Arrowheadlines: The Chiefs have their work cut out to win AFC’s top seed

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Chiefs have seventh-hardest remaining strength of schedule | Chiefs Wire

According to the experts at Pro Football Network, the Kansas City Chiefs’ remaining strength of schedule is the seventh-hardest in the NFL heading into Week 14.

The Chiefs control their own destiny in the race to win the AFC’s No. 1 playoff seed but will have to face the Los Angeles Chargers, Cleveland Browns, Houston Texans, Pittsburgh Steelers, and Denver Broncos to earn a coveted first-round bye and home-field advantage in the postseason.

When the 2024 schedule came out, it seemed that Kansas City’s most difficult task would be its first five games before the Chiefs’ bye in Week 6.

NFL Week 14 picks: Lions win Thursday thriller over Packers, Chiefs clinch AFC West with win over Chargers | CBS Sports

Basically, the Chiefs always seem to struggle at some point during the regular season and then we all write them off and then they eventually get the last laugh by winning the Super Bowl. It’s a tale as old as time and I’m not falling for it this year.

The Chiefs beat the Chargers 17-10 back in Week 4 and a big reason that happened is because Kansas City’s defense held L.A. to a season-low 55 rushing yards. The Chargers are 1-4 this season when they’re held under 90 yards on the ground and that’s not good news for an L.A. offense that’s about to face one of the three teams in the NFL that’s surrendering less than 90 yards per game on the ground.

I’m guessing this will go like almost every other Chiefs’ game this season: It will be a nail-biter that goes down to the wire before the Chiefs find a way to win it late.

The pick: Chiefs 20-17 over Chargers

PFF’s 2024 NFL Third-Quarter All-Pro Team: Lamar Jackson, Myles Garrett, Brock Bowers and more | PFF

Left Guard: Joe Thuney, Kansas City Chiefs

Thuney’s 91.4 PFF run-blocking grade leads all guards so far this season, which ranks behind only Mailata and Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive tackle Tristan Wirfs among all offensive linemen. He has impressed as a pass-blocker too, with just eight pressures allowed from 524 pass-blocking snaps.

Center: Creed Humphrey, Kansas City Chiefs

The best center in the NFL so far this season, Humphrey’s 93.8 PFF grade trails only Mailata among all offensive linemen. He has earned a 92.2 PFF run-blocking grade through 13 weeks and has permitted just six total pressures from 524 pass-blocking snaps.

Report Card Grades for 2024 NFL Draft 1st-Round Picks | Bleacher Report

Kansas City Chiefs: WR Xavier Worthy, C

Everyone wondered how the rest of the NFL could let the Chiefs draft the fastest player ever, after Xavier Worthy’s record-breaking 40-yard-dash effort at this year’s NFL combine.

However, the 21-year-old hasn’t been the threat some thought he could be. He’s not the next Tyreek Hill in Kansas City. So far, he’s been a solid option on a team searching for any wide receiver to help Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce.

This year’s 28th overall pick has produced more of as of late, with 13 receptions for 161 yards over the last three games. His grade can receive a bump if he continues to contribute more down the stretch.

Super Bowl 2025 odds: Bills, Eagles, Chiefs in dead heat behind Lions | The Athletic

The Detroit Lions are the sole favorite to win it all at +275 after surpassing the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 11. But now the Chiefs have company in second place, with the Buffalo Bills and Philadelphia Eagles rising to meet them. The three teams are in a dead heat at +500 odds to win it all.

NFL Week 13 Under Review: Surprise, the Eagles Have the League’s Best Defense | The Ringer

This is the worst Chiefs team that Patrick Mahomes has been a part of.

Whoa, whoa, whoa. Take it easy. I’m not saying they’re cooked. Let me explain. We all watched the Chiefs on Black Friday and saw a game that followed a familiar script: KC looking unimpressive but somehow coming away with a win against a lesser opponent. This time around, they beat Las Vegas 19-17 after the Raiders lost a fumble on a botched snap while already in field goal range in the final moments of the game. Chiefs fans celebrated another victory that moved them to 11-1. The rest of the football-watching world yelled in unison: “THEY CAN’T KEEP GETTING AWAY WITH THIS!”

The Chiefs are now 9-0 in games decided by seven points or fewer. Since 2000, no team has had a better record in one-score games through 13 weeks. One more nugget: Since 2000, there have been 23 teams with at least 11 wins through the first 13 weeks of a season. Among those teams, the average point differential is plus-139. The 2024 Chiefs are at plus-54. Not only is that way lower than the average, but it’s 34 points worse than any other team in the sample! According to DVOA, the estimated number of wins for a team with the Chiefs’ profile is 7.5.

The question is: Do those fancy numbers tell us anything at all about the Chiefs’ chances to win the Super Bowl? Maybe. Statistically, this is the worst team that the Chiefs have had since Mahomes became the starter in 2018. In the previous six seasons, the Chiefs never finished worse than sixth in overall DVOA. This year, the Chiefs are 12th. They have issues at offensive tackle, wide receiver, and cornerback. Oh, and their pass rush isn’t great. So yes, this version of the Chiefs is absolutely more vulnerable than previous versions. If this team had any other quarterback, I’m not sure it would even sniff the playoffs, let alone compete for a Super Bowl.

Around the NFL

Texans’ Azeez Al-Shaair suspended 3 games after Trevor Lawrence hit | ESPN

The NFL suspended Houston Texans linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair three games for repeated violations of player safety rules after his hit to the head of Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence on Sunday.

Jon Runyan, the NFL’s vice president of policy and rules administration, announced the suspension Tuesday, adding in a letter to Al-Shaair that the league deemed the hit “unacceptable” and that his “continued disregard” for rules governing player safety “will not be tolerated.”

Al-Shaair was ejected in the second quarter of Houston’s victory Sunday over Jacksonville after his violent blow to the face mask of Lawrence while the quarterback was sliding to the ground, causing the Jaguars star to suffer a concussion.

In case you missed it on Arrowhead Pride

Chiefs Film Review: Drue Tranquill’s coverage and abandoning the run

One thing I could leave behind: Andy Reid’s second-half play-calling

Over his long career, Kansas City’s head coach has often been criticized for his clock management — and abandoning his running game in crucial situations. Most of the time, I think these points are exaggerations. But in Friday’s game, I believe he made a mistake by abandoning the run.

It’s true that against the Raiders, the Chiefs struggled to run the ball. Except for a 34-yard run by Isiah Pacheco, he and Kareem Hunt had 13 carries for 25 yards. Kansas City had a rushing success rate of just 14%; just one of their 13 early-down carries was successful.

So, in the second half, Reid ran passing plays almost exclusively. Excluding plays stopped by penalties, the Chiefs ran 33 plays in the second half. The offense dropped back on 27 of them — a staggering pass rate of 82%.

This isn’t exactly new. Reid will often have game sequences where a high proportion of passing plays are called — and with a quarterback as good as Patrick Mahomes, that’s understandable. Even when defenses know Kansas City is going to throw, Mahomes has the talent to succeed.