Back in 2021, the St. Louis Cardinals thought they had their outfield of the future locked in.
Dylan Carlson, Harrison Bader, and Tyler O’Neill were young, talented, and brimming with potential. Fast forward to 2026, and not only are all three no longer wearing the Birds on the Bat – they’re suiting up for different contenders while the Cardinals themselves are in the midst of a rebuild.
That’s not how the script was supposed to go.
On the same day, two key pieces of that once-promising outfield core found new homes. Harrison Bader is heading to the Bay Area on a two-year deal with the San Francisco Giants.
Meanwhile, Dylan Carlson’s minor league deal with the Chicago Cubs became official – a move that’s sure to raise some eyebrows in St. Louis, given the rivalry.
Let’s start with Bader. He broke into the big leagues with the Cardinals in 2017 and quickly carved out a reputation as one of the game’s elite defensive center fielders.
He brought energy, speed, and a glove that could change games. In his five and a half seasons with St.
Louis, Bader compiled 11.9 bWAR, posted a .729 OPS, and took home a Gold Glove in 2021. Injuries slowed him down in 2022, and that summer he was traded to the Yankees in exchange for lefty Jordan Montgomery – a deal that made sense at the time, but still stung given Bader’s upside.
Carlson, on the other hand, was supposed to be the next big thing. A top prospect in the sport, he debuted in 2020 and looked like a cornerstone piece by 2021, finishing third in NL Rookie of the Year voting.
That performance helped justify the Cardinals’ decision to move Bader – especially with Jordan Walker on the way and O’Neill and Lars Nootbaar producing as well. Carlson’s switch-hitting bat and mature approach at the plate made him a natural fit in the middle of the order.
But the consistency never came. Injuries, role changes, and stretches of underperformance chipped away at his trajectory, and now he’s fighting for a roster spot in Chicago.
It’s hard not to look back and wonder what happened. This was a group that, on paper, had everything.
Bader’s glove. O’Neill’s power.
Carlson’s polish. Nootbaar’s emergence.
And Walker, one of the top prospects in all of baseball, looming on the horizon. For a minute there, it felt like the Cardinals had an embarrassment of outfield riches.
But baseball doesn’t follow the script. O’Neill had a monster year in 2021, finishing top-10 in MVP voting, but couldn’t replicate it.
Bader struggled to stay healthy. Carlson never made the leap.
Nootbaar showed flashes but didn’t fully cement himself. And Walker, while still promising, is part of a new chapter now.
So here we are. Bader in San Francisco.
Carlson in Chicago – and not the South Side, which would’ve been easier to stomach for Cardinals fans. It’s a reminder of how quickly things can change in this game.
Prospects don’t always pan out. Plans don’t always hold.
And the “outfield of the future” can become a footnote in a rebuild before you know it.
Seeing Carlson in a Cubs uniform is going to feel strange. There’s no way around that.
But it also underscores just how much has changed in St. Louis – and how much work remains to get back to contention.
