Kansas City Chiefs Face Tougher Schedule Than Expected in 2026, Despite Having a Third-Place Finish in 2025

The Kansas City Chiefs were hoping for a favorable benefit after their disappointing 6-11 finish in the 2025 season, especially with the third-place schedule that often comes with such a result. Historically, the third-place schedule has been seen as a significant advantage, giving teams the opportunity to face weaker opponents in the following season. But as the Chiefs are quickly finding out, things don’t always turn out as expected, especially when the matchups are determined by a variety of factors.

While the Chiefs did secure the ninth overall pick in April’s NFL Draft, the schedule they’ll face in 2026 may be much more difficult than anticipated. Despite finishing third in the AFC West, the Chiefs now find themselves with one of the hardest schedules in the NFL for the upcoming season.

A Disastrous 2025 Season for the Chiefs: How They Went from First to Worst

Last year, the Chiefs were riding high after finishing the 2024 season with a remarkable 15-2 record, capturing the AFC’s No. 1 seed. Their performance set a new franchise record, and expectations were sky-high for 2025. However, in an unexpected twist, the Chiefs ended the season with a 6-11 record and were unable to secure a playoff spot.

The Chiefs’ inability to capitalize on the momentum of their successful 2024 season has been attributed to several factors. A combination of key injuries, inconsistent play, and defensive struggles plagued the team throughout the year. The loss of players like Patrick Mahomes to injury during key stretches, as well as a defense that couldn’t stop opposing offenses, compounded the Chiefs’ woes.

Despite their disappointing season, Kansas City was still supposed to benefit from a third-place schedule in 2026. This would have meant facing weaker competition compared to other teams in the division, especially given their low finish. However, reality has proven different.

How the Chiefs Ended Up with One of the Toughest Schedules in 2026

The Chiefs’ 6-11 finish in 2025, combined with their third-place finish in the AFC West, set the stage for what many thought would be a relatively easy schedule in 2026. But it turns out that the third-place schedule is not always the blessing it’s made out to be.

In the 2026 season, Kansas City will face what is now considered one of the fifth-hardest schedules in the NFL, facing nine playoff teams from the 2025 season. This is a significant challenge for the Chiefs, especially considering their struggles from the previous year. Their schedule will feature tough matchups against perennial contenders and teams that have established themselves as playoff-caliber in recent seasons.

The Chiefs will play against several teams that are expected to be among the best in the NFL, including the Miami Dolphins, Buffalo Bills, and San Francisco 49ers. These teams not only had strong records in 2025 but are also considered to be Super Bowl contenders in the 2026 season. In addition to these games, Kansas City will also face the AFC East, a division that sent two teams to the playoffs in 2025, and the NFC West, a division that had three teams make the postseason.

What This Means for the Chiefs: The Impact of the Strength of Schedule

This tough schedule means that the Chiefs will have little room for error as they attempt to rebound from their disastrous 2025 campaign. The combination of high-caliber opponents and a demanding schedule could make it even harder for the Chiefs to make a return to the playoffs in 2026. Kansas City will need to be at the top of its game to secure wins, especially as they try to rebuild their defense and find consistency across the roster.

Interestingly, this situation shows how the NFL’s scheduling system works, and how it can sometimes lead to results that defy expectations. Just three of a team’s 17 games are matchups against opponents who finished in the same place within their division the previous year. This means that a significant 82% of each team’s schedule is determined by other factors, such as inter-conference play, division rotations, and the placement of teams from other conferences.

How the Schedule is Structured: Why the Chiefs Face a Tough Road in 2026

While the Chiefs may have expected an easier path due to their third-place finish, the reality of the NFL’s scheduling process has led to a much harder schedule. Each year, six of the 14 non-division games are fixed, based on where the team falls in their division standings. The remaining eight games come from matchups against the AFC and NFC divisions that rotate every year.

In 2026, the Chiefs’ schedule includes games against the AFC East and the NFC West, both of which feature playoff-caliber teams. In fact, the AFC East produced two playoff teams in 2025, and the NFC West had three teams that made the postseason. This means that the Chiefs will have to contend with a number of teams that are already well-established as playoff contenders, making their road to success that much more challenging.

Breaking Down the 2026 Opponent Difficulty Rankings

To provide further insight into the Chiefs’ 2026 schedule, we can look at the opponent difficulty rankings. As shown in the rankings, the Chiefs are ranked fifth in terms of schedule difficulty, with a record of 155-134. This is not an ideal position for a team trying to rebound from a losing season, as it means the Chiefs will face some of the toughest competition in the NFL.

In contrast, other teams like the Chicago Bears, who are ranked No. 1 in opponent difficulty, will also face a daunting slate of games, while teams like the Cleveland Browns will face an easier path. The rankings also show that the Chiefs’ strength of schedule is only slightly more difficult than that of the Dolphins, Packers, and Cardinals, who all face similar challenges. However, the differences in opponent records are not massive, and the competition for playoff spots will remain fierce across the board.

The Chiefs’ Schedule: A Tough Test for the Team’s Future

So, what does this all mean for the Chiefs moving forward? Well, the reality is that the team is going to have to work harder than ever to succeed in 2026. Despite the supposed advantage of a third-place schedule, the Chiefs’ opponents in 2026 are not going to make things easy. The team will need to rely on its talented roster—especially players like Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, and the dynamic Chris Jones—to elevate their play and secure victories.

In the end, the Chiefs’ difficult 2026 schedule is a reminder that success in the NFL is not solely determined by where you finish in the standings. A team’s strength of schedule plays a huge role in shaping its season, and for the Chiefs, that will mean facing a much tougher road to redemption. Whether they can overcome these challenges and make a return to the playoffs next season will depend on their ability to improve across the board—on both sides of the ball.