Strong Peripherals and Arsenal Growth Signal a Breakout Opportunity for Zebby Matthews in Minnesota

Strong underlying metrics, tangible pitch development, and clear paths for adjustment suggest that Zebby Matthews’ story with the Minnesota Twins is far from finished. While his 2025 rookie season fell short of expectations on the surface, a deeper look reveals a pitcher with the tools, command, and opportunity to deliver a much stronger second act in 2026.

A Disappointing Rookie Year—At First Glance

Zebby Matthews entered the 2025 season carrying significant momentum. After a breakout year in the minor leagues, expectations were high that he could translate that success to the major league level. Instead, the results were uneven. Matthews finished his rookie campaign with a 5.56 ERA across just under 80 innings, numbers that quickly overshadowed the promise that followed him up the organizational ladder.

The contact quality was especially concerning. Opposing hitters posted a 38.8% hard-hit rate, and too many balls left the bat with loft, putting pressure on a pitcher who lacked margin for error. Fly balls paired with hard contact often lead to crooked numbers, and Matthews was no exception. Even advanced metrics like expected ERA and expected wOBA failed to fully excuse the damage, reinforcing that hitters were squaring him up more often than anticipated.

For many young pitchers, a season like that can define perception. But stopping at ERA alone misses the broader context of Matthews’ development.

Why the Twins Are Likely to Stay Patient

Despite the rough surface numbers, the Minnesota Twins have every reason to continue giving Matthews opportunities. Entering 2026, he projects as a candidate for the back end of the rotation, competing with arms such as David Festa, Taj Bradley, Mick Abel, and Simeon Woods Richardson. The picture could shift quickly, especially if the Twins explore midseason trades involving established starters.

Depth charts are fluid, and availability matters. Matthews is young, healthy, and already stretched out as a starter. Simply staying ready could allow him to climb the rotation ladder as the season progresses. For a team balancing payroll flexibility and long-term development, that matters.

Opportunity alone does not guarantee success—but when paired with strong peripherals, it becomes compelling.

The Underlying Metrics Tell a Different Story

Beneath the disappointing ERA lies a much more encouraging statistical profile. Matthews posted a 3.79 FIP, a full run and a half lower than his ERA, suggesting that his outcomes were worse than his process. Even more notable was his 18.1% strikeout-minus-walk rate (K-BB%), well above league average and a key indicator of sustainable pitching success.

For young starters, that combination—strong K-BB% and respectable FIP—often signals future growth rather than stagnation. It suggests a pitcher who can miss bats, limit free passes, and control counts, even if the batted-ball luck has not yet cooperated.

In other words, Matthews was already doing many of the hardest things right.

Fastball Velocity Gains Without Sacrificing Shape

One of the most encouraging developments from Matthews’ rookie season was tangible growth in his raw stuff. His four-seam fastball velocity jumped from 95.2 mph to 96.3 mph, a meaningful increase at the major league level. Importantly, that added velocity did not come at the expense of movement or shape.

The issue was not the fastball itself—it was how Matthews used it. He lived in the heart of the strike zone far too often, especially early in counts. Major league hitters punish mistakes over the middle, regardless of velocity. A more selective approach—working the edges and elevating with intent rather than habit—could dramatically reduce damage.

Late-count fastball usage is a particularly clear adjustment point. Matthews often leaned on the heater when finishing hitters, even when his secondary pitches offered better profiles for whiffs or weak contact.

The Slider: A Legitimate Bat-Missing Weapon

If Matthews has a calling card, it is his slider. Thrown harder at 88 mph with tighter, sharper action, the pitch emerged as a legitimate swing-and-miss weapon in 2025. Against right-handed hitters, the slider generated a 39.6% whiff rate, consistently inducing chases when buried on the outer edge.

Even more impressive was the quality of contact allowed. Hitters managed just a 0.260 xwOBACON against the slider, a strong indicator that when contact occurred, it was rarely damaging. When Matthews executed the pitch down and away, right-handed hitters were largely helpless.

The vulnerability appeared when the slider backed up into the strike zone or flattened out, particularly against left-handed hitters. That is not a flaw in the pitch itself—it is a command and sequencing issue, one that can be refined with experience.

A Curious Split Against Left-Handed Hitters

Matthews’ platoon splits offer one of the most intriguing elements of his profile. His K-BB% barely changed by handedness, yet the run prevention gap was significant. He posted a 2.73 FIP against right-handed hitters compared to a 4.97 FIP against lefties.

That disparity points less to an inability to compete and more to home run susceptibility. Left-handed hitters punished mistakes that caught too much of the plate, especially fastballs and sliders that drifted arm-side.

Interestingly, Matthews already has an answer for lefties—he just has not used it enough.

The Underutilized Changeup

Quietly, Matthews’ changeup was one of his most effective pitches against left-handed hitters. He located it well on the outer third, avoided the heart of the zone, and consistently limited hard contact. Compared to his other offerings, the changeup produced softer batted balls and disrupted timing effectively.

Yet despite its success, Matthews rarely trusted the pitch in two-strike counts. He recorded just one strikeout with the changeup all season, an astonishingly low total for a pitch that profiles as his best offspeed weapon against lefties.

This appears to be less about capability and more about confidence. Young pitchers often default to fastballs when facing big-league pressure, especially when still learning how hitters react at the highest level.

Pitch Usage: The Simplest Path to Improvement

The good news for Matthews is that his clearest areas for growth do not require mechanical overhauls or risky velocity chases. They are strategic adjustments.

• Reducing fastball usage in finishing counts

• Leaning more heavily on the slider as a put-away pitch

• Trusting the changeup against left-handed hitters, particularly when ahead

Pitch usage is one of the easiest levers for pitchers and coaching staffs to pull. With a deeper, more balanced arsenal, Matthews can better align his approach with his strengths.

A Mid-Rotation Profile Still Very Much Intact

When viewed through a broader lens, Matthews still checks nearly every box teams look for in a mid-rotation starter. He has:

• Prototypical size and durability

• Above-average velocity

• Multiple usable pitches

• Command that already grades above average

The foundation is there. The challenge lies in refining sequencing, pitch selection, and execution within the strike zone.

Why 2026 Feels Like Opportunity, Not a Crossroads

For all the disappointment of 2025, Matthews’ outlook entering 2026 is surprisingly optimistic. The gap between his peripherals and results suggests positive regression, not decline. With even modest adjustments to his pitch usage and approach, his ERA should move closer to the pitcher his underlying numbers already describe.

Rather than a make-or-break moment, 2026 feels like a chance for Matthews to reintroduce himself—this time with a clearer understanding of how his arsenal plays at the major league level.

His rookie season may not have met expectations, but the ingredients for a breakout remain firmly in place. For the Twins, patience could pay off. For Matthews, the second act may be far better than the first.