Breaking down Matt Olson's even-year curse and what it means for his Braves future

Matt Olson had a rough 2024 season after putting up an MVP-worthy season a year prior. It seemed like he was always in between and couldn’t really figure out a steady approach. He was missing pitches that he normally crushed and it was concerning. For the Atlanta Braves who have invested a lot in him, this

Olson ended 2024 with a line of .247/.333/.457, including 29 home runs, 98 RBI, 71 walks, 170 strikeouts, and a .790 OPS. He finished the season strong with excellent numbers in September with a .319 average which was a marked improvement. In fact, his second half was sensational, indicated by a .271/.366/.530 slash line with an .896 OPS through 67 games played.

However, when taking a deeper dive into his stats over the years, Olson has developed a curious pattern in years that end in even numbers.

Make that seven homers in Olson's past 22 at-bats here. He needs just two more homers to notch a fourth straight 30-homer season. pic.twitter.com/zCTIEErZxM

— Mark Bowman (@mlbbowman) September 19, 2024

Matt Olson’s performance in even years is odd but what does it mean for his future with the Atlanta Braves?

What does this mean? A curse? Well, that’s a bit hyperbolic but there is a curious pattern in even years. Matt Olson seems to have a lower OPS in even years compared to great numbers in odd years. You can see those numbers below:

2017: .259/.352/.651, 24 HR, 45 RBI, 1.003 OPS
2018: .247/.335/.453, 29 HR, 84 RBI, .788 OPS
2019: .267/.351/.545, 36 HR, 91 RBI, .896 OPS
2020: .195/.310/.424, 14 HR, 42 RBI, .734 OPS
2021: .271/.371/.540, 39 HR, 111 RBI, .911 OPS
2022: .240/.325/.477, 34 HR, 103 RBI, .802 OPS
2023: .283/.389/.604, 54 HR, 139 RBI, .993 OPS
2024: .247/.333/.457, 29 HR, 98 RBI, .790 OPS

Strangely, Matt appears to perform better in odd-numbered years instead of even-numbered ones. What could be causing such a drop in production year over year? Well, it could be multiple things. He could have a poor plate approach one year versus the next or he could struggle against a certain pitch type.

Baseball Savant’s breakdown of Olson’s performance against differing pitch types shows an interesting discovery. Matt sees a lot of fastballs every year which is to be expected and he’s sometimes successful, sometimes not regardless of it being an even or odd year. So, that’s probably not where the issue lies.

He did have a 22.8 whiff percentage on fastballs in 2024 compared to 26.9% in 2023. So, he definitely improved a tad against heaters last season.

However, Atlanta’s slugging first baseman struggles mightily against breaking pitches. He almost always has a bad time facing breaking balls and, except for the 2018 season, his numbers oddly coincide with this strange even/odd year phenomenon. He’s worse in even years against those types of pitches.

See below a breakdown of his numbers against breaking pitches from year to year:

2017: .315 BA, .593 SLG, .410 wOBA
2018: .232 BA, .457 SLG, .335 wOBA
2019: .230 BA, .475 SLG, .321 wOBA
2020: .143 BA, .347 SLG, .238 wOBA
2021: .238 BA, .457 SLG, .354 wOBA
2022: .189 BA, .351 SLG, .278 wOBA
2023: .225 BA, .551 SLG, .366 wOBA
2024: .220 BA, .358 SLG, .283 wOBA

Given that is even MORE pronounced when you look at his numbers against offspeed pitches during even years, this seems to point to an issue with Olson’s plate approach. He hunts fastballs because pitchers throw him so many of them. Unfortunately, when he does this, he is then easily beaten by offspeed and breaking balls because of a sped-up swing anticipating a heater which tracks when you see a whiff rate of 32.5% and an 18.7% put-away rate in 2024.

He makes adjustments in the odd year and improves on breaking pitches, albeit not by a lot. However, it’s enough to notice a difference during an even year. Opposing teams have probably taken notice of these analytics and know they have a good chance of beating Matt with breaking balls if they attack him correctly.

Matt Olson from 7/24-EOS…

271 PA, .289/.384/.565, 16 2B, 16 HR, 12.9% BB, 21.4% K

Looking for a nice bounce-back season from him in 2025.#FantasyBaseball pic.twitter.com/uEdX6Zhs7l

— Eric Cross (@EricCrossMLB) December 1, 2024

New Braves hitting coach Tim Hyers will likely focus on this area with Olson next season. All Matt needs to adjust is his approach to pitch sequencing and make more well-educated guesses at the plate.

If he can do that, he’d become one of the most feared hitters in baseball every year rather than just in odd-numbered years. Luckily for Braves fans, next season ends in an odd number so all signs point to their slugging corner infielder having a great year at the plate.