Baltimore Orioles Predicted to Sign Lucas Giolito: A Calculated Free-Agent Gamble That Could Pay Off in 2026

Despite already making several impactful roster upgrades this offseason, the Baltimore Orioles appear far from finished. Under the guidance of general manager Mike Elias, the Orioles’ front office continues to aggressively pursue ways to strengthen a team that is firmly entrenched in the American League playoff picture. One priority remains clear: adding a frontline starting pitcher to anchor the rotation heading into the 2026 MLB season.

While Baltimore has taken meaningful steps to bolster its roster depth, the absence of a true ace continues to loom large. Elias and his staff understand that championship-caliber teams are built on reliable starting pitching, particularly in the highly competitive AL East. As a result, the Orioles have been consistently linked to several high-profile arms still available in free agency.

The Orioles’ Pursuit of Elite Starting Pitching

Among the most prominent names associated with Baltimore this offseason are Framber Valdez, Ranger Suárez, and Zac Gallen. All three pitchers possess top-of-the-rotation credentials and have been rumored to be on the Orioles’ radar at various points. On paper, signing one of these pitchers would immediately elevate Baltimore’s World Series aspirations.

However, the reality of the free-agent market presents significant challenges. These pitchers are not only highly sought after but also expected to command massive long-term contracts. With multiple contenders competing for their services, the Orioles face intense bidding wars that could push prices beyond what the organization is willing—or able—to pay.

As a result, there is a very real possibility that Baltimore could strike out on all three elite arms. If that happens, the Orioles will need to pivot quickly and creatively to ensure their rotation is adequately reinforced before Opening Day 2026.

Exploring Alternatives: Trades and Value Free Agents

One route Baltimore has explored is the trade market. The Orioles’ reported interest in Edward Cabrera prior to his eventual trade to the Chicago Cubs demonstrates that the front office is actively monitoring opportunities to acquire pitching via trade. However, dealing for controllable arms often requires sacrificing top prospects, something Elias has historically been cautious about.

That brings us to another, increasingly realistic option: signing a lower-tier free agent starter. While these pitchers often carry more risk than elite aces, they also come with more manageable price tags and, in some cases, intriguing upside.

For a team like Baltimore—rich in young talent but still mindful of long-term payroll flexibility—this strategy aligns perfectly with Elias’s data-driven, value-focused approach.

And one pitcher who fits this mold exceptionally well is Lucas Giolito.

Orioles Predicted to Sign Lucas Giolito in Free Agency

According to Sports Illustrated staff writers Will Laws and Nick Selbe, the Orioles are a leading candidate to sign Giolito. In a January 7 prediction piece, both writers forecasted that Baltimore would take a chance on the veteran right-hander as a way to stabilize the middle of its rotation.

Giolito’s career has been nothing short of turbulent in recent seasons, marked by injuries, inconsistent performance, and a string of unfortunate circumstances. As Sports Illustrated noted, his journey over the past few years reads like a case study in baseball misfortune.

After being traded from the Chicago White Sox to the Los Angeles Angels at the 2023 trade deadline—an ill-fated attempt by the Angels to contend—Giolito struggled mightily, posting a 6.89 ERA in six starts. He was subsequently placed on waivers and claimed by the Cleveland Guardians, where his struggles continued.

Things went from bad to worse when Giolito signed with the Boston Red Sox during the following offseason, only to undergo elbow surgery before ever throwing a pitch for the team. At that point, many around the league questioned whether Giolito’s best days were behind him.

Giolito’s 2025 Bounce-Back Season

Fortunately for Giolito—and potential suitors like the Orioles—the 2025 season provided a much-needed rebound. Pitching a full campaign, Giolito made 26 starts and finished with a respectable 3.41 ERA. While his strikeout rate declined noticeably, his overall effectiveness improved, suggesting that he had learned how to pitch more efficiently and rely less on pure velocity.

As Laws and Selbe described it, Giolito now profiles as a mid-rotation starter with considerable risk but tangible upside. For a team like Baltimore, that risk-reward balance may be well worth exploring.

Why Lucas Giolito Makes Sense for the Orioles

From an analytical standpoint, Giolito checks several boxes for the Orioles:

1. Proven AL East Experience

Giolito’s successful stint in Boston in 2025 demonstrated that he can compete against some of baseball’s toughest lineups. Pitching in the AL East is notoriously difficult, and Giolito has shown he can handle the pressure.

2. Upside at a Lower Cost

Unlike Valdez, Suárez, or Gallen, Giolito is unlikely to command a massive long-term deal. This allows Baltimore to preserve financial flexibility while still adding a pitcher with frontline potential if everything clicks.

3. Former Top Prospect Pedigree

Once considered one of the best pitching prospects in baseball, Giolito’s raw talent has never been in question. Injuries have slowed him down, but his underlying ability remains intriguing.

4. Fits Mike Elias’s Philosophy

Elias has built his reputation on identifying undervalued assets and maximizing their potential through analytics and player development. Giolito represents exactly the type of calculated gamble that could yield substantial dividends.

A High-Risk, High-Reward Signing

There is no denying that signing Lucas Giolito would come with risk. His injury history and recent inconsistency cannot be ignored. However, the Orioles are uniquely positioned to absorb that risk thanks to their depth, young talent, and competitive window.

If Giolito stays healthy and continues the progress he showed in 2025, he could provide stability to Baltimore’s rotation while offering upside that far exceeds his contract value. In a best-case scenario, he could even outperform expectations and function as a de facto frontline starter.

A Move That Could Define the 2026 Season

By this time next year, a Giolito signing could be viewed as one of Mike Elias’s most savvy decisions. While it may not generate the same headlines as landing a superstar ace, it would exemplify the Orioles’ commitment to smart roster construction and sustainable success.

In a free-agent market defined by fierce competition and escalating prices, sometimes the best moves are the ones that fly under the radar. For the Baltimore Orioles, Lucas Giolito may be that move—a calculated bet that could help push the franchise one step closer to championship contention in 2026.