The San Diego Padres have unexpectedly signaled their openness to trading All-Star pitcher Dylan Cease this offseason. This strategic move aims to bolster their farm system and alleviate the financial pressure anticipated before the 2025 season. Recognizing the high cost associated with acquiring a pitcher of Cease’s caliber in today’s market, the New York Mets must carefully weigh the potential benefits of adding an ace-level talent to a rotation currently facing significant uncertainty for next season.
Cease showed improvement in 2024 over his 2023 performance, finishing with a 3.47 ERA. The right-hander is a force that would bring a different level to any rotation as a healthy pitcher who has managed to complete at least 32 starts the past four years and has finished in the top four of the Cy Young Award voting in two of the past three seasons.
The Mets would have to sacrifice heavyweight prospects to get Dylan Cease.
David Stearns has shown a clear system of how he can rotate starting pitchers in favor of shorter-term, lower-commitment contracts with upside to develop pitchers within the Mets’ pitching lab. Additionally, Stearns has been reluctant to make trades that include top prospects, especially if they are players with little contractual control.
However, the historic signing of Juan Soto puts the team in a win-now mode that requires an MLB-level roster to compete against the tough NL East and the defending champion Los Angeles Dodgers. To compete, the upside pitching experiment may work but the risk of the entire plan not working out is high so Stearns will have to consider trading for an ace.
Cease is seen as a strong option due to his stuff and potential as a pitcher, with a six-pitch arsenal led by a fastball that averages 97 mph and a slider that induces nearly 45% swing-and-miss. His repertoire is formidable, with five of his six pitches having a batting average of .245 or lower against his opponents and the sweeper and slider having a slugging percentage allowed of just .260.
To land Cease the Mets must find an MLB-ready talent that allows the Padres to remain competitive, so Luisangel Acuña is an ideal option, especially in the scenario where the Padres trade Luis Arraez as they have in mind. Also, to reestablish their farm system Ryan Clifford emerges as a vital option for the trade due to his value as a top 100 prospect with the ability to play in the outfield and first base, and to complete the trade with the Mets’ number eight prospect, pitcher Blade Tidwell.
In a package like the one proposed, the Padres would be getting a value similar to what they paid when they acquired Cease last offseason, while the Mets would get a long-awaited ace for their rotation. Ultimately, the Mets must carefully weigh these factors against their current window of contention and their long-term vision for the organization.
