Yankees Shouldn’t Plan for Historic Aaron Judge Production Forever

By Joseph Randazzo | 8 Hours Ago

The New York Yankees have been blessed with Aaron Judge, one of the most powerful and consistent hitters the game has ever seen. Over the past few years, Judge’s performance has been nothing short of historic, establishing himself as a cornerstone for the Yankees’ lineup and the face of the franchise. However, as much as fans may want to believe in Judge’s unwavering dominance, the reality is that no player, not even Judge, can maintain this level of production forever.

The Meteoric Rise of Aaron Judge

In 2021, Judge had what could be considered a “pedestrian” season by his usual standards. His first full season since 2017 was marred by fluke injuries, including a wrist injury from a hit-by-pitch and the global pandemic that disrupted many players’ routines. Despite these setbacks, Judge still posted an impressive 37 home runs in 148 games, alongside a 150 wRC+, demonstrating that even in an “off” year, Judge remained one of the most dangerous hitters in baseball.

However, nobody could have predicted what would follow. In 2022, Judge exploded onto the scene with 62 home runs, breaking the American League home run record, and winning his first Most Valuable Player award in what became one of the greatest seasons in baseball history. Since that historic season, Judge has continued to establish himself as a dominant force in the league, winning three MVP awards, and consistently outperforming some of the best players in the game, including Shohei Ohtani, Bobby Witt Jr., and Cal Raleigh.

Judge’s performance since his MVP campaign has been phenomenal: .311/.439/.677 with a 204 wRC+ in 2,537 plate appearances. And while he did have a short injured list stint in 2025, he was still on track to hit 60 home runs before the injury derailed his pursuit of another historic season. Even in the midst of a serious injury, Judge has still managed to hit 53 home runs, reminding everyone why he’s regarded as one of the best hitters in the game.

But as incredible as Judge’s production has been, there’s a warning from those who know the game.

One Scout’s Cautionary Tale

According to an anonymous National League scout, as incredible as Judge’s performance has been, such historic numbers aren’t sustainable forever. The scout suggests that, while Judge’s production has been once-in-a-lifetime, it might not last at this level for much longer.

“They’ll probably always be fine because they always are,” the scout said, adding that while the Yankees can rely on Judge’s talents, it’s important not to expect him to maintain this pace forever. “Judge is a once-in-a-lifetime player on a streak I don’t think we thought we’d see again after the steroid era. He’s already done things we’ve never really seen, but it can’t go on forever.”

The scout’s comments point to the reality of Father Time. As great as Judge has been, no player can maintain such historic production indefinitely, especially as they age and face the natural wear and tear of a long career.

“He hit 62 homers and then got better, so maybe he won’t fall off like other guys his age,” the scout continued. “But I don’t think you can plan on it. Look, he’s still maybe the best hitter in the game. Next year or the next? Who knows?”

The uncertainty of Judge’s future production looms over the Yankees, especially when considering that baseball players’ performances tend to decline as they approach their 30s, and Judge is no exception. While he’s defied the odds so far, history suggests that maintaining such elite production year in and year out is a tall order for any player.

The “Glass Half-Empty” Scenario

What happens if Judge’s production falls off, even just a little? A “down year” by Judge, which still would be elite by most standards, would be a major setback for the Yankees, especially considering how reliant the team has become on his bat in recent years.

Imagine a scenario where Cody Bellinger, who had a comeback year in 2025, regresses to the mean and fails to provide the same offensive spark. Or Giancarlo Stanton, who has been a key power hitter for the Yankees, begins to show the wear and tear of age and injuries. Perhaps Trent Grisham, the highly-touted outfielder acquired by the Yankees, fails to meet expectations, reverting to his inconsistent form from previous years. And if Jazz Chisholm spends a prolonged period on the injured list, as he has in the past, and Austin Wells and Anthony Volpe struggle once again, the Yankees could find themselves in a tough spot.

This scenario isn’t so far-fetched. Even in 2022, when the Yankees seemed to be firing on all cylinders, their lineup wasn’t without its flaws. The supporting cast, while capable of good stretches, has often been inconsistent. Judge’s brilliance is what often carried them through tough spots, but if his numbers drop even slightly, it could be disastrous.

Even worse, the Yankees’ pitching rotation in 2026 could prove problematic. While their rotation has the potential to be one of the best in baseball, the bullpen still has plenty of question marks, having been one of the worst among playoff teams in recent years. Without solid pitching, Judge’s bat alone might not be enough to carry the team.

The Risk of Missing Out on Key Acquisitions

As it stands, the Yankees have missed out on big acquisitions like Juan Soto and players like Kyle Tucker, and that may catch up with them in the long run. Despite their star power in Judge, the team has been notorious for failing to build a consistently deep lineup around him. If Judge fails to crack the 40-homer mark and doesn’t deliver the same level of offensive dominance, then the Yankees could be looking at some lean years ahead.

The Yankees have relied on Judge to be their superstar, and while it has paid off in the past, no team can rely on one player to carry them forever. If Judge’s historic run comes to an end, the Yankees will need to rebuild their lineup and find consistent contributors around him. Otherwise, they risk falling into a situation where Judge’s individual brilliance is wasted.

The Path Forward for the Yankees

Looking ahead, the Yankees must plan for a future where Judge’s production may decline. While there’s no denying that Judge will likely remain one of the top hitters in the game for the foreseeable future, it’s essential for the Yankees to have a contingency plan in place for the years to come. They can’t afford to keep relying solely on Judge, and the time to build a stronger, more balanced lineup is now.

The Yankees should focus on bringing in new talent, not just in the outfield but across the entire team. Building a well-rounded roster, rather than putting all their chips on one player, will be key for sustained success in the years to come.

In Conclusion:

As great as Aaron Judge has been, the Yankees must be realistic about the limitations of relying solely on his historic production. While Judge may still be the best hitter in the game, Father Time is inevitable, and the Yankees need to plan for the future beyond Judge’s current streak. It’s time for them to focus on building a team that can thrive whether or not Judge delivers another MVP-caliber season. The path to long-term success for the Yankees lies not just in Judge’s bat, but in their ability to build a deeper, more consistent team around him.

Only time will tell if the Yankees’ plan for the future can keep pace with the extraordinary efforts of Aaron Judge.