MLB contract grades: Orioles replace Anthony Santander with former division rival

Sep 20, 2024; Baltimore, Maryland, USA;  Baltimore Orioles outfielder Anthony Santander (25) runs to the dugout after the top of the second inning against the Detroit Tigers at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-Imagn Images

The Baltimore Orioles entered this offseason with as much pressure as any team out there. First and foremost, the team has underwhelmed in back-to-back postseasons. Second, both Corbin Burnes and Anthony Santander – two of the team’s best players – are free agents.

Baltimore’s first major offseason move addressed their outfield, but it didn’t involve bringing Santander back. The team has reportedly signed Tyler O’Neill to a three-year deal worth $49.5 million per Jon Heyman of the NY Post. There is an opt-out after the 2025 season.

This move is especially notable, as it’s the first free agent that GM Mike Elias has signed to a multi-year deal.

While Baltimore can certainly still elect to bring Santander back, this deal obviously makes that extremely unlikely. With Colton Cowser, Cedric Mullins, and Heston Kjerstad all MLB-caliber outfielders, there are only so many at-bats to go around in the outfield.

If Santander was going to depart, O’Neill — a player Baltimore is familiar with given the fact that he spent the 2024 season with the Boston Red Sox — was one of the best alternatives for the Orioles to look at. That price tag certainly helps, as well.

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Orioles find ideal Anthony Santander replacement by poaching former division rival

Replacing Santander is no easy feat. He has spent all eight of his MLB seasons with the Orioles and he seemingly keeps getting better as he ages. This past season saw him set career-highs with 44 home runs and 102 RBI. He was an All-Star, won a Silver Slugger, and even received some MVP votes.

Santander has averaged 35 home runs and 95 RBI in his last three seasons, while also playing in 153 regular season games on average. Sure, he doesn’t add much in terms of speed, and his defense in the outfield leaves a lot to be desired, but that bat is as good as any in free agency among those not named Juan Soto.

Losing Santander (if that’s the final outcome) stings, but O’Neill certainly has the upside to be as good, if not better than Santander.

O’Neill was acquired by the Red Sox last offseason coming off a couple of down seasons which also saw him miss time due to injury. He played in just 113 games this past season but still managed to hit 31 home runs. His home run rate (6.6 percent) was equal to that of Santander, showing just how much power is in his bat.

In addition to the power O’Neill can provide, he walked a ton this past season, has a tremendous outfield arm, and runs a whole lot better than Santander.

Going from Fenway Park to Camden Yards is bound to impact O’Neill’s power to an extent, but not to the extent that we might’ve thought just a month ago. The Orioles announced that they’re planning on moving the left-field fence in, making it easier for right-handed boppers like O’Neill to have success.

O’Neill might not have Santander’s power, strikes out a lot, and does come with durability concerns, but he possesses immense upside. He didn’t only excel in his lone season in Boston, but he was so good in 2021 to the point where he finished eighth in the NL MVP balloting.

Santander is great, but O’Neill might be a more well-rounded player given his ability to play the field and run a little bit. There are some red flags, but O’Neill is only set to make around $16 million annually – which is pretty cheap considering how expensive free agents are. Plus, if he plays well in 2025, there’s a good chance he’ll opt out, allowing the Orioles to avoid any longer-term durability issues.

Losing Santander is a big blow, but O’Neill at his best will make it difficult to notice that Santander is actually gone. O’Neill’s 2.6 bWAR was only slightly lower than Santander’s 2.9 despite the former playing in 42 fewer games than the latter. Again, durability does mean something, but O’Neill at his best is an awesome get. Plus, if this opens up more money for the team to re-sign Corbin Burnes or another high-end arm, that makes it an even bigger win

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