What’s Next for Nolan Arenado? Cardinals Face Familiar Dilemma with Star Third Baseman

The St. Louis Cardinals are back in a familiar spot this winter-trying to figure out what to do with Nolan Arenado. For the second straight offseason, the franchise is exploring trade options for its cornerstone third baseman, and the reasons are as much about timing as they are about talent.

Arenado, a future Hall of Famer and one of the premier defensive third basemen of his generation, still has two years remaining on his contract. But the Cardinals aren’t expecting to be serious contenders during that window, and Arenado, now 35, isn’t interested in riding out the twilight of his prime on a team in transition. It’s a crossroads that makes a trade feel like the logical next step-for both sides.

Arenado’s No-Trade Clause Still Looms Large

Last winter, St. Louis thought it had a deal in place.

The Cardinals reportedly reached an agreement to send Arenado to the Houston Astros, one of the five teams he had approved as a potential destination. But Arenado used his no-trade clause to veto the move, citing concerns about Houston’s competitive direction-particularly after the Astros dealt outfielder Kyle Tucker in the days leading up to the proposed trade.

Since then, the landscape hasn’t changed much. While Arenado has reportedly broadened his list of acceptable landing spots this offseason, the Cardinals still haven’t found a deal that checks all the boxes. With spring training just over a month away-and Arenado expected to miss part of it while suiting up for Puerto Rico in the World Baseball Classic-the clock is ticking.

“I don’t feel any differently than I did early in the offseason,” said Cardinals president of baseball operations Chaim Bloom in a recent radio interview. “Both that [a trade] makes sense and also that we will find it at some point.”

Releasing Arenado? Not Happening

One option that’s not on the table: cutting ties outright. Bloom has firmly shut down any talk of releasing Arenado and eating the roughly $37 million still owed on his deal.

Financially, that move would be a gut punch. The Cardinals have already committed $28 million in cash to the Boston Red Sox as part of two separate trades involving Willson Contreras and Sonny Gray.

That money was tied directly to the return of prospects-something you don’t get when you release a player outright.

Swallowing over $60 million in dead money for players no longer on the roster would be a massive leap for Cardinals ownership, and by all indications, that’s not a leap they’re willing to take.

No Clubhouse Drama, No Roster Logjam-Yet

It’s important to note: this isn’t a case of a player wearing out his welcome. Arenado has handled the team’s recent struggles with professionalism, often taking public accountability for the downturn.

That’s a far cry from his rocky exit from Colorado five years ago. There’s no visible tension in the clubhouse, and no immediate roster crunch forcing the Cardinals’ hand.

But there is a question of opportunity cost.

With Arenado entrenched at third base, the Cardinals have to get creative with their infield mix. JJ Wetherholt, one of the club’s top prospects, could be ready to take over at second base as early as Opening Day.

That could push Nolan Gorman out of regular at-bats-a player who, despite his power potential, has struck out in roughly a third of his 1,200+ plate appearances over the last three seasons. Some in the organization believe he’s had ample time to prove himself.

Even if Brendan Donovan isn’t traded in the coming weeks (though signs still point in that direction), he offers positional flexibility. With Lars Nootbaar recovering from heel surgery, Donovan could shift to left field or even share time at third in a platoon role with Arenado.

The Decline Is Real-But Is It Reversible?

Here’s the crux of the issue: Arenado is still good. But he’s not Arenado good anymore.

Last season marked the third-worst of his career by OPS+, with only his rookie campaign and the pandemic-shortened 2020 season ranking lower. Even defensively-where he’s long been elite-he looked more solid than spectacular. In 107 games, he posted just 1.3 wins above replacement, a slight dip from the 1.5 WAR he managed in just 48 games during the 2020 season.

Offensively, the trendline is concerning. After finishing third in MVP voting in 2022, Arenado’s OPS has dropped each year-.774 in 2023, .719 in 2024, and .666 in 2025.

He battled through arm injuries last season and admitted later that he may have pushed through more than he should’ve. Still, there were flickers of hope.

In September, he slugged two home runs and posted a .713 OPS in 42 plate appearances, a noticeable rebound after a brutal .440 mark in July.

The question is whether that late-season bounce was a sign of recovery-or just a blip.

What’s the Market Look Like?

From a front office perspective, Arenado’s trade value is a tough puzzle. He’s a 35-year-old corner infielder with declining power, a recent injury history, and a significant salary. Even with the Cardinals reportedly willing to eat $15 million of the remaining money, that’s still a hefty commitment for any team to take on.

And with Alex Bregman still lingering on the free-agent market for a second straight winter, there’s a sense of déjà vu here. Teams have options, and the urgency just isn’t there.

When Bloom took over in Boston, one of his first major tasks was dealing Mookie Betts-a move that was widely criticized, even though everyone involved knew it was coming. Now, he’s facing a similar situation in St.

Louis. The difference?

This time, the consensus is that parting ways with the superstar is the right call. The challenge is finding a deal that actually makes it happen.

Until then, the Cardinals and Arenado remain in limbo-two sides ready to move on, but still waiting for the right door to open.