The Buffalo Bills sit at 9-2 on the 2024 season, one win away from clinching their fifth straight AFC East title. They don’t get a divisional opponent in Week 13, but a struggling San Francisco 49ers team still possesses plenty of firepower for Buffalo to be concerned with as it starts December. Here are five keys to victory for the Bills as they welcome the 49ers into Orchard Park, NY, for Sunday Night Football.
Score Touchdowns
This sounds like an obvious key to victory, but it makes more sense when you look at the numbers. Heading into Week 13, the 49ers’ defense is 29th in the league at allowing opponents to convert red zone trips into touchdowns at 67.57%. The Bills’ offense is sixth in the league at converting their red zone trips into touchdowns at 63.83%. If both of those trends keep up on Sunday, Buffalo should see its chances of winning increase significantly.
Scramble Purdy
This stat may find you as surprised as it did me, but Brock Purdy has the second most scrambles (non-designed quarterback runs) of any player in the NFL this season, only behind Jayden Daniels, per Pro Football Focus. Purdy has taken off 37 times this year despite missing a pair of games. For context, they have Josh Allen charted as scrambling 29 times, tied for ninth in the league. Keeping Purdy in the pocket and under systematic pressure will help stifle the 49ers offense.
This one goes back to scoring touchdowns. The Bills are currently fourth in the league in rushing touchdowns per game at 1.6. Meanwhile, the 49ers are 29th in the league at rushing touchdowns allowed at 1.5 per game. It would be beneficial to the Bills for Josh Allen, James Cook, and company to have those worlds collide a few times on Sunday night.
Third-and-Long
The 49ers are top 10 in the NFL at converting on third-and-nine, third-and-10, and third-and-11-15, per NFL Stats and Info. The Bills’ defense gets a bad wrap from fans for being poor on third-and-long, but the numbers speak a bit differently. Overall, on third-and-nine-plus, they have allowed 10 first downs on 45 plays. To peel that back a bit further, they rank 14th in allowing first downs on third-and-10, and first in the league on third-and-11-plus. Just make sure it is third-and-11 and not third-and-10. Simple, right?
Wins aren’t a quarterback stat, but they are (in most cases) a coaching staff stat. Coming out of their bye, the Bills are 7-0 under head coach Sean McDermott. I don’t know what he does with the extra time off that works so well, but just keep doing it.
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