level playing field. Abraham’s article notes that Sasaki might “visit one or two teams in person” before signing, so let’s watch and see if he pays a visit to Chicago.

Really, we are all just playing guessing games here. Sasaki and Wolfe have kept this process under tight control. Which, good for them. That’s the way this should be, to allow the player to make the best decision for himself going forward.

The new international signing period begins in 11 days, on Jan. 15. It’s between then and the expiration of the 45-day posting period on Jan. 23 when Sasaki will make his decision.

Which, we all hope, means choosing the Chicago Cubs.

As always, we await developments.

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