Astros’ Rotation Battle: Ranking the Contenders for the Final Two Starting Spots

The Houston Astros’ rotation picture has shifted dramatically this offseason. What once looked like a dangerously thin group now has depth – not necessarily elite depth, but depth with options. With the additions of Mike Burrows, Ryan Weiss, Nate Pearson, and Tatsuya Imai, Houston now has a crowded field of arms aiming to fill out what’s expected to be a six-man rotation.

Four names are essentially locked in: Hunter Brown leads the way, with Imai, Cristian Javier, and Burrows rounding out the core. That leaves two rotation spots up for grabs as we approach spring training – and the competition is shaping up to be fierce.

Let’s break down the five leading candidates vying for those final two spots, ranking them from least to most likely to secure a role in the Opening Day rotation.

5. AJ Blubaugh: The Long Shot with Long Relief Potential

For AJ Blubaugh, 2025 was a rollercoaster. In Triple-A Sugar Land, he struggled to a 5.27 ERA, but when called up to the big club, he flipped the script. In three starts and eight relief appearances for the Astros, he dazzled with a 1.69 ERA – a small sample, sure, but an eye-catching one.

Still, Blubaugh enters camp as a dark horse. His ability to be optioned and his success in multi-inning relief roles might make him more valuable as a bullpen piece, particularly in a six-man rotation where durability and flexibility are key. He’s likely ticketed for Sugar Land to start the year, but if the rotation falters or injuries strike, he could be one of the first names called.

4. Nate Pearson: The Once-Hyped Prospect on His Last Chance

Nate Pearson’s career has been a case study in unrealized potential. Once a top prospect with the Blue Jays, the right-hander has yet to put it all together at the major league level. His most recent stint – a 9.20 ERA out of the bullpen for the Cubs – didn’t inspire much confidence.

Still, the Astros saw enough to bring him in early in the offseason on a $1.35 million deal. Pearson has the stuff, but the consistency and health have never followed.

He’ll need a strong spring to stick around, and given his recent track record, the leash will be short. If things don’t click quickly, he’s an easy cut.

3. Spencer Arrighetti: The Prospect Waiting in the Wings

Spencer Arrighetti flashed potential during his rookie season, finishing with a 4.53 ERA. There were moments that hinted at mid-rotation upside, but injuries limited his sophomore campaign and left more questions than answers.

The Astros still believe in Arrighetti’s future – and they should. He has all three minor league options remaining, which makes him an easy stash if he doesn’t break camp in the rotation.

But don’t be surprised if he’s one of the first reinforcements if someone struggles or gets hurt. His upside remains intact, and with a clean bill of health, he could force his way back into the mix before long.

2. Ryan Weiss: The KBO Import With Intrigue

Ryan Weiss, affectionately known as “Daejeon Jesus” during his time in Korea, is one of the more intriguing arms in camp. After posting a 2.87 ERA in the KBO, the 29-year-old earned a $2.6 million deal from Houston, along with a $5 million club option for 2027 – a clear signal that the Astros see something worth investing in.

Weiss has yet to throw a pitch in the majors, but his postseason performance in Korea – where he moved to the bullpen and impressed – adds another layer to his profile. While he’s being considered for a rotation spot, that playoff success might eventually lead to a high-leverage relief role. For now, though, he enters camp with a real shot at winning one of the final two spots, thanks to both his recent form and the team’s financial commitment.

1. Lance McCullers Jr.: The Veteran With Something to Prove

At this point, Lance McCullers Jr. isn’t just a familiar face – he’s a storyline unto himself. After battling through a brutal stretch of injuries and setbacks, the veteran righty is entering the final year of his contract, set to earn $17 million. That’s a big reason he’s essentially penciled into one of the final rotation spots.

But it’s not just about the money. McCullers has earned a shot to prove he still has something left in the tank.

The Astros would love nothing more than to see him bounce back and provide stability in the back end of the rotation. Whether his stuff holds up over a full season remains to be seen – and the team will be watching closely.

If it doesn’t work out, Houston has younger, higher-upside arms like Arrighetti or Blubaugh waiting in the wings. But McCullers will get the runway to show he can still contribute, and for now, that makes him the most likely candidate to claim a spot.

Final Thoughts: Depth with Decisions Ahead

The Astros’ rotation battle isn’t just about filling two spots – it’s about managing risk, upside, and workload across a 162-game grind. With a six-man rotation on the table, Houston is leaning into flexibility, and that means the door is open for multiple arms to contribute in different ways throughout the season.

Spring training will be the proving ground. Weiss has the intrigue, Arrighetti has the upside, and McCullers has the track record – sort of. It’ll come down to who shows up ready, who stays healthy, and who earns the trust of the staff when the lights come on.

One thing’s for sure: the Astros have options. Now it’s about making the right calls.