Leclerc has had a pretty solid career, and the Mets could be a place for him to get it back on track after a shaky 2024 on the surface.
José Leclerc, outside being a Diamond Dynasty Battle Royale legend on MLB: The Show, has carved out a pretty solid career for himself deep in the heart of Texas. A longtime leverage reliever for the Rangers, Leclerc has amassed 41 saves and 57 holds across 350 games in his career.
His top line numbers fluctuate, as relievers numbers are wont to do, with seasons where he had ERAs under 2.83 (2016, 2018, 2022, and 2023), and over four (2019 and, in just two games, 2020 and 2024), but the numbers under the surface are largely the same. His calling card is his ability to miss bats, with his career 31.2% strikeout rate ranking 29th among relievers since his debut in 2016, which includes missing most of the shortened 2020 season and all of 2021 because of the COVID-19 pandemic and Tommy John surgery, respectively. The downside to his game is he is wild. His 13.2% walk rate is the 23rd-highest among relievers since his debut, so you know what you are going to get with him: walks and strikeouts.
José Leclerc would be an excellent addition to a team needing bullpen help. He posted a 3.48 FIP across 66.2 IP while returning elite whiff rates
His Fangraphs Crowd Sourced contract valuation has him at a 2-Year deal worth 12M (6M AAV) pic.twitter.com/zExLkbweM3
— Thomas Nestico (@TJStats) December 10, 2024
He did not lose much off of his stuff after returning from Tommy John in 2022, and he was a pivotal part of the Rangers’ surprising 2023 run to their first World Series victory. Last season, as evidenced by the chart above, saw him put up worse top line numbers but still show strong whiff rates and and a good FIP, making it possible that his 2024 was just a tad unlucky. He gave up more home runs than usual, with his HR/FB rate spiking to 10.3%, up from a career average of 7.3%. This number is especially surprising because his overall fly ball rate dropped 6%—he just gave up an exorbitant amount of home runs. On top of that, he stranded baserunners at nearly the worst clip of his career, 71.8%, down from a 75% career average and 80% in 2022 and 2023.
Couple these trends with no evidence that his raw stuff is getting worse leads me to believe that his 2024 ERA was a little fluky, and there is space for legitimate leverage reliever upside here.
The Mets have done great work this off season so far, but the bullpen is definitely something they need to bolster as we get closer and close to pitchers and catchers reporting. Despite that, David Stearns is likely never to spend huge amounts of money on the subject — as we’ve seen time and time again, relievers are so volatile it is hard to invest in them. José Leclerc fits the mold that the Mets look for in relievers, and has a good case to bounce back to his typical form in 2025.
