The Pittsburgh Steelers sit at the 21st overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft, and speculation is swirling about whether they might use that selection on Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson — if he lasts that long.

Alabama Crimson Tide quarterback Ty Simpson

Simpson turned heads by declaring for the draft after just one season as the Crimson Tide’s starter. Despite the limited track record, many analysts view him as a strong first-round candidate. ESPN’s Dan Orlovsky has been especially vocal, arguing that Simpson is a better prospect than Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza, who has been widely projected as the No. 1 overall pick for months.

When pressed about Orlovsky’s bold take, longtime NFL Draft analyst Mel Kiper Jr. pushed back hard, highlighting one major red flag in Simpson’s profile.

“You think about the experience… Fifteen starts is a dangerous, risky number for Ty Simpson,” Kiper said on The Dan Patrick Show. “You know the seven, eight quarterbacks that had below 20 starts, and look how they fared—not well. So again, that’s a risky number.”

Kiper added that another year at Alabama would have given Simpson valuable reps to smooth out his game and better prepare for the NFL’s speed and complexity.

This lack of starting experience is impossible for the Steelers’ front office to ignore. Simpson finished his college career with just 15 starts, while Mendoza boasts 35. That’s a massive gap in on-field learning, decision-making under pressure, and adjusting to defensive schemes.

For a franchise desperate for long-term stability at quarterback, betting a first-round pick on a player with so few starts carries real risk. If Simpson is forced into action too soon, he could struggle to adapt, repeating college mistakes at the highest level.

That said, Pittsburgh might not need to throw him straight into the fire. Depending on how the offseason unfolds — with veterans like Will Howard, Mason Rudolph, or potentially even Aaron Rodgers in the mix — Simpson could spend time developing behind a bridge quarterback. This would allow him to learn from the sidelines, study the pro game, and ease into the role rather than being the immediate savior.

Even with that potential cushion, the inexperience remains a legitimate concern. History shows that quarterbacks with very limited college starts often face steep transitions to the NFL. The Steelers would be drafting Simpson as their future franchise signal-caller, not a quick fix for 2026, which softens the risk somewhat — but doesn’t eliminate it.

Kiper’s blunt warning puts Pittsburgh in a tough spot. If Simpson slides to No. 21 and the team likes his arm talent, accuracy, and processing enough to pull the trigger, they’ll have to weigh his clear upside against the glaring lack of reps. It’s a high-stakes gamble that could define the next era of Steelers football — or haunt them if the transition proves too rough.

In a draft where experience versus raw potential is sparking heated debate, Simpson represents the ultimate dilemma for a franchise that can’t afford another missed swing at the quarterback position. The Steelers are now trapped between the hype and the harsh reality of those 15 starts.