This story was excerpted from Mark Bowman’s Braves Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.
ATLANTA — The Braves are approaching next week’s Winter Meetings with multiple needs and the reality that they would face stiff penalties if they exceed the competitive balance tax threshold for a third straight season.
According to FanGraphs’ RosterResource, the Braves’ estimated luxury tax payroll stands just north of $217 million. This is approximately $24 million shy of MLB’s first luxury tax threshold for the 2025 season. But the current payroll projection doesn’t include the combined costs of the starting pitcher, outfielder(s) and reliever(s) Atlanta must add this winter.
Teams that carry payrolls above the threshold are taxed on each dollar above the threshold, with the tax rate increasing based on the number of consecutive years a club has exceeded the threshold. The Braves would be taxed at a 50 percent rate because this would be their third straight year to exceed the threshold.
This wouldn’t be a significant deterrent if a team were to exceed the threshold by a few million dollars. But a significant overage could result in essentially adding another player cost to the payroll.
President of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos will continue to weigh all the variables as he journeys through an offseason that became more challenging via recent injury news. Frontline starter Spencer Strider could miss the season’s first month while recovering from elbow surgery and 2023 National League MVP Ronald Acuña Jr. might miss at least six weeks while recovering from knee surgery. Top setup man Joe Jiménez could miss all or most of 2025 while recovering from his own knee procedure.
The rumor mill will be circulating as the Winter Meetings take place from Sunday through Wednesday in Dallas. Follow comprehensive coverage via MLB.com, Braves.com and MLB Network.
The current projected Opening Day outfield would be Michael Harris II in center, Jarred Kelenic in left and Eli White/Carlos Rodriguez/write-in candidate in right. So, there is an obvious need for at least one outfielder to account for Acuña’s absence through most of the first third of the season. That outfielder could also provide insurance as Kelenic again tries to prove he can be an everyday big leaguer.
Adding a starting pitcher will compensate for Strider’s early-season absence and provide insurance as the Braves evaluate whether Ian Anderson, AJ Smith-Shawver and other fifth-starter candidates are ready to become rotation mainstays.
Jiménez’s injury and A.J. Minter’s free-agent departure have created significant voids in the bullpen. Minter could return via signing, but it may take him time to round into form following hip surgery. Look for the Braves to pursue a legit high-leverage arm to pair with Pierce Johnson as setup options.
How will the Braves replace Max Fried?
An obvious option would be to re-sign the veteran left-hander who stands as one of this year’s top free-agent starting pitchers. But unlike with recent free-agent departees Freddie Freeman and Dansby Swanson, there has never been a sense Fried will re-sign with Atlanta. With Strider likely to miss April, the only current locks for Atlanta’s Opening Day rotation would be Chris Sale, Reynaldo López and Spencer Schwellenbach. Thus, reuniting with Charlie Morton, signing another free-agent starter or grabbing an arm via trade is a significant need.
POTENTIAL TRADE CANDIDATES
Many teams have unsuccessfully tried to land right-handed pitching prospect Hurston Waldrep, who may fall in the untouchable category. Catcher Drake Baldwin is Atlanta’s second-most attractive trade piece. But with Travis d’Arnaud’s departure, the Braves may be hesitant to reduce depth at this premium position. So, the best trade piece may be Smith-Shawver, who ranks as MLB’s No. 97 prospect. Smith-Shawver has MLB experience and the upside that has grown since he began pitching again before his 2021 senior season in high school.
Braves fans have seen Smith-Shawver (Atlanta’s No. 2 prospect) both of the past two seasons. They got a glimpse of Waldrep (No. 3) and Nacho Alvarez Jr. (No. 4) last year. If Baldwin (No. 5) isn’t traded, there’s a good chance he’ll debut for Atlanta next summer. The talented left-handed-hitting catcher’s stock has risen over the past two years. He homered during this past summer’s Futures Game and concerns about his defense have lessened during his first couple of pro seasons. Chadwick Tromp might begin the season as Atlanta’s backup catcher, but Baldwin could fill that role after a little more Minor League seasoning.
Left-hander Luis De Avila (No. 15) is the only member of the team’s Top 30 Prospects list who could be taken during the MLB portion of the Rule 5 Draft. But his walk rate will likely lead other teams to pass on the requirement to keep him on their big league roster all of next season. Atlanta hasn’t made a selection in the MLB portion of the Rule 5 Draft since Anthopoulos took over before the start of the 2018 season.
