The MLB offseason has yet to really catch fire, but the few moves that have been made suggest that if teams want to acquire high quality talent in free agency, they’re going to have to sign some big checks.

Blake Snell is the most significant name to come off the board, who signed a five-year, $182 million contract with the Dodgers. It was a little higher than expected, but he’s a two-time Cy Young award winner, and the Dodgers don’t really have a budget. It wasn’t too alarming.

But these next few deals that have come since are very indicative of a market that isn’t going to be very team-friendly this offseason, which isn’t ideal for the Braves.

The first two happened on the same night, with Matthew Boyd signing a two-year, $29 million contract with the Cubs and Frankie Montas signing a two-year, $34 million deal with the Mets. Neither contract is all that gaudy of a number, but when diving into what these two pitchers have done over the last several years, it’s pretty shocking they were able to find two-year deals worth $15-17 million annually.

Matthew Boyd hasn’t made more than 12 starts since 2019, and while he pitched well to end last season for the Guardians, he owns a 4.85 ERA over 10 MLB seasons. There’s a little bit of upside there, but not enough to warrant a two-year deal, at least that wasn’t the case in previous offseasons.

Frankie Montas at least has a track record from earlier in his career to reference, when he was a frontline starter. However, he only made one start in 2023 and followed that up with a 4.84 ERA over 30 starts this year. That’s worth $34 million over two seasons?

But the icing on the cake came today, when the Oakland A’s decided to make Luis Severino, of all people, their highest free agent signing in franchise history, inking him to a three-year contract worth $67 million.

Now, I like Severino. I was actually pounding the table for the Braves to sign him last offseason before he inked a one-year deal with the Mets, and he had a pretty good season in New York. Most notably, he was able to stay healthy, making 30 starts and compiling a 3.91 ERA and 8.0 K/9. Severino deserved to get paid, but $22+ million over three years for a middle-of-the-rotation arm is insanity.

All this to say, Alex Anthopoulos better be working the phones, because the Braves landing a high-caliber starting pitcher in free agency looks like a long shot unless they are willing to spend big.

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Photo: David J. Griffin/Icon Sportswire