Owen Murphy: Atlanta Braves’ Next Rotation Gem

When Spencer Schwellenbach was drafted by the Atlanta Braves in 2021, he immediately fell victim to the dreaded Tommy John surgery. At the time, there was a question of whether his career trajectory would ever recover. But once Schwellenbach returned to health, he became a quick riser through the Braves’ farm system, eventually delivering a masterful 2024 rookie campaign that stunned fans and analysts alike.

Schwellenbach’s rise is now a blueprint for another young Braves pitcher: Owen Murphy, the team’s 2022 first-round pick. Like Schwellenbach, Murphy has the tools and makeup to become a frontline starter for Atlanta, and the 2026 season could be the year he begins to take the spotlight.

1. Early Promise and Adversity

Owen Murphy’s early professional career was characterized by dominance tempered by the harsh realities of professional baseball injuries. Drafted in 2022, Murphy immediately drew attention for his ability to command multiple pitches with pinpoint accuracy and for his strikeout upside. His first pro season demonstrated a maturity that belied his age, as he thrived in High-A ball, consistently limiting walks while generating swings and misses at an elite level.

By mid-2024, Murphy had positioned himself as one of the Braves’ Top 10 prospects, a rising star in a system already deep with pitching talent. However, as is often the case with young arms, injury intervened. Tommy John surgery cut Murphy’s 2024 season short, and with it, the initial hype surrounding his ascent had to pause. Fans and analysts were left to wonder if Murphy would regain the dominance that had once made him a standout prospect.

2. The 2025 Comeback

Murphy’s 2025 season represented a resilient return to form. Coming off surgery, he rejoined High-A Rome in July, immediately demonstrating that his arm health and mechanics had returned. Over six starts, Murphy dominated opponents, showcasing both command and deception, two traits that often take pitchers several seasons to regain after major elbow surgery.

His stat line in those 27.1 innings speaks for itself:

• ERA: 1.32

• Strikeouts: 29

• Walks: 6

This combination of control, strikeout ability, and efficiency highlighted a pitcher who could do more than just survive—Murphy had the makings of a future impact starter. Despite the relatively small sample size, scouts were buzzing. His high spin-rate fastball, when paired with well-located offspeed pitches, suggested he could thrive at higher levels of competition.

3. Comparisons to Spencer Schwellenbach

Atlanta Braves fans have fond memories of Spencer Schwellenbach, who, despite not being the top pitching prospect at the time, rapidly ascended through the system thanks to elite strike-throwing ability and poise under pressure. Schwellenbach was ranked behind pitchers such as Hurston Waldrep and AJ Smith-Shawver, yet he leapt past them with performance rather than hype.

Owen Murphy mirrors this profile. While MLB Pipeline currently ranks him below hyped pitchers like JR Ritchie, Cam Caminiti, and Didier Fuentes, Murphy possesses a level of polish and control that could allow him to leapfrog those ahead of him in 2026. Much like Schwellenbach, he may not have the highest velocity in the system, but his ability to command multiple pitches within the strike zone and keep hitters off balance makes him a true professional prospect.

4. Key Tools and Pitching Profile

Murphy’s repertoire is built around a high-spin fastball, complemented by a mix of offspeed pitches that create tremendous deception for hitters. His strengths include:

• Command: Murphy consistently hits spots within the strike zone, limiting free passes and forcing hitters to swing at quality pitches.

• Strikeout ability: Even without overwhelming velocity, his pitch movement generates swings and misses, particularly with his curveball and changeup.

• Composure: His approach is methodical and strategic, showing maturity beyond his years, which is crucial for long-term success in the majors.

Analysts have noted that Murphy’s approach is unusually advanced for a pitcher his age, reminiscent of Schwellenbach’s measured, cerebral style. If he continues to refine his command while adjusting to higher levels of competition, he could become a future rotation anchor for Atlanta.

5. 2026: A Crucial Test

The 2026 season will be a defining moment for Murphy. Expected to reach Double-A, he will face a significant step up in competition. Double-A is often regarded as the level where prospects are truly tested: hitters are more disciplined, pitchers must adjust to advanced scouting reports, and the margin for error shrinks dramatically.

For Murphy, this will also be his first full season post–Tommy John surgery, a critical period when pitchers often regain their full velocity, spin, and feel for the strike zone. The combination of health, experience, and opportunity could make 2026 the breakout year that positions him alongside other Braves pitching stars in the major league rotation.

6. The Braves’ Farm System Context

Atlanta’s pitching-focused Top 30 prospects list is a testament to the organization’s dedication to developing elite arms. Within that list, Murphy is part of a deep group of young pitchers, including both high-profile names and overlooked gems. His potential rise mirrors the trajectory of past Braves arms who were not initially the highest-ranked but ultimately became cornerstone pitchers.

The Braves’ system has a history of identifying talent and promoting aggressively, even when a prospect is not ranked number one. With his skill set, work ethic, and post-injury resilience, Murphy could follow in Schwellenbach’s footsteps: climbing quickly through the minors to earn a spot in the major league rotation, potentially as early as 2027.

7. Beyond the Stats

Murphy’s profile extends beyond ERA and strikeouts. Observers of his career note:

• Professional maturity: He approaches each start with a routine that emphasizes preparation, adaptation, and mental toughness.

• Durability mindset: Recovering from Tommy John surgery requires not just physical rehab but long-term arm care and pitch management, traits Murphy has demonstrated in his minor league comeback.

• Upside potential: While his velocity may not blow hitters away, his ability to mix pitches and stay ahead of batters makes him a high-ceiling starter for Atlanta.

Fans and analysts alike see Murphy as the type of pitcher who can become a rotation leader, someone Atlanta can rely on for quality innings in big games—a potential successor to the franchise’s recent pitching aces.

8. Outlook for 2026 and Beyond

Murphy’s 2026 campaign is shaping up as a crucial developmental milestone. If he thrives in Double-A, maintains health, and continues to refine his command, he could quickly become a candidate for the major league rotation by 2027. The Braves’ farm system, combined with a major league club ready to contend, creates an environment ripe for Murphy to take the next step.

For Braves fans, Owen Murphy represents more than raw numbers or minor league hype. He embodies the idea that talent, perseverance, and strategic development can create an impact far greater than prospect rankings suggest. Like Schwellenbach, he may not start as the most hyped pitcher, but his skill, approach, and resilience give him the potential to emerge as one of Atlanta’s premier arms in the coming years.