Minnesota Twins 2026 Outlook: What Steamer Projections Reveal About Key Players and Roster Strength
The Minnesota Twins enter the 2026 season with a curious blend of skepticism and quiet optimism surrounding them. After several years in which projection systems expected far more than what actually materialized on the field, many fans and analysts have grown cautious when presented with optimistic forecasts. Still, advanced models like Steamer continue to see reasons for hope, particularly at the individual player level.
Steamer is among the most widely used projection systems in baseball analytics. It blends recent performance, aging curves, regression indicators, batted-ball data, and historical comparables to estimate future outcomes. While no projection system is perfect, Steamer provides a useful framework for understanding where a roster may be stronger—or weaker—than public perception suggests.
Looking ahead to the 2026 season, Steamer offers a mixed but fascinating picture of the Twins. Some young players are projected to regress from breakout performances, veterans face uncertain roles, and the bullpen appears to be a glaring weakness. At the same time, the overall roster still projects as more competitive than many casual observers might assume.
Let’s break down Steamer’s most notable predictions for the Twins’ 2026 roster and what they could mean for the team’s chances.
Luke Keaschall: Offensive Regression Looms After Breakout 2025
Few players provided as much optimism for the Twins in 2025 as Luke Keaschall. In just 207 plate appearances, Keaschall slashed an impressive .302/.382/.445, producing offense 34% better than league average. For a team that struggled to generate consistent offense, his emergence was a welcome surprise.
However, Steamer remains skeptical that Keaschall can sustain that level of production over a full season.
Steamer’s 2026 Projection for Keaschall:
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Batting Average: .267
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On-Base Percentage: .350
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Slugging Percentage: .400
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WAR: 2.6
These numbers still represent a solid everyday player, but they are a notable step back from his 2025 performance. According to Steamer, Keaschall’s regression is driven primarily by an expected decline in batted-ball luck and power output.
This skepticism isn’t unfounded. Keaschall’s 2025 sample size was relatively small, and some of his success was buoyed by favorable BABIP results. Projection systems tend to be conservative in these situations, especially when players lack a long track record of elite production.
Interestingly, Steamer still assigns Keaschall strong overall value due largely to above-average defensive contributions, which help prop up his WAR total. That said, his defensive value remains somewhat uncertain if he continues to play second base, where positional value is more limited.
What This Means for the Twins
Minnesota will be counting on Keaschall to remain a key offensive contributor in 2026. While Steamer’s projection doesn’t paint him as a star, it still sees him as a valuable, above-average player. If Keaschall can outperform expectations and retain more of his 2025 power, he could once again exceed projections and become a cornerstone of the lineup.
Bailey Ober: Still the No. 3 Starter—But on Shaky Ground
The top of the Twins’ rotation remains relatively clear in Steamer’s eyes. Joe Ryan and Pablo López project as the unquestioned top two starters heading into 2026. After them, however, the picture becomes far murkier.
Bailey Ober technically slots in as the No. 3 starter—but only by the narrowest of margins.
Steamer’s Rotation Projections:
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Bailey Ober: 2.0 WAR
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Taj Bradley: 1.9 WAR
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Zebby Matthews: 1.8 WAR
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Simeon Woods Richardson: 1.8 WAR
Ober’s slight edge appears to be driven by the weight of his strong 2023 and 2024 seasons. His 2025 campaign, which was marred by velocity drops and physical concerns, has clearly dragged down his projection.
What stands out is just how little separation there is between Ober and the rest of the rotation candidates. While he may enter spring training with a rotation spot, his grip on it is far from secure.
A Pivotal Season for Ober
At this stage of his career, 2026 could represent a crossroads for Ober. If the velocity issues persist or his command falters again, the Twins have multiple alternatives ready to step in. Unlike previous seasons, Minnesota is no longer short on replacement-level options.
From a team-building standpoint, this depth is both a blessing and a warning. The Twins need reliable innings, and if Ober looks like his 2025 version rather than his peak form, the organization may need to act quickly.
A Crowded and Uncertain Rotation Picture
Beyond Ober, the Twins’ rotation competition looks like one of the most open battles on the roster. Taj Bradley, Zebby Matthews, Mick Abel, David Festa, and Simeon Woods Richardson all project within a narrow WAR band, making roles highly dependent on spring performance and early-season results.
Steamer’s inability to clearly separate these arms underscores both the opportunity and risk for Minnesota. On one hand, multiple pitchers could emerge as legitimate contributors. On the other, none project as clear difference-makers beyond the top two.
This makes rotation management—and flexibility—critical in 2026.
The Bullpen: A Major Red Flag in Steamer’s Projections
If there is one area where Steamer delivers an unequivocally negative verdict, it is the Twins’ bullpen.
The projections paint a bleak picture of Minnesota’s relief corps as currently constructed.
Key Steamer Bullpen Projections:
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Cole Sands: 0.4 WAR
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Kody Funderburk: 0.4 WAR
What makes this alarming is context. In 2025, the Twins had seven relievers who were more valuable than that projection. While Sands and Justin Topa are expected to return, the overall outlook suggests a significant step backward.
Why the Projections Look So Bad
Steamer only projects players currently on the roster. That means:
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It does not account for potential free-agent signings
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It does not assume role changes for minor-league starters
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It does not project breakout relief seasons for pitchers who haven’t yet debuted in that role
As a result, pitchers like John Klein, Marco Raya, and Conner Prielipp are not expected to provide significant bullpen value—at least not yet.
There is also a realistic chance that one of the rotation candidates (Bradley, Matthews, or Abel) ultimately shifts to the bullpen, where their stuff could play up dramatically.
Still, even accounting for internal improvements, the bullpen projects as the Twins’ biggest obstacle to outperforming expectations.
Can the Twins Beat the Projections?
Historically, projection systems—including Steamer—have often been too optimistic about the Twins. In recent seasons, Minnesota has routinely underperformed model expectations due to injuries, bullpen collapses, and inconsistent offense.
That context makes the 2026 projections especially interesting.
If the Twins want to beat Steamer’s outlook, several things must happen:
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Keaschall must avoid major regression
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At least one mid-rotation arm must break out
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The bullpen must be aggressively rebuilt, likely through external additions
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Young arms must adapt quickly to relief roles
The front office has already acknowledged the need to rebuild the bullpen, which suggests they are aware of this weakness. If Minnesota adds multiple high-leverage relievers and successfully converts internal arms, the team could significantly outperform Steamer’s pessimistic bullpen view.
Final Thoughts: A Better Team Than It Looks—With Clear Risks
Steamer’s 2026 projections suggest the Twins are better than they get credit for, but far from complete. The lineup still has upside. The rotation has depth, if not star power. The bullpen, however, is a glaring vulnerability that could derail the season if not addressed.
As always, projection systems provide a starting point—not a verdict. With roster moves still to come and young players capable of defying expectations, the Twins’ true ceiling may not be fully captured yet.
What’s clear is this: Minnesota’s path to success in 2026 will depend on smart roster refinement, health, and at least a few players outperforming their projections.
If those things break right, the Twins may once again surprise—not just Steamer, but the rest of baseball as well.
