Which team is projected as better? On 20 April, FanGraphs projected the Diamondbacks to win more games (82 vs 68). Only the Rockies were projected to win less games than the White Sox.
The Diamondbacks are better in four top-level comparisons.
- Offense. This season through 17 April, the Diamondbacks averaged one more run scored per game (4.45 vs 3.45).
- Defense. The Diamondbacks are better by a wide margin (Outs above average, OAA +2 vs negative 5, Defensive Runs Saved, DRS +14 vs negative 7).
- Bullpen. This season through 19 April, shutdown performances by the Diamondbacks bullpen were more than double the White Sox bullpen (33 vs 16).
- Starting Pitcher Matchups. The Diamondbacks have an overall edge: first game is clear advantage D-backs (Kelly vs Burke), second game is slight edge D-backs (Rodriguez vs Kay), and third game is equal (Soroka vs Martin).
White Sox Player to Watch.
Munetaka Murakami is a player worth watching.
Power Batter. He hit 7 home runs in his first 21 MLB games, which was 2 more than Ohtani hit in his first 21 MLB games as a batter. In the most recent six games through 18 April, Murakami hit 1.325 OPS with 7 RBIs.
First Baseman. He played 8 seasons in Japan before this season. He is a rookie in MLB. In Japan, he started his career primarily at first base until 2021 when he became primarily a third baseman. This season, in spring training and the regular season he played at first base.
White Sox. He was asked why the White Sox. Per his translator, this is what he said:
“I feel there are a lot of exciting young players here. Just as I played when my career panned out in Japan, I went to a team that was very young and we got to the promised land of winning a championship there. And I kind of feel something similar here. And I feel like I’m destined to be here.” — Munetaka Murakami, January 2026
The batting lineup of the White Sox has 6 of 9 players 25.0 years old or younger. Munetaka is 26.2 years old.
Merrill Kelly. This will be his second start of the season. That appearance was a confidence builder that his injury is behind him. This game, he will likely pitch even better!
Sean Burke. Burke is arguably an average pitcher (ERA+ of 99). On the other hand, ignoring his latest start (4 earned run in 5.1 innings), this season his strikeouts outnumber walks (15 vs 3), and he allowed zero homers. So, it’s possible that he may challenge Diamondbacks batters. They are up to the challenge.
This matchup of starting pitchers is clear advantage Diamondbacks.
Eduardo Rodriguez. In his first four games, his 1.96 ERA is comparable to June of 2025, when his ERA was 1.98. This season his ERA+ of 211 is a career best.
Anthony Kay. In 2024 and 2025, he pitched in Japan. This season his ERA+ of 169 is a career best.
This matchup of starting pitchers is slight edge Diamondbacks.
Michael Soroka. His last start was a quality start (2 earned runs in 7 innings). This season, he started 4 games, and was credited with 4 wins. Unexpectedly, he emerged as a solid part of the rotation.
”I think I’m better than I’ve ever been. I mean, everybody goes through some sort of injuries at some point in their career, or struggles with performance. And I think for myself, it has always been there. I’ve always been able to kind of show that ability and give teams a reason to believe in me, and I’m very thankful that I’m with an organization that does as much as anybody. So, it’s easy to go out there and want to prove them right.” — Michael Soroka, April 2026
