While the Atlanta Braves have been somewhat maddingly quiet so far this offseason, the rest of the market has been refreshingly active especially given how slow to develop offseasons have been in recent years. Most (but not all) of the top names have signed especially now that one of the top pitchers on the market in Corbin Burnes agreed to terms with the Diamondbacks late Friday night.
The Braves were never factors in the Burnes’ sweepstakes. If Atlanta wasn’t willing to pay Max Fried, a guy who they knew exceedingly well and was a fan favorite, there was no way in hell they were going to pay Burnes even more than that and willingly have to deal with Scott Boras. The Braves aren’t afraid to go after talent, but they are measured about it and the Burnes’ bidding was anything but that with Boras around.
Still, Burnes signing with Arizona specifically could still play into the Braves’ hands. Given that the Diamondbacks’ owner very publicly threw Jordan Montgomery under the bus early in the offseason and most think they will trade him, Atlanta should at least consider acquiring him especially now that the DBacks are having to pay Burnes big time money.
Jordan Montgomery’s 2Ks in the 2nd. pic.twitter.com/kH2ReWEQ6o
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 24, 2024
The Braves should push for a Jordan Montgomery trade as a relatively low-risk lottery ticket
Anyone who followed baseball last year knows that Montgomery’s 2024 season was decidedly not good. After having to settle for a short-term deal after Boras screwed his market up last offseason, Montgomery struggled mightily in Arizona with a 6.23 ERA in 25 appearances and a low, even for him, strikeout rate. The numbers were not good and no one is arguing otherwise here.
However, Montgomery was such a steady performer in the three seasons before that that Atlanta would be mistaken to not kick the tires here. Between 2021-2023, Montgomery averaged a 3.48 ERA, 3.62 FIP, and was uniquely good at pounding the strike zone and getting guys to chase. His 2024 season was such an outlier that many think that the lack of a normal offseason and spring training is what hurt Montgomery especially when you factor in all the drama from his free agency potentially effecting him.
The logic here is straightforward. Assuming a world where the Braves believe that the regression Montgomery experienced last season was situational and not indicative of a less-fixable long-term problem, Monty should be able to be acquired for very little this offseason. Arizona now has to pay Burnes $35 million a year and they already wanted to move Montgomery before that. The Braves could probably get the Diamondbacks to eat a chunk of the $22.5 million owed to Montgomery and still only give up a minimal prospect package to acquire him. To Arizona, the Braves taking him on would be doing them a favor.
Such a move would be relatively low-risk for Atlanta. Montgomery has real upside as a starter still (again, assuming he is healthy) and he is only under contract for one season. If it works out, great! If not, the Braves still have no shortage of rotation options in the high minors they could turn to if he completely flames out. Cost will certainly matter and the Braves should pass if Arizona plays hardball, but most indications we have suggest that it Montgomery is ripe for stealing at a solid price.
