MARCUS SEMIEN PROJECTED TO OUTPERFORM FREDDY PERALTA IN 2026 WAR PROJECTIONS FOR NEW YORK METS

🚨 A SURPRISING PROJECTION FOR THE NEW METS: As the New York Mets prepare for the 2026 season, fans are eager to see their new additions take the field and make an impact following a tough 2025 campaign. With several key offseason acquisitions, including Bo Bichette, who is expected to play a huge role, it’s no surprise that he leads the team in projected WAR for 2026. However, when it comes to the second-highest projected WAR, the answer may come as a surprise to many.

While the expectations were high for Freddy Peralta, one of the best pitchers in baseball, and his impact on the Mets’ rotation, the Steamer projections from FanGraphs suggest that Marcus Semien, the veteran second baseman, is expected to be the second-most valuable player on the team by WAR in 2026—outperforming Peralta and several other high-profile newcomers.

WHY SEMIEN RANKS HIGHER THAN PERALTA IN PROJECTIONS

While comparing a top-of-the-rotation pitcher like Freddy Peralta to a starting-caliber second baseman like Marcus Semien is not exactly an apples-to-oranges comparison, the Steamer projections have their reasons for favoring Semien.

Semien, a Gold Glove defender and durable player, is projected to log significant plate appearances in 2026. Even though he might not bat at the top of the Mets’ lineup (unlike his previous spot with the Texas Rangers), Semien is still expected to play a large role in the lineup due to his consistent durability. This leads to his projected 3.1 WAR, which surpasses Peralta’s 2.7 WAR despite the significant difference in roles.

Projections are often cumulative stats, meaning that more plate appearances and opportunities for Semien will provide more chances to accumulate value. Even though Semien will likely bat lower in the Mets’ lineup, he is expected to make up for this with consistency and defensive value.

THE CASE AGAINST FREDDY PERALTA’S PROJECTION

While Freddy Peralta is one of the top pitchers in the game, Steamer’s projections seem to suggest a decline in his performance in 2026. The right-hander is expected to see his ERA rise from 2.70 in 2025 to 3.80 in 2026. Additionally, strikeouts are projected to fall, with Peralta expected to record fewer than 10 K/9 for the first time since 2022. Steamer also predicts an increase in his HR/9 rate, from 1.07 in 2025 to 1.20 in 2026. This could be concerning given that Peralta has struggled with home runs in previous seasons, with rates of 1.35 in 2024 and 1.41 in 2023.

Despite his great 2025 season, Peralta’s ability to maintain elite production in 2026 is in question, and the projections don’t fully buy into his strong run last year. This is one of the key reasons why Semien‘s WAR projections come out higher than Peralta’s, especially when you factor in the offensive bounce-back Semien is expected to have.

MARCUS SEMIEN’S EXPECTED IMPROVEMENT IN 2026

For Marcus Semien, Steamer sees a rebound in his offensive production, with projections of 22 home runs and a 103 wRC+, which would be an improvement over his 2025 numbers, where he posted 15 home runs and a 89 wRC+. With his strong defense, Semien is likely to provide a significant amount of value both at the plate and in the field.

While Semien might not be the flashiest name in the Mets’ new acquisitions, his consistency, defensive value, and expected offensive rebound make him an incredibly important player for the team in 2026. His expected 3.1 WAR highlights how much value he could provide despite being overshadowed by other more prominent additions like Bo Bichette.

CONCLUSION: SEMIEN AS A SURPRISING X-FACTOR

While Freddy Peralta‘s role in the Mets’ rotation is crucial, Marcus Semien‘s projected value is a reminder of the importance of consistency and defensive value in a player’s overall impact. Even with the disparity in their roles—Peralta as a starting pitcher and Semien as a position player—Semien is expected to contribute significantly in 2026, possibly even outproducing Peralta by WAR.

As always, projections can be unpredictable, but this ranking certainly adds an interesting dimension to how the Mets’ roster shapes up for the upcoming season. While Peralta might still be the team’s ace, Semien could end up being a pivotal figure in the team’s drive to improve after a tough 2025 campaign.