Holliday got called up to The Show early last season but struggled mightily over 10 games with an apallingly low .170 OPS as well as 18 strikeouts in 36 plate appearances.
He did, however, perform better when he was called back up in late July for the Oriole’s stretch run, slashing .218/.285/.365. So there were certainly signs that the now-21-year-old is going to live up to his billing.
But it seems like Elias and Baltimore might be banking on that happening a bit too heavily.
Orioles may have overinflated expectations for Jackson Holliday
Elias, appearing on MLB Tonight, had this to say about what the Orioles are banking on when it comes to Holliday in the 2025 season:
“He’s a guy that we’re counting on. He’s somebody who got called into duty in the second half. We had a lot of injuries.
He was thrust into an everyday role in the playoff race, at a very young age. One of the brightest young talents in the sport.
He’s going to be a really special hitter. He’s somebody that we’re looking to take a big leap this year, now that he’s seen what the big leagues are all about.
He’s gone through some struggles like every player this day and age.
But this guy is a really exciting, prodigious, special young hitter. He’s going to have a great career.”
Elias is probably right.
With his youth and prodigious talent, there is every reason to believe Holliday is going to have a great MLB career.
The worrisome part if you’re an O’s fan, however, is that it seems like they believe that’s going to happen right away. Even with his improvement in the second half last season, there are still signs for concern.
While Holliday was better, he was still a below-league average hitter with a .650 OPS in the 50 games that he played in the second half of the season.
Furthermore, the strikeouts still piled up for him at an alarming rate, whiffing 51 times in 172 plate appearances over those final 50 games.
While it wasn’t the 50% strikeout rate he posted in April, a 29.6% strikeout rate over a larger sample size isn’t going to help anyone sleep at night.
To be sure, as Holliday continues to grow and mature as a player, as well as adjust to major-league pitching, we should see him improve continually.
The way Elias is talking, though, it seems as if they expect the youngster to immediately be a top-end contributor by making a “big leap”. Given his rookie season struggles, that’s still a bit difficult to believe.
I want to be clear that I remain bullish on Holliday long term. He has the goods to be one of baseball’s biggest stars. After his struggles in 2024, though, consider me dubious that all goes away in the 2025 season, despite Elias potentially thinking on the contrary.
