FanGraphs Provides Favorable Projections for Braves Shortstops

By Harrison Smajovits | 3 hours ago

As Spring Training approaches, the Atlanta Braves find themselves in a challenging position. With shortstop Ha-Seong Kim sidelined due to an injury, the team faces an offensive dilemma. While the severity and recovery timeline of Kim’s injury remain uncertain, it’s clear that the Braves will need to adjust their expectations for the shortstop position heading into the 2026 season. But, despite the setback, Atlanta still has viable options, and FanGraphs’ projections offer insight into how the Braves’ shortstop situation could play out.

While Kim’s absence will undoubtedly affect the Braves’ offensive production, especially in the first half of the season, the projections offer some silver lining. Looking ahead, we’ll break down what to expect from Kim, Mauricio Dubón, and Jorge Mateo as the team navigates this early-season injury.

Ha-Seong Kim’s Injury Impact and Adjusted Projections

For the Braves, losing Kim, who was expected to be a key contributor at shortstop, is a significant blow. Kim’s original projections had him playing the entire season, but now with his injury, FanGraphs has revised his projected games played to just 82 games, meaning he is expected to miss roughly half the season. With a possible return in mid-June, the Braves will be cautious with his recovery, and projections are conservative at best.

When Kim does return to the batter’s box, however, he is still expected to provide more offensive production than what Braves shortstops delivered in 2025. His projected statistics for the season are a .244 batting average, a .706 OPS, seven home runs, and 34 RBIs. Although this isn’t quite the breakout performance many fans were hoping for, it would still represent an improvement over the Braves’ shortstop production in recent years.

Over the course of a full season, Kim’s presence would have been a valuable asset. However, with his injury, the Braves must adjust their expectations and find a way to fill the gap at shortstop until Kim’s return.

Mauricio Dubón: The Likely Short-Term Solution

With Kim out of commission for the first part of the season, the Braves are likely to turn to Mauricio Dubón as their primary shortstop. Dubón’s overall projected production is not too far behind Kim’s, and his solid performance could serve as a temporary, yet valuable, solution for Atlanta.

Projections suggest Dubón will bat .262 with a .677 OPS, contributing five home runs and 30 RBIs. While these numbers are modest, they are still an improvement over what the Braves received from their shortstops outside of Kim’s brief stint in 2025. Dubón is expected to play in 76 games, which is a reasonable estimate given that Kim should return around the halfway point of the season. The projection assumes that Dubón will serve as the starting shortstop while Kim is sidelined, with Kim potentially playing in relief or as a rotational option when needed.

Despite not being the ideal long-term solution, Dubón’s offensive contributions are expected to help stabilize the Braves’ lineup during Kim’s absence. His solid performance would give the team time to adjust without a massive drop-off in production at shortstop.

Jorge Mateo: The Depth Option for Atlanta

While Dubón is likely to take on the bulk of the shortstop duties, the Braves also have depth options to consider. Jorge Mateo, another player in the mix, is projected to see limited playing time but could serve as a backup when necessary. Mateo, expected to appear in 34 games, is a depth option whose primary role will likely be to provide rest for Dubón and Kim as needed.

Mateo’s projected offensive production is modest, with a .226 batting average, a .628 OPS, three home runs, and 14 RBIs. While his numbers might not excite many, it’s worth noting that even Mateo’s contributions are an improvement over what Braves shortstops outside of Kim produced in 2025. The Braves’ shortstop position was a significant weak spot last season, and while Mateo’s production won’t necessarily move the needle, it does represent an improvement in a position that saw little offensive output in previous years.

The Braves’ Shortstop Dilemma: A Glimmer of Hope Despite Injury

Even with Kim’s injury, the Braves are in a better position offensively at shortstop than they were last season, largely due to the projected improvements from Dubón and Mateo. While the team will miss Kim’s presence for the first part of the season, the depth options they have are projected to keep the position from being a complete liability.

As Kim continues his recovery, it’s crucial that the Braves navigate this injury with patience and precision. The potential return of Kim in mid-June provides a ray of hope, but for now, Atlanta will rely on Dubón’s steady performance at shortstop to hold things together.

With the Braves’ offense already one of the most potent in the league, bolstering their shortstop position with competent options like Dubón and Mateo should give the team a fighting chance in the early part of the season. And when Kim returns to full health, his contributions will help elevate the team even further.

Conclusion: A Tough Start, But Hopeful for the Future

The Braves’ shortstop position is in flux heading into the 2026 season, but the team has enough depth to make it through the first few months while Ha-Seong Kim recovers from his injury. Projections for Mauricio Dubón and Jorge Mateo suggest that the Braves’ offense won’t experience a massive drop-off despite Kim’s absence, and the return of Kim in mid-June provides a sense of optimism for the second half of the season.

While the situation at shortstop is far from ideal, the Braves’ depth and solid projections should allow them to remain competitive in the National League East until their star shortstop is back in action. As Spring Training unfolds and the season kicks into gear, all eyes will be on how well Atlanta’s shortstop situation holds up in Kim’s absence, and how quickly Kim can return to full strength to make a significant impact in the Braves’ push for the postseason.