The Chicago Cubs are officially on the board this offseason, with the New York Post’s Jon Heyman reporting that the team has reached an agreement with left-handed pitcher Matt Boyd on a two-year, $29 million deal. While it’s not the big splash that Cubs fans are no doubt desperate for after a 83-win season in 2024, there’s plenty to like about the move in a vacuum: Boyd has struggled with injuries and inconsistency throughout his career, but he was dynamite down the stretch for the Cleveland Guardians this past season, and there’s reason to believe that some tweaks he’s made have helped him unlock a new level as a pitcher.

Chicago needed to add not just one but multiple pitchers this offseason, and they got a good back-end option with some upside. $29 million might seem like a lot, but it’s the going rate right now — just look at the $34 million the New York Mets gave Frankie Montas a few hours earlier.

And even more intriguing than the Boyd signing itself is what it potentially signals about Hoyer’s other plans for this offseason. If he’s the only (or the best) addition the Cubs make to their rotation over the next few weeks, it’ll be a colossal failure. But Chicago spending this money on this player at this particular time strongly suggests that won’t be the case — and puts the writing on the wall for the team’s biggest trade chip.

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At this point, it’s an open secret that Chicago wants Bellinger gone this winter. Hoyer was reportedly surprised and displeased that his slugger opted in to another year on his current contract, locking up $27.5 million in payroll for good but not great production. The team clearly feels that it can better allocate that money elsewhere, and has begun looking for suitors who might be willing to take the former NL MVP off its hands.

It’s unclear just who that suitor might be, or what a Bellinger deal might look like. But signing Boyd to this contract signals that Hoyer is pretty confident of finding one at some point this offseason. The Cubs began free agency with around $55 million of room before the first luxury tax threshold, reportedly a barrier that the team doesn’t want to cross. Adding Boyd shaves that number down to around $40 million; not insignificant, but not enough to accommodate another impact addition to the rotation while rebuilding the bullpen.

Unless, of course, the Cubs find a way to get out from under most of Bellinger’s deal. In that case, then a run at someone like Jack Flaherty or Sean Manaea, in addition to a reliever like Tanner Scott or Jeff Hoffman, becomes perfectly realistic. If Hoyer knew that he only had $55 million to play with for the rest of the winter, chances are he would’ve been a lot more prudent with it, biding time to see which back-end option might fall through the cracks and be available at a relative discount. Instead, he pounced, paying a small premium in order to convince Boyd to sign right here, right now. That sure sounds like an executive who isn’t worried about budget constraints just yet, and that means that Bellinger is likely to be on the move at some point sooner rather than later.