The final calendar days or the 2024 year are approaching and the Atlanta Braves are a much different roster than what they ended the previous season with. The most notable difference comes in the rotation, where Atlanta has lost a ton of innings with Max Fried and Charlie Morton’s (presumed) departure.

While there is still a ton of time for Atlanta to add, if the club chooses to roll with a Sale, Schwellenbach, Lopez, and eventually Strider rotation as the top four arms in 2025 they will be taking a big gamble. Each pitcher comes with their own risk, but one in particular could determine the fate of the Braves entire season.

Reynaldo Lopez repeating his 2024 success will be a deciding factor for the Braves NL East hopes

In his debut season with Atlanta, Reynaldo Lopez turned in the best season of his nine-year career. Lopez started 25 games and pitched to the tune of a 1.99 ERA and 2.92 FIP. Although his expected numbers were a bit higher, Lopez pitched with such aggression in the zone that hitters never looked comfortable in the box when he was on the mound.

Reynaldo Lopez's 2Ks in the 2nd.

4Ks thru 2. pic.twitter.com/s4pD6YLt5M

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) September 28, 2024

This offseason the Braves issued a vote of confidence Lopez could repeat his 2024 good work by restructuring his contract. Lopez took less money in 2025 so that the Braves could move that to 2026. Atlanta also went ahead and guaranteed the 2027 club option worth $8 million to bring the total contract to 3 years/$30 million.

That deal is a bargain for the pitcher Lopez was in 2024, but should he regress (and the numbers suggest he will), it’s still a quality deal as long as Lopez is past the injury scares that slowed him down post All-Star break. Lopez came into last Spring as the fifth starter so there wasn’t a lot of pressure to post solid numbers and give the Braves a ton of innings.

However, should Lopez enter next season as the third or fourth starter Atlanta will need more than the 135 innings he gave them last season. It’s imperative that Lopez inches closer to the 165 innings veteran Charlie Morton provided last season. If Reynaldo accomplishes that workload and maintains his impressive strikeout numbers the Braves chances of recapturing the NL East crown increase significantly.