For the Chicago Cubs to win the NL Central, they will need standout performances and healthy seasons from their starting rotation.

Losing Justin Steele for the year badly hurt their depth in 2025, but starters like Cade Horton and Matthew Boyd stepped up in his absence.

Boyd, a first-time All-Star last year, is entering the second season of a two-year, $29 million contract with the Cubs. He’s made 30 or more starts just three times in 11 big league seasons, mostly due to injuries.

Panelists from The Athletic are hesitant about Boyd repeating the success he had during his first season with the Cubs, after he posted a 3.21 ERA with a 5.8 walk percentage and 154 strikeouts in 31 starts.

Why there’s a ‘pessimistic’ outlook for Boyd in 2026

“Good for a solid, back-end arm,” one executive told The Athletic about Boyd.

“But many of our panelists were pessimistic about Boyd putting together a repeat,” wrote a trio of journalists from The Athletic, including Andy McCullough, Will Sammon, and Sahadev Sharma.

Health has been a significant issue for Boyd, and there’s cause for concern after he threw 179.2 innings, the second-highest total of his career. Tommy John Surgery in 2023 limited the lefty to just eight starts with the Cleveland Guardians in 2024.

“Very good 2025,” one scout told The Athletic, “but that was his first healthy year since 2020.”