Let’s just say 2026 is going to be pivotal.

Recently, Bleacher Report’s Brad Gagnon highlighted defensive end Nick Bosa as the San Francisco 49ers’ most overpaid player.

At first glance, Niners fans may cringe a little bit at the thought. After all, minus Bosa for all but three games last season, San Francisco’s pass rush stumbled to a league-low 20 sacks, thereby putting an emphasis on not only grabbing help this offseason but also ensuring Bosa returns fully healthy from his 2025 ACL tear, the second he’s suffered since the 49ers drafted him in 2019.

That said, Gagnon has a point. Ever since Bosa cashed in on his lucrative (and tense) extension following his career-best 2022 campaign in which he recorded 18.5 sacks, the numbers haven’t come close to matching the paychecks:

Bosa is awesome, but his production fell off markedly in back-to-back seasons before he missed all but three games in 2025. It’s fair to wonder if he peaked as Defensive Player of the Year in 2022. If so, that five-year, $170 million contract will become problematic. He is the seventh-highest-paid defensive player in football.

The Niners’ top edge rusher had 10.5 sacks in 2023, followed by nine in 2024.

While the declination of sacks is concerning in itself, Bosa’s pending contractual numbers raise questions San Francisco has to consider in the not-too-distant future.

Nick Bosa could become a needed 49ers cap casualty in 2027

Needless to say, Bosa’s return from injury this upcoming season will be a critical factor to monitor in whatever long-term decisions the 49ers have about his tenure.

Bosa’s 2026 cap hit is at $22.99 million, which is reasonable and shouldn’t create any sort of concerns. But, as Over the Cap laid out, the 2027 cap hit is substantial: $54.87 million, less than $800,000 of which is guaranteed.

The Niners are likely to broach that question in one way or another an offseason from now.

But, if Bosa doesn’t quite deliver like a top-10 defensive lineman, is it feasible he winds up being released the following offseason? From a financial perspective, it’d make sense.

Should San Francisco designate Bosa as a post-June 1 release in 2027, it’d still cost $22.46 million in dead money but would also save a notable $32.41 million in cap savings. It’s also worth noting how Bosa will turn 30 years old in 2027, too, meaning his peak years are probably behind him at that point.

That puts a notable amount of pressure on the pass-rusher to live up to that lofty contract signed back in 2023.

To date, it’s be