The young catcher’s prospect shine is brighter than it’s ever been. Should the Braves capitalize on his perceived value, or hold onto him as a potential cornerstone?

At the onset of the offseason, the Atlanta Braves seemed well-positioned to trade their prized catching prospect, Drake Baldwin. They had Sean Murphy under contract through at least 2028 as the primary catcher and an $8M club option on clubhouse favorite Travis d’Arnaud. Beyond that, Chadwick Tromp would still be waiting in Triple-A should Murphy or d’Arnaud get injured during the season, so trading Baldwin in the right deal wouldn’t hurt too much.

However, things changed when the Braves surprised many by declining d’Arnaud’s club option. With d’Arnaud rejoining Ron Washington in Anaheim, the Braves roster as currently constructed will likely see Tromp as the backup catcher and Baldwin continuing to play regularly in AAA as the primary depth piece in case of injury.

The question of whether or not to trade Drake Baldwin is closely tied to your outlook on Sean Murphy. In his press conference following the Braves early exit in the playoffs, manager Brian Snitker mentioned that the plan heading into this past season was for Murphy to catch about 75% of the team’s games. Despite a hideous 2024 that included poor performance and a significant injury, the Braves’ willingness to move on from d’Arnaud signals that they are again planning to rely on Murphy for the lion’s share of the playing time in 2025. Furthermore, it may also signal that they are confident in Baldwin’s MLB-readiness should Murphy falter.

Had Murphy’s 2024 resembled anything like the rest of his career, this question would be easier to answer. There would be no plans to take playing time away from a top 5 catcher in the sport, so rather than relegating a top prospect like Baldwin to AAA or a backup role, they would be more prone to capitalize on the value he built in 2024 by using him in a trade to fill another hole on the roster. Should depth be a concern, they could always sign a backup catcher to keep Tromp in AAA, or sign another minor-league depth option if they wanted to use Tromp as the backup in Atlanta. However, with Murphy having posted a 78 wRC+ in 2024 and just a 70 wRC+ in the second half of 2023, some fans might be reluctant to give away what could be Murphy’s replacement if his recent stretch of poor performance is actually a sign of decline rather than an aberration.

If you’d like to be optimistic on Murphy, you can certainly make a very reasoned and measured case for it. Entering 2024, Murph had a career 119 wRC+ and had never been below a 100 wRC+ in any of his five seasons at the big league level. His 78 wRC+ looks like a statistical outlier, and it’s possible that you could explain it away by tying the poor performance to his injury (never got his timing back, playing through discomfort, etc.). And yes, he struggled in the second half of 2023, too, but you can chalk most of that up to extraordinarily bad luck. He had a .344 xwOBA in the second half of 2023 compared to just a .277 wOBA. For reference, there were 14 other players with at least 100 PA and an xwOBA between .343 and .345 during the 2nd half of 2023, and their actual wOBAs ranged from .316 to .403. League average wOBA in 2023 was .318, so the worst outcome of the other 14 players who had similar inputs to Murphy (walks, strikeouts, exit velocities and launch angles, etc.) was a league average hitter. The best outcome of that group was better than what Marcell Ozuna did in 2024.

If you’d like to be pessimistic on Murphy, you could point out the aforementioned terrible results at the plate since the All-Star break of 2023. You could counter that it’s not unusual for him to underperform his expected stats (career .349 xwOBA vs. .330 wOBA). Crucially, you could also note that his defense this past season was subpar for his standards, as he graded out as only slightly above average as a framer and his average pop time slipped down from the 86th percentile in 2023 to just the 63rd percentile in 2024. (It’s worth mentioning that he still graded out as a tremendous blocker.)

Let’s look now at what the Braves stand to lose if they trade Baldwin.

In a season of mostly dark and tragic storylines for the Braves’ position players, Baldwin’s 2024 breakout was a bright spot. The LHH catcher held his own at Double-A Mississippi, posting a 96 wRC+ across 217 PA in a notoriously tough ballpark to hit in, but then he exploded in Triple-A with an impressive 135 wRC+ over 334 PA. His plate discipline really stands out – his 15.6% BB and 16.2% K both ranked comfortably in the top 20 in the International League – but he also hits the ball with authority. Out of 312 players who recorded at least 250 plate appearances at the Triple-A level, Baldwin ranked #1 among them in xwOBA. His 92.8 mph average exit velocity ranked 2nd and his 53.1% Hard-Hit rate ranked 4th. He even hit a 411 foot opposite field home run in the All-Star Futures Game. In short, he absolutely raked.

While the bat seems very real, Baldwin’s defensive profile behind the plate is a bit murkier. The general narrative from the folks at Battery Power who follow him closely has been that he’s improved a lot and looks to be a legitimate option behind the plate at the big-league level, but wouldn’t likely be a standout defensively. As evidenced by the William Contreras / Sean Murphy trade, the Braves are extremely particular when it comes to their catchers’ defensive abilities. If they don’t feel confident in Baldwin’s defensive ability, they may prefer to deal him.

If the Braves decide that they can’t give up a bat of Baldwin’s caliber, however, they may try to get creative in order to get his bat into the lineup – especially since he hits from the left side. It’s possible that they test him out in left field a bit during Spring Training, and perhaps he’d find a permanent home there. There have also been a few players over the years who spent most of their time in the outfield while also catching 20+ games a season (Kyle Schwarber, Daulton Varsho, and MJ Melendez to name a few), and it’s not impossible to think that the Braves could look to use Baldwin in a similar capacity. They could also simply be patient, leave him in Triple-A for most or all of 2025 and use him in a hybrid catcher/DH role in 2026 after Ozuna’s contract expires.

The different sources for prospect rankings are not yet in agreement on Baldwin’s outlook. FanGraphs views him as the 30th best prospect in the sport (3rd among catchers). Baseball America ranked him 77th (9th among catchers). MLB Pipeline left him out of their most recent top 100 rankings. If you’d like to take the average there (assuming that Baldwin isn’t far outside the top 100 by MLB Pipeline), you’d likely look at him as a top 75ish prospect in the league. But, as they say, beauty is in the eye of the beholder. The Braves have their own perspective of how Baldwin stacks up to the other prospects in the league, and they’d want to find a trading partner who values him more similarly to FanGraphs than MLB Pipeline.

So, there it is. Do you trade Baldwin to a team that is looking for a primary catcher of the future and sign some other backup/depth catcher for cheap? Do you hold onto him in case Sean Murphy continues to struggle? Do you test him out in the outfield? The decision is not up to us, but the outcome of this poll is. Choose wisely.