As the Cardinals head into 2026, the spotlight isn’t just on wins and losses – it’s on opportunity. St.

Louis has a trio of young arms who are all vying for meaningful innings, and how the club chooses to distribute those chances could shape the future of the rotation for years to come. Let’s break down where things stand with three of the most intriguing names in the Cardinals’ pitching mix.

Matthew Liberatore: Still a Work in Progress or Trade Chip in Waiting?

Matthew Liberatore has long been viewed as a potential cornerstone of the Cardinals’ rotation – a lefty with legit velocity and a breaking ball that can buckle knees. But the question remains: has he done enough to be penciled in as a long-term piece?

Let’s start with the good. Liberatore’s raw stuff can be eye-catching.

A fastball that touches 97 mph, a sharp slider, and a curveball with serious vertical drop – it’s the kind of arsenal that makes scouts sit up in their seats. And sure, when you’re comparing him to the likes of Miles Mikolas, Erick Fedde, or Andre Pallante, it’s easy to get caught up in the upside.

But the results? They’ve been more grounded.

Liberatore wrapped up last season with a 4.21 ERA and an ERA+ of 97 – just a tick below league average. That’s serviceable for a fifth starter, but far from the ace ceiling that was once projected for him.

The flashes have been there, but consistency has not.

The Cardinals still have team control over Liberatore through 2030, which gives them flexibility. That kind of control adds value – either as a developmental project or as a trade asset.

Right now, it feels like the latter might be more likely. There’s talent here, no doubt, but if the Cardinals are serious about competing in the near term, they’ll need to decide whether Liberatore is part of the solution or a piece to help acquire one.

Hunter Dobbins: Under-the-Radar Arm with Mid-Rotation Potential

Hunter Dobbins might not be a household name just yet, but the 25-year-old right-hander has quietly put together a profile that suggests there’s more in the tank.

Through 61 big-league innings, Dobbins owns a 4.13 ERA and an ERA+ of 100 – exactly league average. But dig a little deeper, and there’s reason to believe he could be more than just a depth arm. His FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) sits at 3.87, and he’s shown a knack for doing the little things right: limiting walks, inducing ground balls, and avoiding barrels.

What’s missing? Strikeouts.

In today’s game, where power pitching rules the mound, Dobbins hasn’t yet turned his velocity into swing-and-miss stuff. The tools are there – he throws hard enough – but he’s still learning how to turn that heat into a weapon that gets hitters to chase or whiff.

If the Cardinals can help him unlock that next gear, Dobbins could settle in as a reliable No. 2 or No. 3 starter. He’s not flashy, but he’s efficient – and that’s a valuable commodity in a rotation that’s still searching for stability.

Kyle Leahy: The Breakout Bullpen Arm Who Deserves a Rotation Look

At 28, Kyle Leahy might not have the same prospect shine as some of the younger names on this list, but make no mistake – he’s earned a shot.

Leahy is coming off a breakout season in 2025, where he posted a 3.07 ERA across 88 innings. He’s worked out of the bullpen, but with the way he’s thrown, it’s no surprise that FanGraphs currently projects him for a spot in the 2026 rotation.

Now, there are some signs of potential regression – his expected ERA (xERA) sits at 4.45 – but the underlying tools are compelling. Leahy’s elite extension ranks in the 96th percentile, meaning hitters are seeing his pitches later than most. Combine that with a 6’5”, 225-pound frame and a breaking ball with a run value that placed him in the 93rd percentile, and you’ve got a pitcher who’s tough to square up.

His pitch mix is deep, and he’s shown the ability to command multiple offerings. That gives him a chance to not just survive, but thrive, as a starter. If the Cardinals are serious about letting their young arms compete for rotation spots, Leahy should be near the front of the line.

The Big Picture in St. Louis

The Cardinals are at a crossroads with their pitching staff. They’ve got a mix of veterans and unproven arms, but 2026 could be the season they finally let the kids take the wheel. Liberatore, Dobbins, and Leahy each bring something different to the table – upside, efficiency, and momentum – and how the team allocates innings will say a lot about their direction moving forward.

Do they ride with the guys who have shown flashes and trust the development process? Or do they leverage that promise in the trade market to bring in more established help?

One thing’s clear: opportunity is knocking. Now it’s on the Cardinals to decide who’s ready to answer.