The Soto Score: How signing MLB’s No. 1 free agent would shift his suitors’ fortunes

The Soto Score: How signing MLB's No. 1 free agent would shift his suitors' fortunes

EXCLUSIVE CONTENT

Get ESPN+

The Soto Score: How signing MLB's No. 1 free agent would shift his suitors' fortunes
Juan Soto would make any team better (including Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s Blue Jays). But exactly how much better varies. We put a number on it. Jim McIsaac/Getty Images
  • The Soto Score: How signing MLB's No. 1 free agent would shift his suitors' fortunes

    Bradford Doolittle, ESPN Staff WriterDec 4, 2024, 07:00 AM ET

    Close

    • Sports reporter, Kansas City Star, 2002-09
    • Writer, Baseball, Baseball Prospectus
    • Co-author, Pro Basketball Prospectus
    • Member, Baseball Writers Association of America
    • Member, Professional Basketball Writers Association

The Juan Soto chase appears to be nearing a conclusion. As the offseason’s biggest domino wobbles, it’s a good time to illustrate what’s at stake when it falls.

From a pure baseball standpoint, Soto’s pending decision should capture the interest of all 30 teams. News flash: Soto is really good. He’s also still only 26 and the team that lands him should get to watch him continue to build on a first-ballot Hall of Fame career for the next decade or more.

That makes one interpretation of his impact blatantly obvious: If you sign Soto, he makes you better. If you don’t, you aren’t going to be as good as you would have been if you did.

We know Soto will make any team that signs him better by around five wins, all things being equal. That number varies somewhat, but that’s a good thumbnail number — the difference between Soto and whatever player his acquisition would push down the depth chart.

Not every team can afford to pursue him though, and the competitive context for each team that can is different. This is what we want to focus on today — competitive context. Those five wins matter more, and in different ways, depending on which suitor we’re talking about.

So let’s talk about some of those suitors. The rumor mill has given us five leading possibilities — teams believed to have already forwarded offers to Soto and superagent Scott Boras. Those are the Yankees, Mets, Dodgers, Red Sox and Blue Jays.

To that quintet, we’ll add three teams:

• The Phillies, just because you never know when Dave Dombrowski will swoop in.

• The Giants, because they typify teams that should arguably be more aggressive in the Soto market (and others) but haven’t shown much indication that is going to happen.

• The Royals, who were briefly attached to Soto very early in the process for, reportedly, making a call about him. But the Royals typify the kind of midlevel team in a not-large market that might get an outsized gain from a splash like this. It won’t happen, but it’s illustrative to see how much of an impact a player of Soto’s value could have on clubs.

Related Posts

🚨 TRADE MOVE: The Boston Red Sox have reportedly traded a struggling right-hander and a prospect to the Chicago White Sox, signaling a shift in their roster strategy. Could this move help the Sox get back on track, or is it just a move to free up space for future acquisitions?

Red Sox Swing 12th Trade of the Offseason, Clear Salary and Add Gage Ziehl in Prospect Swap with White Sox The Boston Red Sox have made their…

🚨 MAJOR ANNOUNCEMENT: Dodgers’ Freddie Freeman has announced his retirement plan, signaling the end of an iconic career in Major League Baseball. As one of the greatest hitters of his generation, Freeman’s decision marks the beginning of the end for a Hall of Fame-worthy career. What’s next for the Dodgers and the MLB legend?

Freddie Freeman Announces Plan to Retire from MLB in 2030 Los Angeles Dodgers first baseman Freddie Freeman, a beloved figure in the Dodgers’ clubhouse, has revealed his…

🚨 RED SOX MISSTEP: In a stunning turn of events, the Red Sox appear to have made a big $15 million mistake involving Eugenio Suarez, according to conflicting reports from around the league. Instead of bolstering Boston’s infield and power potential, critics now argue this investment may backfire—potentially leaving the Sox short on value and hurting flexibility in 2026.

Red Sox’s $15 Million Mistake: Missing Out on Eugenio Suarez Could Haunt Boston’s Infield Plans The Boston Red Sox entered this offseason with one glaring need: filling…

🚨 HIDDEN GEM ALERT: The Boston Red Sox may have found a hidden gem in the Jordan Hicks trade, according to experts. This move could turn out to be one of the most underrated acquisitions of the offseason—how does Hicks fit into the Red Sox’s plans for 2026, and what does this mean for their pitching staff?

Red Sox Find Hidden Gem in Jordan Hicks Trade: What to Expect from Gage Ziehl The Boston Red Sox made waves with their recent trade with the…

🚨 TRADE RUMORS: The New York Yankees are reportedly interested in signing a veteran outfielder, sparking excitement among fans as the offseason heats up. Could this experienced addition help the Yankees push deeper into the postseason, or is this move just part of their broader strategy for 2026?

New York Yankees Rumors: Team Interested in Veteran Outfielder Randal Grichuk As spring training rapidly approaches, the New York Yankees are exploring potential additions to their roster,…

🚨 TRADE PROPOSAL: A new Cubs trade idea has emerged, showing exactly what it would take to land Tarik Skubal from the Detroit Tigers. This potential move could bolster Chicago’s rotation, but would it be worth the cost? Fans are buzzing about whether the Cubs will make the move—what could this mean for their pitching staff in 2026?

Chicago Cubs Consider Trade for Tarik Skubal: What It Would Take to Land the Detroit Tigers Ace The Chicago Cubs are on a mission this offseason, aiming…