The odds of the Atlanta Braves keeping Max Fried are slim to none, if only because the southpaw is expected to receiver a deal close to $30 million annually. As good as Fried is on the bump, the Braves can use that money elsewhere – though a couple of their options are suddenly off the table.

The Braves did extend Fried a qualifying offer before he started negotiating with teams. Fried has interest from most the AL East, including the Yankees, Red Sox, Orioles and Blue Jays. One of those teams, however, could be on the verge of backing out thanks to the QO. Yes, the Baltimore Orioles don’t want to forfeit draft capital just to sign Fried. That limits their options quite a bit.

Knocking one team off their perch for Fried is a successful day in Atlanta. If Fried’s price tag comes down even $5 million, perhaps he’ll be within range for the Braves and Alex Anthopoulos. If not, he is surely headed to a bigger market.

Braves signing Max Fried remains unlikely, but chances are improving

Another factor working in the favor of Fried in this case is the Braves failure to sign Willy Adames, or spend on a lucrative free agent thus far. Adames signed with the San Francisco Giants for far more money than the Braves were willing to pay. That is fair, as giving Adames that much money comes with some risk.

The Braves have a few needs this winter, including outfield depth, a new shortstop and some starting pitching. The order in which they address those issues doesn’t really matter, as long as they take care of business. Should Fried sign elsewhere, it would open up some financial capital to spend on a replacement and then some. If they keep Fried, completing the roster become even tougher.

I am of the mindset that Fried will sign in the AL East, rather than Atlanta. The writing has been on the wall since last spring, when the two sides failed to come close in extension talks. Anthopoulos knows how good Fried can be at his best. He also knows that Fried has suffered injuries in recent seasons, and Atlanta’s rotation features the current NL Cy Young winner and several All-Stars to boot. The return of Spencer Strider sometime next season should only strengthen their core.

It’s not worth reaching on Fried, as sad as it’ll be to watch him go. But for now, there is hope.