Max Fried is off the table, but that doesn’t mean the Orioles can’t still land a top starter this winter

Tuesday was a busy day for the free agents left on the board.

The New York Yankees went out and gave Max Fried a monster contract after missing out on Juan Soto, and the Rangers came to terms on a deal with righty Nathan Eovaldi later in the evening.

Fried’s deal will pay him $218 million over 8 years, a good bit more than most experts had predicted.

Fried has been a good pitcher for his whole career and despite some challenges staying on the field in recent years, he has a good chance to live up to that deal. Eovaldi is another tier down but has been consistently solid for the past four years.

With those two off the board, the options for the Orioles are running thin if they want to land a top-tier starter this winter.

The guy who makes the most sense for Baltimore is still Corbin Burnes.

The righty is expected to get a truckload of cash this winter but he was exceptional with the Orioles in 2024.

Despite some concerns about a couple declining metrics, Burnes has been one of the better starting pitchers in the majors dating back to 2020.

While the strikeouts aren’t quite there like they were at his peak, he’s still an above-average strikeout pitcher, he’s done well limiting walks, and he’s one of the best in the sport in terms of limiting hard contact.

Plus, Burnes is about to enter his age-30 season so he should have a number of prime years left before he really starts to see a decline.

3 options for the Orioles now that Max Fried and Nathan Eovaldi are off the table

If the Orioles are unwilling to pony up the cash for Burnes, they might be better off looking at the trade market for a solution.

The remaining free agent starters outside of Burnes don’t inspire a ton of confidence and there are trade options outside of Garrett Crochet that would make a lot of sense from the O’s perspective.

Recently, the Astros have been rumored to be considering trading Framber Valdez thanks to a roster crunch.

Valdez has just one year of control left before he’ll hit free agency, so it makes sense for the Astros to try to move him now and see what they can get back. It’ll also free up some cash if they want to retain star third baseman Alex Bregman.

If the Astros do intend on moving Valdez, it’s tough to see a better potential target for Baltimore.

The lefty is coming off a year in which he pitched to a 2.91 ERA with 169 strikeouts in 176.1 innings and is set to make roughly $12 million in his final year of arbitration.

Over the past four years combined, he has a 3.08 ERA with an above-average 23.1% strikeout rate and hardly any injury issues. He’ll be expensive, but he’s a perfect fit for the top of the Orioles’ rotation.

Multiple MLB team execs tell me prices for FA pitchers are high, and relatively few clubs are willing to pay them.

This creates incentives for *contenders* to listen to trade offers on their starting pitchers.

Framber Valdez is one. Dylan Cease is another.@MLBNetwork

— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) December 10, 2024

If the O’s don’t want to run that route, or if the Astros decide to keep Valdez close to the vest, Seattle has a bunch of intriguing arms that could be on the table.

Many will point to Luis Castillo, as a trade involving the righty would free up payroll space for the Mariners to acquire another hitter. But another strong target would be righty Bryce Miller.

Miller is coming off an exceptional year in which he posted a 2.94 ERA with a 3.58 FIP and a 24.3% strikeout rate in 180.1 innings.

He’s also not a free agent until after the 2029 season, so it’s possible the Mariners are just totally uninterested in moving him. But if there’s a team that could offer the right prospect talent to acquire Miller, it might just be the Orioles.

It would cost the Orioles a pretty penny to get Miller to Baltimore. It would likely require one of Coby Mayo or Samuel Basallo, and likely an additional big piece on top of that.

But Miller fits so perfectly with what the Orioles need. He’s a young pitcher with ace potential, who has already had a high level of success at the major league level. He could come in and pitch alongside Grayson Rodriguez for years to come.

While the Orioles might inevitably choose a different path, it’s critical that they make a move to improve the rotation during the winter.

They won’t get Kyle Bradish back until mid-season at best, so if they want to keep pace in the AL East, they’ll need to have the right pieces in place on Opening Day or risk getting lost in the shuffle.