The Los Angeles Rams are 5-2 in their last seven after getting healthier, specifically along the offensive line. But this is still a team with a -34 point differential, which is fifth-worst in the NFC and 10 points worse than the team the San Francisco 49ers just blew out last week.

Before we preview the Week 15 rematch, let’s go back to the game between these two teams in September.

A trip down memory lane

In Week 3, without Deebo Samuel and Christian McCaffrey, the 49ers held leads of 14-0 and 24-14 before crumbling in the fourth quarter to the Rams.

The 49ers scored touchdowns on an 8-play, 70-yard drive and a 13-play, 77-yard drive to begin the game. Defensively, they forced two punts. It was a dream start to the game that could have been even better before halftime, but Colton McKivitz gave up a sack, and Brock Purdy fumbled as the Niners were going to score.

After forcing a punt and marching 91 yards down the field to take a 21-7 lead to begin the third quarter, the Niners wouldn’t find the end zone for the remainder of the game.

The Rams answered a Niners score with a touchdown of their own. The two teams then exchanged field goals. But Jake Moody’s missed field goal that would have effectively put the game out of reach — it would have been 27-17 with 3:32 to play, left the door open for the Rams.

If you give Sean McVay and Matthew Stafford an inch, they will take a mile. And in this scenario, they did.

Tutu Atwell got behind Charvarius Ward for a 50-yard bomb, and the Rams scored in under a minute to tie the game at 24. The offense punted within a minute, the Rams had a 38-yard return, and poof, the double-digit lead was gone, and Los Angeles escaped with a 27-24 victory.

Whatever could go wrong did go wrong in Week 3. Now, the 49ers head into Thursday with revenge on their minds and desperation in their souls.

Desperate times call for desperate measures

George Kittle told the media that there was a private team meeting where essentially everybody on the squad was called out. Kyle Shanahan said Brock Purdy spoke in front of the team and not only expressed high expectations for himself but also demanded the same from his teammates. Kittle’s message was more about playing with desperation and showing effort.

When the quarterback speaks, everybody listens. And judging by Week 14’s results, the players bought into what Purdy said. Kittle’s words may have resonated more with the defense, as we saw life from that side of the ball and a level of energy that had been absent for more than a month.

Obnoxious Outliers

Looking back, it took a lot for the Rams to overcome multiple double-digit deficits to beat the 49ers the first time. I’d argue what we saw in Week 14 from the Rams against the Buffalo Bills was even more of an obnoxious outlier.

By now, you know that I appreciate everything about Stafford and the Rams and believe they are one of the most potent offenses in the NFL. That doesn’t mean they’re 44 points in a game deadly.

Stafford completed 76 percent of his 30 attempts, but that still sells short the Rams’ offensive performance. There were a few completions that were nothing short of a Christmas miracle:

Puka Nacua finished with a catch rate over expectation of 16.3 percent. Kyren Williams was at 22.8 percent, and Tutu Atwell was at 19.4 percent. If you redo five of those plays, they go in the Bills’ favor nine out of ten times.

Why is last week an outlier? The Rams didn’t score a touchdown in the first half against a New Orleans Saints defense that ranks 26th in weighted schedule-adjusted efficiency defensively. New Orleans has the second-worst run defense by those same metrics but ranks 12th against the pass. Stafford only threw for 183 yards and completed only 58 percent of his passes.

The week before, against an Eagles defense widely regarded as one of the best in the NFL, they scored one touchdown in each half before a garbage score when it was 37-14 with under two minutes to play. In between those two touchdown drives were three consecutive three-and-outs. Stafford was below 200 yards passing before that garbage time drive.

That bodes well for the 49ers’ defense, but the other side of the ball will be the reason San Francisco comes away victorious.

As of writing, there’s a 46 percent chance of precipitation, with gusts of wind up to 10 miles per hour for roughly 30 minutes, per Accuweather. Mother Nature will determine when that takes place and how accurate the forecast is.

The Rams run the ball often but haven’t been explosive (25th in EPA per rush since Week 9). Rain would neutralize both offenses to a degree. But if the rain is temporary or holds off, we can expect plenty of passing from Brock Purdy.

Pass happy Kyle

We can expect a pass-happy Kyle Shanahan during the final four games. During the previous four games, the Niners had the sixth-lowest pass rate over expectation.

Of course, those numbers are skewed due to a snow game and a backup quarterback playing in two of those games. It also doesn’t do the offense any favors heading into Thursday night potentially without its top four running backs from the preseason.

One of the most telling box scores from the past month was how much success rookie Drake Maye had against these Rams when they were on the road. Maye’s leading receiver that afternoon was old friend Kendrick Bourne. He finished with 70 receiving yards. Two other players had over 50 receiving yards, and two more eclipsed 30.

Maye completed 74 percent of his passes, finished third among all QBs in completion percentage over expected, and sixth in EPA per dropback in Week 11. Los Angeles made a rookie quarterback without any “true” weapons look like a star. After that game, Sean Mcay said, “he looked like a stud.”

The Saints are 19th offensively in weighted schedule-adjusted efficiency and only 24th through the air. Yet they managed to put up 327 yards against the Rams.

The Eagles did the thing where they gave it to Saquon Barkley, but A.J. Brown still went over 100 receiving yards.

Last week, Josh Allen threw for 342 yards, and the Bills did whatever they wanted whenever they wanted to.

Some, myself included, have been critical of Shanahan passing in situations where they should run the ball. Despite all the injuries, the 49ers are fifth in schedule-adjusted passing efficiency this season. It’s what they do the best.

Conversely, Los Angeles doesn’t seem too keen on defending anybody. They’re 24th overall against the pass using schedule-adjusted efficiency. If we use numbers from Week 9 and on, the Rams are 24th defensively in EPA per play and 25th in dropback success rate. They’re 17th at defending WR1s, 21st at WR2s, 31st at defending the slot, 12th against tight ends, and 28th against running backs.

Slot machine

Jauan Jennings is probably licking his chops to get another crack at the Rams. Jennings had the best game of his life in Week 3 against Los Angeles, topping 175 yards on 12 targets, with a couple of miracle grabs himself.

Jennings caught all five targets from the slot that afternoon for 61 yards and a pair of touchdowns. It should be Deja Vu for Jauan, especially after a similar performance last week where he finished with the fourth-most yards in the slot, had the second-most first downs, and caught all six of his targets for 83 yards and two touchdowns.

Bills wideout Mack Hollins caught a 21-yard pass in the slot last week. He’s 6’4, and a similar stature to Jennings. Buffalo’s primary slot target, the barely 6’ Khalil Shakir, had five receiving yards in the slot on three receptions.

No team has an answer for Jennings in the slot, and that should continue down the stretch, starting against the Rams.

The question isn’t whether the 49ers will move the ball and score; it’s whether they will have enough answers for the Rams.

Regression to the mean

This will be the first game the 49ers have faced Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua. But Kupp does not look the same. He only has seven targets beyond 20 yards, which tells me the 4.45 speed is no longer there. Even on intermediate targets, Kupp is struggling. He’s catching 52 percent of his 23 targets.

During the season, 61 of Kupp’s 91 targets were under 10 air yards. Dinking and dumping your way down the field is not how you beat the Niners passing defense that has been top three in the NFL this season at defending short passes. They’re third when it comes to taking away the deep pass. It’s the middle of the field for the first time since Fred Warner began patrolling that area, where the defense has struggled the most.

That could change if a certain No. 57 is back in action.

Kupp and Nacua have been listed on the injury report all year. A short week benefits the 49ers, especially with Nacua fresh off a game where he had 14 targets. I have a hard time believing the Rams’ top two targets will be effective with a few days’ rest.

On the flip side, none of the Deommodore Lenoir, Renardo Green, or Charvarius Ward trio were on the field for more than 45 snaps against the Bears. The secondary, along with the defense, should be well-rested.

If I’m Nick Sorensen, I get an extra set of eyes on Nacua. Make somebody else beat you. His feel for zone coverage is superb, so if you plan on sitting back in zone, you better get home. That’s where Nacua and Kupp do most of their damage, finding the vacated areas in zone coverage.

The Rams don’t run the ball well. Instead, they heavily rely on Nacua in the screen game, which is another area that plays into the strength of the Niners’ defense. Lenoir loves bullying the blocker to make the tackle near the line of scrimmage. Green has the same level of aggression, but Malik Mustapha takes the cake.

To slow down Nacua, Sorensen might have to step outside his comfort zone and embrace more man-to-man concepts.

There aren’t many ways to slow down Nacua, but man-to-man is your best bet, knowing that it’ll take a perfect throw and catch, with the timing needing to be excellent. The Rams are going to move the ball and score points themselves, but you have to get in the receivers’ faces and challenge them. Make them work and earn yards instead of giving them consistent free releases down the field. The Eagles did that on Sunday Night football a couple of weeks back and had plenty of success.

Philadelphia also had 12 pressures and five sacks. In Week 10, the Miami Dolphins, in a game where they held the Rams to 15 points, had 15 pressures and four sacks. The Bills never got home against Stafford, and he made them pay.

The 49ers generated a 46.4 percent pressure rate against Stafford in Week 3. That’s the highest number the Rams have surrendered all season. Now, San Francisco would love to turn that into more than three sacks, but pressure leads to mistakes, which could also mean more turnovers. Stafford hasn’t turned the ball over in four games. But before that streak, he had thrown an interception in six consecutive games.

Of course, it’s a different 49ers pass rush this time around. Javon Hargrave led the way that game with six pressures and a sack. Nick Bosa, who may or may not play, added four pressures.

No matter who the 49ers have along the defensive line, there are too many examples of them besting the Rams upfront. Week 3 was also the coming out party for Sam Okuayinonu, who sacked Stafford and pressured him twice on only five pass rushes.

The 49ers athletes up front have been too much for the Rams to contain throughout the years. Even with the Rams having a healthy offensive line, I’ll lean into history with the 49ers pass rush prevailing in this one.