Welcome back to your late week, late night indie coffee shop where we’re discussing all things Cubs and some things just baseball. We’ve got mocktails if you’re doing a Dry January, or traditional cocktails if you aren’t. Take off your coat, get warm by the fire while you chat, just be sure to bus your tables so we don’t leave a mess for Josh on Monday.
Yesterday we were looking at some of the top end relievers who are still available on the free agent market with contracts that ranged from 3-years $27 million for Carlos Estévez to 4-years $56 million for lefty Tanner Scott. The poll is still open for a few days but as of now 44 percent of you want Scott on the Cubs compared to 24 percent for Estévez and 17 percent for Jeff Hoffman.
To the ten percent of you who think the Cubs should look for lower cost options, you’re in luck, because that’s what we’re talking about today.
First, some tunes.
As the first partial week in the New Year winds down I wanted to take a different tack on a New Year’s classic:
U2’s first breakout hit in the UK and internationally was the classic song New Year’s Day.
All is quiet on New Year’s Day
A world in white gets underway
I want to be with you
Be with you night and day
Nothing changes on New Year’s Day
On New Year’s DayI will be with you again
I will be with you again
New Year’s Day begins with an unmistakable riff that is instantly recognizable. The lyrics were inspired by the imprisonment of Poland’s Solidarity Movement, Lech Wałęsa. Wałęsa was imprisoned for his work establishing non-communist labor unions. Work that would later earn him a Nobel Peace Prize. He later became the elected President of Poland.
Under a blood red sky
A crowd has gathered in black and white
Arms entwined, the chosen few
The newspapers says, says
Say it’s true, it’s true
And we can break through
Though torn in two
We can be oneI, I will begin again
I, I will begin again
The video for the song was recorded in December 1982, It was an accident of fate that martial law in Poland was lifted on New Year’s Day, 1983 according to The American Songwriter.
An interview with U2’s lead singer, Bono as captured in the above article speaks to the unique nature of New Year’s Day as a breakout single in 1983:
“It would be stupid to start drawing up battle lines, but I think the fact that ‘New Year’s Day’ made the Top Ten indicated a disillusionment among record buyers,” Bono continued. “I don’t think ‘New Year’s Day’ was a pop single, certainly not in the way that Mickie Most might define a pop single as something that lasts three minutes and three weeks in the chart. I don’t think we could have written that kind of song.”
Back in 2025, the Cubs still need relief help and as much as 85 percent of us believe that the front office should be looking for that help from the top tier of the free agent market, well, that’s not exactly Jed Hoyer’s MO.
So once again I looked at MLB Trade Rumors and their list of top free agents to get an idea of who might be available and their best free agent contract estimates. The remaining relievers on the top-50 free agent list and their contract estimate per MLB Trade Rumors are below:
- Kirby Yates one-year $14 million
- David Robertson one-year $11 million
- A.J. Minter two years $16 million
Now, the Cubs are likely going to find the contract durations more compelling in this tier. After all, relievers, even the best of them, are volatile. Long-term, big money commitments to relievers can backfire and I imagine unless there is something Jed Hoyer and company really like about one of the names from yesterday, the above pitchers are much more likely to find themselves on the Cubs 40-man roster. Here are their last three seasons according to FanGraphs:
Minter, Yates & Robertson 2022-24
Season | Name | Team | W | L | SV | G | GS | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | BABIP | LOB% | GB% | HR/FB | ERA | FIP | xFIP | WAR |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Season | Name | Team | W | L | SV | G | GS | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | BABIP | LOB% | GB% | HR/FB | ERA | FIP | xFIP | WAR |
2022 | A.J. Minter | ATL | 5 | 4 | 5 | 75 | 0 | 70.0 | 12.09 | 1.93 | 0.64 | .286 | 76.7% | 38.5% | 0.07 | 2.06 | 2.13 | 2.68 | 2.0 |
2024 | Kirby Yates | TEX | 7 | 2 | 33 | 61 | 0 | 61.2 | 12.41 | 4.09 | 0.44 | .168 | 88.1% | 45.5% | 0.06 | 1.17 | 2.50 | 3.12 | 1.9 |
2024 | David Robertson | TEX | 3 | 4 | 2 | 68 | 0 | 72.0 | 12.38 | 3.38 | 0.63 | .300 | 76.9% | 48.8% | 0.09 | 3.00 | 2.65 | 2.88 | 1.9 |
2023 | A.J. Minter | ATL | 3 | 6 | 10 | 70 | 0 | 64.2 | 11.41 | 2.92 | 0.84 | .331 | 71.4% | 35.1% | 0.09 | 3.76 | 2.90 | 3.38 | 1.4 |
2023 | David Robertson | – – – | 6 | 6 | 18 | 62 | 0 | 65.1 | 10.74 | 3.44 | 0.96 | .295 | 74.4% | 43.1% | 0.10 | 3.03 | 3.55 | 3.85 | 1.2 |
2022 | David Robertson | – – – | 4 | 3 | 20 | 58 | 0 | 63.2 | 11.45 | 4.95 | 0.85 | .237 | 86.0% | 46.5% | 0.10 | 2.40 | 3.58 | 3.71 | 0.7 |
2024 | A.J. Minter | ATL | 5 | 4 | 1 | 39 | 0 | 34.1 | 9.17 | 2.88 | 1.57 | .222 | 94.2% | 45.9% | 0.17 | 2.62 | 4.45 | 3.76 | -0.1 |
2023 | Kirby Yates | ATL | 7 | 2 | 5 | 61 | 0 | 60.1 | 11.93 | 5.52 | 1.34 | .211 | 85.4% | 36.4% | 0.15 | 3.28 | 4.63 | 4.34 | -0.2 |
2022 | Kirby Yates | ATL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 7.0 | 7.71 | 6.43 | 2.57 | .200 | 85.4% | 36.4% | 0.14 | 5.14 | 7.26 | 6.50 | -0.2 |
Select statsFanGraphs
Yates and Robertson both had excellent 2024 campaigns with the Rangers, however, Yates will be 38 and Robertson 40 for the 2025 season. Both Yates and Robertson have been effective closers in the past — and it is highly possible neither has another solid MLB season in them.
Minter, however, turned 31-years old in September and has been effective as a high-leverage option for the Atlanta Braves. That said, he dealt with a hip injury that hindered his performance in 2024. He had surgery this offseason as detailed below by MLB.com:
“He’s done just a tremendous job over the course of his career here,” Braves manager Brian Snitker said. “Hopefully, he gets back to where he’s full bore again.”
Whether Minter returns will be determined this offseason, while he is recovering from the surgical procedure performed by Dr. Thomas Byrd in Nashville. Byrd found a labrum tear, a hip impingement and a lesion on Minter’s femur. The surgical procedure required performing a microfracture on the hip.
So, Cubslandia, I leave it to you. If the Cubs are going to continue their intelligent spending ways and steer away from the top of the free agent relief market, which of the following pitchers would you like them to sign?
Poll
Should the Cubs sign one of the non-elite but still high leverage relievers still on the free agent market?
-
26%
Yes — Kirby Yates
(7 votes)
-
23%
Yes — David Robertson
(6 votes)
-
38%
Yes — A.J. Minter
(10 votes)
-
3%
No — The Cubs should look at less established relievers
(1 vote)
-
7%
Other — Comment
(2 votes)
26 votes total Vote Now