IMAGE: St. Louis Cardinals teammates surround St. Louis Cardinals outfielder Jordan Walker (18, center) as they celebrate their 3-2 win over the San Francisco Giants after Walker doubled to left, scoring shortstop Masyn Winn (not shown) and second baseman Garrett Hampson (not shown) in the bottom of the ninth inning at Busch Stadium. / USA TODAY NETWORK-USA TODAY NETWORK / Imagn Images
The St. Louis Cardinals have made it clear over the past year: the days of playing it safe in the draft are over.

With Chaim Bloom now steering the ship and a revamped player development team behind him, the Cardinals have shifted their draft philosophy toward upside-betting on talent with star potential rather than settling for polished but limited players. So when a recent 2026 mock draft projected the Cardinals to take prep shortstop Tyler Spangler at No. 13 overall, it raised some eyebrows around the league-and for good reason.

Let’s be clear: Tyler Spangler is a solid prospect. The Stanford commit has a mature approach at the plate for a high school hitter, showing strong strike-zone discipline and the ability to use the whole field.

He’s a left-handed bat with a clean swing, and there’s room for added power as he fills out physically. Defensively, he’s fundamentally sound and has a good chance to stick at shortstop, though third base could be in play down the line depending on how his body develops.

But here’s the thing-Spangler doesn’t have that one standout tool that screams future star. He’s more of a “safe floor” guy, the kind of player who might contribute across the board but isn’t likely to anchor a lineup or headline a rotation. And that’s exactly the kind of pick the Cardinals have been moving away from.

For years, under former president of baseball operations John Mozeliak, St. Louis leaned into a draft strategy that favored polish over projection-especially on the pitching side.

They often targeted college arms with low variance but limited upside. On the hitting side, they were a bit more aggressive, taking high school bats like Jordan Walker, Nolan Gorman, Dylan Carlson, and Nick Plummer in the first round.

Some of those swings have connected better than others-Carlson and Plummer didn’t pan out in St. Louis, and the jury’s still out on Walker and Gorman-but the intent was there: go get impact talent.

Now, under Bloom, that approach seems to be sharpening. The Cardinals’ 2025 draft was a clear signal of the new direction.

With their first pick, they went after Liam Doyle, a high-octane arm with top-of-the-rotation potential. Doyle brings intensity, velocity, and a ceiling that could change the shape of a pitching staff.

In the second round, they balanced things out with Ryan Mitchell, a high-contact hitter with a profile more like Spangler’s-solid, dependable, but not overwhelming. Then they doubled down on upside again in the third round with Tanner Franklin, Doyle’s college teammate, who also brings big-league tools and projection.

That kind of drafting-high ceiling early, balance later-is what makes the Spangler projection feel off. It’s not that Spangler can’t be a good player. It’s that picking him in the first round would suggest a return to a conservative draft strategy that no longer fits the Cardinals’ current identity.

There’s also a bit of organizational history here. The last time the Cardinals went this route in the first round with a similar player profile, they took Pete Kozma out of Owasso High School.

Kozma, like Spangler, was known for being well-rounded and fundamentally sound, but lacked any standout tools. He carved out a big-league career, but never lived up to the expectations of a first-round pick, finishing with a .213 career batting average and a .564 OPS.

That’s not the kind of outcome a team with playoff aspirations wants from its top draft investment.

What’s changed in St. Louis is belief-belief in their ability to develop talent, to turn raw tools into big-league production.

That belief is what drove the selection of Doyle, and it’s likely to drive future picks as well. The Cardinals aren’t just drafting for safe contributors anymore.

They’re drafting for difference-makers.

Unless something shifts dramatically in the front office’s thinking, it’s hard to imagine the Cardinals using a top-15 pick on a player like Spangler. Not when they’ve made it clear they’re betting on upside, trusting their development infrastructure, and aiming for more than just competence. They’re aiming for stars.