CHICAGO — When Jed Hoyer and the Chicago Cubs believed they had pulled off a major coup by prying Edward Cabrera away from the New York Yankees, the mood around the North Side briefly shifted toward optimism and ambition.

Yet, as the dust settles on one of the most aggressive trades of the Cubs’ recent offseason, that sense of celebration may prove short-lived, replaced instead by cautious scrutiny and mounting expectations.

The Cubs officially acquired Edward Cabrera from the Miami Marlins on Wednesday, sending a package of three highly regarded prospects south in exchange for the right-hander, according to reports from The Athletic.

The cost was significant, even by modern trade standards.

Chicago parted ways with outfielder Owen Caissie, along with infield prospects Cristian Hernandez and Edgardo De Leon, a trio that represented both upside and long-term organizational depth.

From the Cubs’ perspective, the move addressed a glaring need: high-ceiling starting pitching capable of changing the complexion of a postseason series.

From the outside, however, the deal immediately raised a familiar concern surrounding Cabrera — durability.

Despite what many around the league viewed as a breakout campaign in 2025, Cabrera’s season was once again interrupted by physical setbacks that continue to define his professional narrative.

In 26 appearances last year, Cabrera was forced to manage not one, but two injury scares that reignited questions about his long-term reliability as a frontline starter.

The first issue surfaced in July, when Cabrera experienced posterior right elbow discomfort during a start against the Orioles.

At the time, the injury appeared manageable, and Cabrera was able to return later that same month, offering the Marlins a brief sense of relief.

That optimism did not last.

Later in the season, during a game against the Mets, Cabrera felt tightness in his arm, a moment that quickly escalated into a more concerning diagnosis.

He was placed on the injured list for fifteen days with a right elbow sprain, an ailment that reinforced the perception of him as a high-risk, high-reward arm.

For a Cubs organization that surrendered three premium prospects, that risk profile is impossible to ignore.

Health, however, is not the only variable that will determine whether this trade ultimately succeeds.

Cabrera’s command on the mound remains an area of active concern and development.

While his raw velocity is undeniable, refinement remains a work in progress, particularly when it comes to his four-seam fastball and sinker.

Cabrera routinely touches 96 to 98 miles per hour with his four-seamer, a trait that should, in theory, overwhelm hitters.

In practice, that pitch has often played flatter than expected.

Major league batters have shown an ability to square it up, even when behind in the count, exposing a lack of late movement and command.

One notable example came in August, when Mets infielder Mark Vientos punished a Cabrera fastball for a three-run home run, a moment that underscored the fine line between dominance and damage in Cabrera’s arsenal.

His sinker, while marginally more effective, still lacks the consistency needed to anchor him as a true ace without additional adjustments.

For the Cubs’ pitching development staff, these are not red flags so much as areas of opportunity.

Chicago believes that mechanical tweaks, improved sequencing, and a clearer understanding of how to deploy Cabrera’s velocity can unlock another level in his performance.

Even with these concerns, there is little debate about Cabrera’s upside.

At his best, he profiles as a legitimate frontline starter, the kind of pitcher capable of neutralizing elite lineups and shortening postseason series.

That potential is why the Cubs were willing to pay such a steep price.

If Cabrera can improve his fastball shape and tighten his command, he could slide seamlessly into a rotation that already includes Shota Imanaga, Jameson Taillon, Matthew Boyd, Cade Horton, and eventually Justin Steele, once Steele returns from injury in April.

Within that group, Cabrera’s strikeout ability stands out.

Despite his injury interruptions in 2025, he still managed to strike out 150 batters while posting a 3.53 ERA in just 26 games, production that hints at what a fully healthy season might look like.

If those numbers scale over a larger workload, Cabrera could quickly establish himself as Chicago’s number two starter, or even higher depending on matchups and health.

Yet, for all the optimism in Chicago, the trade also invites scrutiny from Miami’s perspective.

The Marlins did not move Cabrera lightly.

President of Baseball Operations Peter Bendix addressed the return package candidly, emphasizing both immediate and long-term value.

“When we were able to get a package of these three players that we think can help us this year and beyond, that ended up being what got us over the line,” Bendix said.

At the center of that return is Caissie, a 23-year-old power hitter whose bat has long intrigued evaluators across the league.

Caissie made his major league debut in August and announced himself quickly by launching his first big-league home run, a moment that hinted at his offensive ceiling.

Defensively, Caissie offers versatility, capable of handling multiple outfield positions, a trait that could make him an everyday option for Miami as soon as 2026.

There are, however, developmental hurdles still ahead.

As a left-handed hitter, Caissie has shown vulnerability against left-handed pitching, an area the Marlins will prioritize as he transitions into a larger role.

Hernandez represents a different kind of upside.

Still awaiting his major league debut, Hernandez is widely regarded as one of the most gifted young hitters in the minors, boasting elite bat speed and physical projection.

His name has drawn comparisons to stars like Alex Rodriguez and Manny Machado, lofty benchmarks that speak to his raw tools rather than guaranteed outcomes.

Signed as one of the crown jewels of the 2020–2021 international class for $3 million, Hernandez showcased his athleticism this season by stealing 52 bases in High-A, while posting a .694 OPS across 115 games.

His defensive future remains flexible, with potential paths at second base, third base, or even shortstop, thanks to his quickness and arm strength.

De Leon, the youngest piece of the deal, brings yet another profile.

At just 18 years old, he flashed intriguing power in the Arizona Complex League, hitting five home runs and driving in 15 runs across 43 games in 2025.

Known for his bat speed and exit velocity, De Leon could eventually project as a corner bat, potentially at first base or right field, depending on how his frame and skill set evolve.

For the Marlins, the trade represents a calculated pivot toward depth, flexibility, and long-term upside.

For the Cubs, it represents a bold bet.

Hoyer landed his target, but that acquisition came with an unmistakable sense of pressure.

If Cabrera struggles to stay healthy, or if his command issues persist against National League hitters, the narrative around this trade could shift quickly.

Conversely, if Chicago’s coaching staff can unlock even incremental improvements, the move could be remembered as the moment the Cubs reshaped their rotation into a true postseason weapon.

As spring approaches, one thing is clear.

The margin for error is thin.

The Cubs have placed a substantial wager on talent, development, and timing, and the outcome of that bet may define not only their 2026 season, but the trajectory of the franchise’s competitive window moving forward.