The Hot Stove has cooled a little bit in recent days, as most of the biggest names available have come off the board and teams regroup ahead of the new year. But there’s still plenty of talent out there, and while former Cy Young winner Corbin Burnes looks for a record payday, the biggest prize might also be the biggest bargain: 23-year-old Japanese ace Roki Sasaki, who offers ace upside for Minor League money.

Sasaki is officially able to negotiate with MLB teams, and given his international amateur free agent status, just about everybody has taken a crack at him over the past couple of weeks. When it comes to scoring an in-person interview, however, only a select few have made the cut so far. Just five teams have been confirmed to have held meetings with Sasaki and his agent, Joel Wolfe, so far, and while some more are certainly to come (e.g., the Dodgers and Padres, still considered the frontrunners for his services), now is as good a time as any to handicap the race as it stands. Which team that’s earned a meeting is best positioned to land the explosive young righty?

For more news and rumors, check out MLB Insider Robert Murray’s work onThe Baseball Insiders podcast, subscribe to The Moonshot, our weekly MLB newsletter, and join the discord to get the inside scoop between now and the MLB offseason.

5. Texas Rangers

The most recent of Sasaki’s in-person meetings to be revealed might well be the most shocking one. Sure, the Texas Rangers won the World Series just 24 months ago, and there’s still plenty of talent in this lineup. But the team’s pitching more or less collapsed in 2024, and it’s not like there’s a particularly strong track record of pitcher development in recent years.

Arlington would give Sasaki a little less media spotlight while still offering plenty of endorsement opportunities (and an airport hub for easy access to Japan). But several teams figure to offer better off-field arguments, and the on-field product wouldn’t seem to be all that appealing at the moment. Of course, Sasaki still asked them for a meeting, so there has to have been something that caught his eye.

4. New York Yankees

The Yankees were among the first teams reported to have landed an in-person meeting with Sasaki, and any time Brian Cashman and Hal Steinbrenner can get in the room with a big-time free agent, you can never count them out. But after some negative interactions with media while playing in Japan, it really does seem like Sasaki might not be wild about dealing with the intense, sometimes irrational scrutiny that comes with playing in pinstripes. And after the Juan Soto debacle, you do have to wonder whether Hal has his father George’s ability to close the deal amid stiff competition.

New York offers a competitive roster and plenty of endorsement opportunity, and if the East Coast were a deal-breaker, you’d have to think they wouldn’t have landed a meeting in the first place. Plus, the team can call on former Yankees Hideki Matsui and Masahiro Tanaka to play up its connection to Japanese stars. But while New York has gotten farther with Sasaki than it did with, say, Shohei Ohtani, it still has to be considered a long shot here based on what we know so far about the righty’s priorities.

3. Chicago Cubs

With Corbin Burnes reportedly well out of the Ricketts’ price range, it sure seems like Sasaki is the only option left for Jed Hoyer to find the Chicago Cubs an impact addition to the rotation. The good news is that the team reportedly managed to score an in-person meeting, and there are plenty of selling points to offer, from a competitive roster (especially after the Kyle Tucker trade) to a national brand to access to an airport hub to a fellow Japanese ace already on board in Shota Imanaga.

Of course, there’s also not-so-good news. While closer than, say, New York, Chicago still isn’t as geographically convenient as potential West Coast destinations like the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres, and Chicago media has a tendency to be less than kind to Cubs players who underperform. Overall, there’s plenty of reason to believe that Sasaki would take the Cubs seriously, but not quite enough to vault them to the top of this list.

2. New York Mets

Maybe this is just the afterglow of the Juan Soto sweepstakes talking, but how can you count out Steve Cohen and David Stearns for anything at this point? Sure, Cohen’s money won’t be as decisive a factor here, but the 2024 season proved that the new Mets leadership is up there with anybody when it comes to pitching development, and current Japanese ace Kodai Senga is always around to help with the recruiting pitch.

The same Yankees caveats apply here; New York media is a different animal, and Queens isn’t as convenient a trip back to Japan as, say, Los Angeles or San Diego or San Francisco. But if Sasaki is really willing to consider coming to the East Coast (or really anywhere east of the Rockies), you’d have to think that the Mets are currently the team with the most compelling pitch when you consider their roster, their organizational stability and the proof of concept that landing Soto represents.

1. San Francisco Giants

Maybe this comes as a surprise; the Giants haven’t exactly been a prime destination for free agents of late, and they couldn’t even score a meeting with Shohei Ohtani or Yoshinobu Yamamoto last winter. But Buster Posey really does seem to have given San Francisco some much-needed juice, as evidenced by the team finally hitting on a big name with the Willy Adames signing earlier this month. And on paper, there’s a lot to offer here: SFO has as many direct flights to Tokyo as any airport in the contiguous U.S., the roster is a bit better than you think, the spotlight isn’t quite as bright as it is in L.A. or New York and Oracle Park is among the most pitcher-friendly spots in the entire league.

Will all of that be enough to unseat the Dodgers or Padres, both of whom are above San Francisco in the NL West pecking order and enjoy the same geographic advantage? That remains to be seen. But of the teams that we know have earned a meeting with Sasaki, the Giants might be the sweet spot, combining some cause for on-field optimism while checking every off-field box.