With Max Fried and Charlie Morton on the free agent market, the Atlanta Braves are on the search for another arm. But while the Braves are constantly after quality, it seems as though the top names are not an option.
Alex Anthopoulos has already made it clear with his aggressive cost-cutting measures, that he intends to keep costs low, ducking under the third luxury tax bracket. This means Max Fried is most likely gone. However, this doesn’t mean the Braves won’t come away with a top-of-the-line starter.
One name the Braves have shown interest in is none other than postseason hero Walker Buehler.
Buehler has been frequently injured and has performed poorly in the few innings he pitched throughout his injury-laden rough patch. However, throughout the 2024 postseason, Buehler has shown he can still throw with the best of them. Given the injuries and the struggles, Buehler will come at a steep discount to his talent.
A few teams have picked up on this and have joined the pursuit. Among the most serious contenders are the New York Yankees. With competition like the Yanks, it is possible the Braves don’t nab Buehler. Should the Braves miss out on Buehler, where can they turn? Are there any other cheap arms on the free agent market with ace potential? Let’s explore a few decent possibilities.
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Alex Anthopoulos got away with grand theft pitcher twice last offseason when he traded for Chris Sale and signed Reynaldo Lopez. After years of injury and underperformance, Sale came back and won a rare triple crown while the failed starter in Lopez flashed Cy Young potential as well. This offseason, Anthopoulos has another opportunity.
John Means hasn’t been very relevant in recent years. Consistent injuries have held him to just 52.1 innings over the last three years. In his seven years with the Baltimore Orioles, Means has only eclipsed 44 innings twice, throwing over 145 innings in both seasons. In 2019, he came second in the Rookie of the Year voting with a 3.60 ERA. In 2021, he fared almost as well throwing to a 3.62 ERA.
Betting on Means is quite the gamble should they come to rely on him over the long run, but he has flashed serious potential when on the mound. And given the fact that he will come at a rock-bottom price in conjunction with the secondary fact that the Braves have plenty of rotational depth, taking a chance on Means shouldn’t be much of an icy plunge. The Braves might just find a Fried-like replacement for a fraction of the cost.
2. LHP Sean Manaea
Sean Manaea currently owns a career ERA of 4.00. He might not sound like that frontline ace on a budget type player, but in 2024, everything changed. Manaea changed his delivery to mimic Chris Sale to start the second half. Among other big changes, he started throwing his sinker as his primary pitch replacing the four-seamer he featured in years past and he altered the grip on his changeup. The result: Manaea finished the season with a 3.47 ERA and 184 strike outs through 181.2 innings. However, Steven Teal of House That Hank Built raised some serious questions when discussing the possibility of Manaea landing with the Braves.
“His ERA was practically the same in the first and second half but there was a noticeable drop in walks allowed,” Teal wrote. “He walked 40 batters in the first half compared to just 23 in the second half… Manaea has always shown his potential to be an All-Star caliber pitcher with nasty stuff. However, he has struggled with command. Did this slight tweak to his arm angle make that much of a difference? And if so, why did it take so long to realize that? Those are questions the Braves front office will need to ask themselves about Sean Manaea. Did this change in delivery make him a better pitcher or was it all a fluke? They need to be confident in their answers as they would lose a draft pick if they signed him.”
To Teal’s point, Manaea throws nasty stuff. His sinker happens to be an elite pitch. But his recent success is somewhat questionable. Nonetheless, he won’t be expensive and for the price, the Braves might land another bargain.
That brings us to a Cy Young award winner that could provide an ace-type performance on a budget. Shane Bieber won a triple crown 2020. Since then, injuries have effectively hampered him. The only full season Bieber pitched after 2020 was in 2022. That season, he pitched to 2.88 ERA through 200 innings, not quite the 1.63 he won the Cy Young with, but still extremely good.
“Not Justin” threw to a 3.80 ERA in 128 innings before falling injured in 2023. Bieber came back this past season with high expectations throwing 12 scoreless innings in two starts, but again, fell victim to the injury bug. He underwent elbow surgery shortly after that second start.
Given his injury history and lack of a track record, Bieber won’t be signed to the monster deal many considered him worth in 2020. And if there’s one thing we know, it’s that the Braves love taking broken pitchers and making them aces. After seeing his two starts this season, it is clear the talent is still there. Taking a chance on Bieber might be a worthwhile bet for the Braves.
