Even in his final decade without a playoff win, Mike Tomlin retained his superpower. His uncanny ability to win tight, one-possession games was unmatched. Some might call it luck, but after 20 years of a literal and figurative sterling record, it wasn’t just chance. His ability to keep the team calm and composed in the game’s final moments made him and the Steelers clutch. Can Mike McCarthy match Tomlin’s mark? And how good has McCarthy been in the same situations?
Below are two tables to compare Tomlin and McCarthy’s read in one-possession games. To keep timelines exactly the same, I broke them down into McCarthy’s tenure with the Packers and Tomlin’s time with the Steelers — 2007 to 2018 — the years in which both men coached. I did the same with McCarthy’s time with the Cowboys, 2020-24.
Record In One-Score Games
2007-2018
| Coach | One-Score Record | Win % (Rank) |
|---|---|---|
| Mike Tomlin | 61-45-1 | .575 (3rd) |
| Mike McCarthy | 50-42-2 | .543 (10th) |
2020-2024
| Coach | One-Score Record | Win % (Rank) |
|---|---|---|
| Mike Tomlin | 37-15-1 | .708 (2nd) |
| Mike McCarthy | 25-20 | .556 (9th) |
Tomlin is ahead in both breakdowns. Tomlin got even better in his later years, despite not having Ben Roethlisberger for three of those seasons, 2022-2024. Perhaps in part due to the Steelers’ offense scoring less that created closer outcomes. Still, Tomlin found a way to come out on top at a high clip.
McCarthy, to his credit, was respectable. He ranked top-10 in both sections with an above .500 mark.
Let’s look at the total of their careers. All of Tomlin’s and all of McCarthy’s. Because their coaching tenures aren’t perfectly aligned, I don’t have a rank league-wide.
| Coach | One-Score Record | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Mike Tomlin | 118-68-2 | .619 |
| Mike McCarthy | 79-64-2 | .552 |
McCarthy’s number is solid, but Tomlin’s is clearly better. An incredible 50 games above .500 compared to McCarthy’s 15, though Tomlin played in close games far more often.
One last look. How do their one-score records compare to their career win percentages no matter the score? Here’s the math.
One Score Games Compared To Overall Winning Percentage
Mike Tomlin: -.009
Mike McCarthy: -.056
Both are worse compared to their overall win/loss percentage. Tomlin just by a nose while McCarthy’s number is larger. It suggests McCarthy struggles more in one-score games than Tomlin, who was virtually identical to his career mark.
I know these numbers contain lots of variables. Pittsburgh being able to win by more than one score would be a refreshing change. In McCarthy’s 18 years, he coached more two-possession wins (100) than Tomlin did in his 19 seasons (82). A more potent offense can offer that. Still, in an AFC North where games are inevitably close, McCarthy will have to borrow some of Tomlin’s magic to squeeze out hard-fought victories.
