BREAKING: What seemed like a minor update on Justin Verlander now feels like a turning point. The Orioles must decide whether to trust reputation — or plan for instability before it’s too late.

Justin Verlander and the Orioles: Why Baltimore’s Interest Still Makes Sense Despite the Questions

The glory days of a legendary career inevitably fade, and for Justin Verlander, many observers believe those days may already be behind him. His most recent major award came in 2022, which also marked the last of his nine All-Star selections. At 42 years old, Verlander is no longer the dominant force who once overwhelmed lineups with sheer velocity and durability.

Still, the numbers and recent performance suggest that writing him off entirely may be premature—especially for a Baltimore Orioles team searching for pitching stability, leadership, and upside as it tries to keep pace in the unforgiving American League East.

A Tale of Two Seasons for Verlander

Verlander’s 2024 season was uneven, which explains much of the skepticism surrounding him. In 17 starts with the Houston Astros, he struggled mightily, posting a 5.48 ERA and frequently looking vulnerable early in games. Those results alone would normally discourage a contender from pursuing an aging starter.

However, the broader picture tells a more encouraging story. Last season with the San Francisco Giants, Verlander made 29 starts, logged 152 innings, and finished with a respectable 3.85 ERA. Even more compelling was how strong he looked in the second half.

After the All-Star break, Verlander recorded a 2.99 ERA over 14 starts, and he was particularly dominant in September, allowing just two earned runs across five appearances for a 2.08 ERA. That late-season surge suggested improved command, sharper stuff, and perhaps most importantly, the ability to adjust—something Verlander has done repeatedly throughout his career.

Underlying Metrics Suggest There’s Still Life Left

Advanced metrics support the idea that Verlander still has something to offer. According to an analysis highlighted by MLBTradeRumors.com, Verlander posted an 11 percent swinging strike rate, his highest mark since 2022. That indicates hitters were still struggling to make consistent contact against him.

His fastball velocity also remained encouraging, averaging 94 mph, which is impressive for a pitcher in his early 40s. While he no longer reaches triple digits regularly, the pitch still has enough life to set up his secondary offerings effectively.

For the Orioles, who value analytical indicators alongside traditional stats, these trends likely play a significant role in evaluating Verlander as a potential acquisition.

Orioles Know Verlander’s Upside All Too Well

Baltimore does not need to rely solely on data to understand what Verlander can still do. The memory is fresh.

On August 31, Verlander carved through the Orioles’ lineup with 10 strikeouts in five scoreless innings, showing flashes of his vintage dominance. That performance was followed by a remarkable stretch in which he delivered:

Six scoreless innings against St. Louis
One run allowed over seven innings versus the Los Angeles Dodgers
Seven scoreless innings against Arizona

Those outings served as a reminder that even if Verlander is no longer elite every start, he can still take over games when everything clicks. For a team with postseason aspirations, that ceiling is difficult to ignore.

Comparing Verlander to Other Orioles Targets

The primary arguments against signing Verlander stem from comparisons to other pitchers the Orioles have pursued this offseason—namely Framber Valdez and Ranger Suárez, the latter of whom ultimately signed with the Boston Red Sox.

Valdez and Suárez are younger, more durable, and viewed as safer long-term investments. They also fit more naturally into the role of a rotation anchor. Verlander, by contrast, carries greater risk due to age and recent inconsistency.

There’s also the concern that Verlander would resemble other recent veteran additions by executive vice president and general manager Mike Elias, such as Charlie Morton (now 42) and Kyle Gibson (38). Those signings provided innings but did not significantly elevate the rotation.

However, Verlander exists in an entirely different class historically.

Verlander’s Resume Sets Him Apart

Few pitchers in MLB history can match Verlander’s résumé. Over 20 seasons, he has accumulated an astounding 82.2 bWAR, dwarfing Morton’s 18.5 WAR in 18 seasons and Gibson’s 14.3 WAR in 13 seasons. That level of sustained excellence matters—not just statistically, but in terms of leadership, preparation, and big-game experience.

Verlander’s strong second half last season suggests that his decline may not be linear. Instead, it hints at a veteran who can still adapt, refine his approach, and contribute meaningfully when healthy.

Adding to the intrigue is Verlander’s familiarity with Elias from their shared time in Houston, where Elias played a role in building championship-caliber rosters. That relationship could facilitate trust and alignment in expectations.

How Verlander Fits into Baltimore’s Bigger Picture

The Orioles’ interest in Verlander makes more sense depending on timing and context. If he were signed earlier in the offseason—perhaps instead of Zach Eflin—his role would be clearer. He could serve as a stabilizing presence while Baltimore continued searching for a true No. 1 or No. 2 starter.

If Verlander is added after other moves, he becomes more of a high-profile depth option—one with upside well beyond that label. In a bounce-back season, he could outperform expectations and provide tremendous value relative to cost.

Still, Verlander is a tougher sell to a fan base eagerly awaiting positive news on Valdez or another frontline ace, especially after missing out on Suárez and seeing constant trade rumors swirl around top pitching targets.

AL East Arms Race Raises the Stakes

Baltimore’s urgency is amplified by the moves made within the division. The Toronto Blue Jays added Dylan Cease and already feature Kevin Gausman, Shane Bieber, Cody Ponce, and Trey Yesavage. The Red Sox now boast Ranger Suárez, Garrett Crochet, Sonny Gray, Johan Oviedo, and Brayan Bello.

The New York Yankees recently acquired Ryan Weathers, still have Max Fried, Cam Schlittler, and Luis Gil, and are waiting for the returns of Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodón, and Clarke Schmidt. Meanwhile, the Tampa Bay Rays feature the formidable duo of Drew Rasmussen and Shane McClanahan, with Steven Matz added to the mix.

Orioles Face Key Questions Moving Forward

Baltimore enters the next phase of the offseason with uncertainty. Kyle Bradish projects as the No. 1 starter, and having him healthy for a full season would be a major boost. Overall depth should improve, which is crucial for a team that has struggled to stay out of trouble when injuries hit.

But questions remain:

Who is the next pitching acquisition?
Will it come via free agency or trade?
Is the top of the rotation strong enough without a pitcher like Valdez, Zac Gallen, or another established ace?
How will all of these arms fit into a five-man rotation?

The answers are coming—and whatever path the Orioles choose, Justin Verlander remains a fascinating, if polarizing, part of the conversation.