Despite constantly being ranked near the bottom of MLB’s farm system rankings, the Braves seemingly produce a star rookie every single season. This year, it was Spencer Schwellenbach emerging out of nowhere, posting a 3.35 ERA, 3.29 FIP, and 9.2 K/9 over 21 starts. The year prior, Michael Harris II won the NL Rookie of the Year award, with his teammate Spencer Strider finishing second.
Sometimes, the candidates are expected; in other instances, they rise through the ranks in an instant to make an impact. Looking ahead to 2025, the Braves have several top prospects that could play a major role, with MLB.com naming Drake Baldwin Atlanta’s most likely candidate to win the NL Rookie of the Year award.
Braves: Drake Baldwin, C (No. 5)
Brought up as a sleeper pick for National League hardware in a recent Pipeline Inbox, Baldwin may not be under-the-radar anymore. He’s a solid receiver who reached Triple-A and hit 16 homers with a .370 OBP in the Minors, then had a .942 OPS over 13 AFL games before playing for Team USA in the Premier12 tournament in Mexico and Japan. Sean Murphy is in the big leagues, but after he hit .193 last year, the door could be opening.
I have Drake Baldwin pegged as the Braves’ top prospect in the organization, and it’s pretty clear-cut. He’s shown some high-level tools behind the plate, and his stick took a massive step forward in 2024 once he was promoted to AAA Gwinnett.
However, for a player to win Rookie of the Year, an opportunity must emerge. In Baldwin’s case, Sean Murphy is going to be the Braves starting catcher and will probably be behind the plate for over 100 games. That’s what he was brought over to do when Alex Anthopoulos traded for him two offseasons ago, and he’ll finally get that opportunity now that Travis d’Arnaud is in Los Angeles. Unless Sean Murphy goes down with an injury, it’s difficult to see Drake Baldwin getting enough playing time to justify him being a Rookie of the Year candidate.
Based on the current construct of the roster, the Braves prospect arms will have the best chance to make an impact next year, and there are a couple that are on the cusp of being major-league ready.
AJ Smith-Shawver is a high upside pitcher that’s already had a couple of cups of coffee in Atlanta. It feels like it’s about time that the Braves give him a little longer leash and see if he can stick in the rotation. He’d be my pick for the club’s most likely candidate to win the Rookie of the Year award, even if it’s a long-shot. Hurston Waldrep would be next. He needs some more seasoning in AAA, but as we’ve seen in the past, that can happen quickly with talented arms.
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Photo: Jeff Robinson/Icon Sportswire
